Yesterday’s NBA best bets served up the most delicious Meatloaf of the season; +3.20 units were earned as two of the three predictions were successful. The Indiana Pacers doubled their spread of -3.5, as they were too much for the tired Houston Rockets. That game went as predicted, but the Orlando Magic were upset by the Toronto Raptors. 

Wendell Carter only played 24 minutes and could not cover the over on his rebounding proposition. The Same Game Parlay, built on Jarrett Allen and the Cleveland Cavaliers, was a massive hit at +325. 

 

 

 

The truth is we could have teased the spread plus Allen’s points and rebounds even higher. He finished with 25 points, 17 rebounds, and the Cavaliers won by 22 points. No need to be greedy though – Rome wasn’t built in a day, nor will our NBA predictions bankroll season goal. However, there is always truth in the prophetic lyrics, ‘Two Out of Three Ain’t Bad’. 

NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 3/5

Yesterday's NBA predictions were impressive but now old news, as the Association puts forth great slate, after great slate. Today’s slate is another great one, but only one game has a spread of less than -5.0 points.

Eight games take place today, two of which are on ESPN, including the first of our NBA best bets today.

 

 

 

Heat vs. Cavaliers Prediction: Tyler Herro 4+ Threes Made (+125 on DraftKings) *BET OF THE NIGHT

Today’s Bet of the Night is at positive odds on DraftKings while negative on other sportsbooks. Within DraftKings usually the over/under selection has better odds (you just have to scroll down), but today the alternate line has slightly better odds. Take advantage because when you place daily wagers on a sport that plays daily, every little bit adds up.

Tyler Herro is the reigning Three Point Contest Champion, and he has little difficulty sinking the ball through the basket from deep. Much like yesterday’s Bet of the Night, this wager takes advantage of Herro and the Miami Heat playing against a team playing in back-to-back matches. Granted the Cleveland Cavaliers cruised to an easy victory, but playing on back-to-back games has an effect on the body. 

Herro only played 26 minutes in the Heat’s most recent match and should be well rested. He has a 37.1% three-point percentage, and although he has only made four or more in one of his last six matches, the Heat will need to score to keep pace with Cleveland. Herro has also attempted 55 threes in his last six matches, the confidence is there and so are the attempts.

Another reason for Herro to take the three-point attempts is the dynamic duo of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Cleveland purposely put Mobley on the bench with rest yesterday in anticipation for a tougher match against Miami today. Mobley is the leading candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, and Herro will find scoring much easier on the perimeter than in the interior. 

The expectation is for him to take ten or more threes and make four of them. Put a unit on the reigning Three Point Champion to score from deep against Cleveland.

 

 

 

Kings vs. Nuggets Prediction: Denver ML, Braun 15+ Points & 7+ Rebounds (+575 SPG on Bet365 [BOOSTED])

Bet365 is offering a 30% boost for any 3+ Same Game Parlay (SGP) made on an NBA wager. This bet qualifies for the boost which, if my math is correct, puts this bet at +748, not too shabby. The Denver Nuggets have had two day’s rest since their embarrassing loss to the Boston Celtics. They are also home at Ball Arena and host the Sacramento Kings tonight.

The Kings are playing much better and have won four consecutive games, and seven of their last ten. They are currently eighth in the Western Conference but only 1.0 games back from the Golden State Warriors who are sixth. It is a tight race, and they are looking to keep their momentum rolling. 

The spread is +5.5 for the Kings, which seems questionable because Denver is an offensive powerhouse. However, ‘...the toughest game on a long road stretch is the first home game back’, knowledge from Hubie Brown. With that in mind Denver’s money line is suggested for the base of this parlay. Another advantage of Bet365 is if at any point a team is up twenty the money line is cashed out.

The rest of the SGP is on the most improved player of this year, Christian Braun. Braun has grown since entering the Association in 2022, not just mentally and understanding the game. The former Kansas Jayhawk has and is ACTUALLY growing. He was listed as 6’ 5”, is currently listed as 6’ 6”, but is actually closer to 6’ 8”. He is deceptively large, deceptively powerful, and has the nickname of ‘little brother’ when receiving perfect dimes from ‘big brother’ Nikola Jokic.

Braun’s stats are quietly some of the most impressive for a player considered the last or at best fourth scoring option. He played 47 minutes against the Celtics and has played 31 or more minutes in all but one of his last ten games. The opportunities will be there because he is on the court, that is why his points and rebounds have been teased up for this match.

His point line is set at 13.5, and more on some books, so the tease is not that drastic. Braun has scored 17 or more points in three of his last four games and 16 or more in seven of his last ten matches. He averages 15.1 per game this season, and his average is well within play.  It’s not just Jokic looking for him, Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray are now seeking him in half court sets. Still Braun scores most of his points on fast breaks, as the Nuggets lead the league in fast break points. 

Braun also has the height and strength to block out most players in the NBA. He is averaging 5.2 rebounds per season, and his rebounding line is currently set at 5.5 at even odds. What is one more rebound to make a large profit SGP? 

The Association’s leading rebounder, and Kings starting center, Domantas Sabonis is still OUT with an injury and Braun will have an opportunity for another double-double. He has two games with ten rebounds since February 12 and has seven or more rebounds in five of his last ten games. 

The boost only allows a $30 max wager, and it returns $254.25. That is the suggestion for this teased up parlay. Of course, you can always add another ticket to equal out a unit at +575 without the boost. 

 

 

 

Best NBA Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 3/5

There is a matchup between two of the top four teams in the Western Conference. 

The last of our NBA best bets today comes from that match.

 

 

 

Thunder vs. Grizzlies Prediction: Zach Edey U8.5 Rebounds (-105 on Bet365)

Zach Edey makes his second appearance in this column this season. The rookie has played much better than people anticipated going into the season. His per game averages are 20.9 minutes, 9.4 points, and 7.4 rebounds, but he is playing above all of those currently. 

Edey has recorded nine or more rebounds in five of his last ten matches too. So why take the under on 8.5? The data indicates that is the best angle, and at near even odds it is a smart wager. Long gone are the days of the Oklahoma Thunder being the punching bag of opposing centers. Their season per game average, 53.7, is still in the bottom five of the Association, but that is a bit of a false narrative.

The Thunder have been a different story with Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein healthy. They have allowed the seventh fewest rebounds over the last three games, with just 48.3 per game. In addition to Holmgren and Hartenstein the Thunder have Jalen Williams and Luguentz Dort who can block out smaller rebounders. Williams is averaging over five rebounds per game too.

It is a tough assignment for the Memphis Grizzlies and Zach Edey. That is why they are +9.0 underdogs at home, the Thunder are a complete package. Put the unit on Edey to go under 8.5 rebounds against a tough Oklahoma City front court.

 

 

 

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Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All odds accurate at time of writing and NBA best bets today to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise