Meat Loaf and it is all because of Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets guy, Scottie Barnes. He delivered on his double unit rebounding bet and he covered the plus odds double-double wager. Michael Porter Jr. was well on pace to cashing in as well, but the Denver Nuggets had the Kings blown out before the end of the third quarter. 

Porter Jr did not see one second of action in the fourth quarter as the Nuggets won their fourth game in a row. Either way, 1.38 units were earned yesterday on two of three bets, and ‘two out of three ain’t bad’-- particularly with a double unit bet. 

 

There are eight games today, two of which are on TNT. But we are ignoring those games as this column focuses on some MEGA value elsewhere. Instead, Fantasy Alarm is bringing you FIVE NBA best bets today on this special leap year day… Give us a reason to party and we will capitalize. Damian Lillard is back on this column, and we are seeking a third straight successful bet on him, on three different propositions. 

The method applied to Barnes yesterday is applied to Jalen Johson today as the Atlanta Hawks play the Brooklyn Nets. The Bet of the Night is a special same game parlay with the top two Rookie of the Year candidates. Chet Holmgren and Victor Wembanyama square off in a battle of ‘bigs’ as the San Antonio Spurs host the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Expert NBA Best Bet Today, 2/29

Thunder vs. Spurs Same Game Parlay: Victor Wembanyama Over 3.5 Blocks + Chet Holmgren Over 2.5 Blocks (+350 at DraftKings)

Fantasy Alarm has been watching, playing, and betting on Victor Wembanyama for most of the season. He has cashed on points, rebounds, double-doubles, and the most successful bet has been the over on 2.5 blocks. The sportsbooks finally moved his line to 3.5 and did not drastically change the odds (stand alone +125). His odds for over 2.5 dipped below -200 and lost its value. 

Also, Wembanyama has four or more blocks in four straight games, and five of his last six. He has averaged over thirty minutes per game in his last four games and playing back at home after what was a nine game, twenty-day road trip (All-Star break in between). It is only the second home game for the Spurs this month. 

Chet Holmgren may be +550 to win the Rookie of the Year award but make no mistake it is something he desires. Wembanyama is at -700 and a clear favorite, but Holmgren can make a statement with a great performance tonight. This award is won through votes, and some voters could be persuaded with a dominating performance tonight. The Thunder have a much better record than the Spurs, and Holmgren is averaging 17.1 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. The important stat for this bet is his blocks, and he has three or more in five of his last six games. 

Oklahoma City has the longest winning streak in the Western Conference with six games, and part of that has been Holmgren’s play. In their previous match in January, Wembanyama had four blocks and Holmgren had three. This bet needs that same line from both of them for a great plus odds same game parlay; worth the unit risk on the rooks.

 

NBA Player Props for Today, 2/29

Damian Lillard Player Props: Over 4.5 Rebounds (+114 at DraftKings) *2 UNITS

Damian Lillard is back on this column as the All-Star MVP looks like a man on a mission. His numbers are up since the All-Star break, the Milwaukee Bucks are winning, and we are trusting him again. 

He was successful on his three-point attempts, assists, and now the bet is on his rebounds. The Bucks play the Charlotte Hornets for the second game in a row, and the Hornets allow the tenth most rebounds to opposing point guards. Brook Lopez is a center that spends several offensive minutes on the perimeter, which allows more space for Lillard to attack the glass.

Lillard earned nine rebounds against the Hornets in only twenty-four minutes of playing time. He has four games in a row covering this proposition, and is averaging over eight rebounds per game since the All-Star break. This could be first half, positive odds cash. This would be a betting triple crown (not a real thing) on one player.

 

Jalen Johnson Player Props: Over 9.5 Rebounds (+108 at FanDuel), to Record a Double-Double (+120 at FanDuel)

The smart bet is to simply bet on Jalen Johnson’s double-double for a slightly better return than just ten rebounds. He has scored eleven or more points in eight straight games, and that is unlikely to change with Trae Young injured. However, Scottie Barnes was a successful rebounding line and double-double line yesterday, and Johnson has a great opportunity for double digit rebounds tonight. 

He has recorded ten or more in ten straight games and six out of nine games this month. The Atlanta Hawks play the Brooklyn Nets tonight and the Nets allow the sixth most rebounds to opposing forwards. The Nets also allow the seventh most rebounds in the Association with 52.7 per game. 

Johnson will be competing with Nic Claxton and Clint Capela, two great rebounding centers. Fellow teammate Claxton has a 10.7 rebounds per game average over a ten-year career, but Johnson has played in essentially thirty-five minutes or more in every game this month (one game 34:56 played). That is the statistic that fantasy and betting participants pay attention to as a baseline – minutes equal volume and volume equals opportunity. 

The Atlanta Hawks are currently tenth in the Eastern Conference, four games ahead of the eleventh place Brooklyn Nets. The Hawks have won two in a row, and the Nets have lost eight of their last ten. This bet is simply asking Johnson to keep up his average since the All-Star break. One unit each for the plus odds props.

 

Expert NBA Predictions Today, 2/29

Wizards vs. Lakers Prediction: Under 243.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

The Los Angeles Lakers won a thriller last night against their in-town rival, the Los Angeles Clippers. LeBron James once again demonstrated why he is the best player of this century, taking over the game and sinking field goal attempts when it mattered the most. That was a great win and deserved to be celebrated, but it was a draining game as well. 

There is good and bad news about today’s game. The bad news is the Lakers have back-to-back games; the good news is it's against the worst team in the league… the Washington Wizards. The Wizards have only won nine games this year, have lost twelve in a row, allow the most rebounds per game to opposing teams, and they are starting a three-game road trip. The first two of which are in Los Angeles and for some players the game is the last thing on their mind. 

The Wizards are playing like they talk more about their summer vacation plans than the game. The Lakers leaders are older and banged up, if they should sit out, this line will likely dip down. It is the highest point total of the eight games today, and although the Wizards allow 114.3 points per game, this could be a game that the first team to 115 wins. That would leave a thirteen-point cushion for the under. No need to tease, take the under on the highest point total of the night.

 

Happy February 29th everyone! There is a bet $10, get $10 bonus bet on DraftKings, a money back (up to $5) same game parlay on the TNT games tonight (Golden State at New York & Miami at Denver) on FanDuel, as well as same game parlay insurance on BetMGM (up to $10). You might as well take advantage of these opportunities, and should your bet lose you have the opportunity to bet it again.

Thanks for reading. Remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy and betting needs across multiple sports. 

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise