Friday is a happy day for most. It is the first of the month, which some have mixed feelings about. It has become a personal goal to make Friday a successful payday for those who read this column. That is the goal every day, but especially with the weekend coming up. There are two nationally televised games and there is a bet for each of them. It is an all Western Conference showdown as ESPN presents back-to-back games. At 7:30 PM ET Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and the Dallas Mavericks host Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, and the Memphis Grizzlies. A player prop and a teased line has made for wonderful odds.
The game following the Grizzlies at Mavericks, is the Denver Nuggets traveling to the Phoenix Suns with a 10:-00 PM ET tip-off. There are several players out or questionable in this game, and there is a double unit bet to attack a line before it moves. It is the Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bet of the night.
Bet of the Night
Denver Nuggets Money Line (-130 at DraftKings 2 UNIT)
The Denver Nuggets are back on the road and on the first of back-to-back Western Conference games. They have not had a great road record, but have not had their starting lineup. As of now Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon are questionable and Nikola Jokic is probable. For Denver, it shouldn’t be a problem, because they have seen role players thrive in starting positions. Reggie Jackson and Justin Holiday have come in and contributed great minutes on both ends of the floor. Michael Porter Jr. is playing at an all-star level, and Nikola Jokic is the league’s leading MVP candidate.
The Phoenix Suns are without Bradley Beal and Damion Lee for another game, and Devin Booker, although listed as questionable, is not expected to play. He finished his game against Toronto with 32 minutes, but it was his worst performance of the season. The Phoenix Suns are also in the In-Season Tournament as a wild card. They will play Tuesday, December 5th and they will likely keep D. Booker rested for their road game against the LA Lakers. Once he is declared out after the shoot-around this line will move in favor of the Denver Nuggets. Put two units on it before the line shifts.
Same Game Parlay
Dallas Mavericks -3 & Desmond Bane Over 5.5 Rebounds (+174 at DraftKings)
The Dallas Mavericks are massive home favorites against one of the worst teams in the league. They are 9.5-point favorites on the spread and have a money line of -425 for the day. The spread seems a bit steep, even for a team as horrible as the Memphis Grizzlies. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving should have a splendid day but they have high point totals of 32.5 and 26.5 respectively. That’s 59 total points between them, and it is difficult to predict who has the better night between them, however, they both could cover.
Instead, we should attack the weakness of the Dallas Mavericks, and that is their rebounding. It has become obvious in every Mavericks game I have watched and listened to that they still do not have a commanding center. As great as the rookie Dereck Lively has been, he does not command the paint, nor play enough minutes. The Mavericks allow the second most rebounds per game in the Association, with 55.4.
Only the Washington Wizards allow more rebounds per game. Desmond Bane is not known as a rebounding stud, but he is averaging 4.5 on the season. He has gone over this line in two of his last four games, and he should be gathering long rebounds from long missed shots. He has played 34 or more minutes in all but two of his last ten games, and should see plenty of opportunities. His rebounding line is 5.5 at +114 if you prefer to have a solo betting ticket. The spread has been teased down to add a little value to the unit bet.
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Thank you for reading.
Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy
*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise