After looking at the risers in fantasy basketball drafts, it’s time to look at the players that are plummeting in drafts too. Throughout the course of an offseason, players' stock rises and falls all the time, but this close to the season typically means specific things are happening. Players are starting or coming off the bench when they are expected to do the opposite. Players have suffered injuries, and rotations have changed because of it. The thought that some of these players having their ADP drop is salivating while others show real concern with the player and his output this season. Let’s dive into the fallers since the start of October!
*Data pulled from September 14th to September 30th & October 1st to October 14th
Fantasy Basketball ADP Fallers
Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers: 45 → 48.6
I get why there is some trepidation about drafting Deni Avdija this year because it’s a different-looking Blazers team than it was last year, as they acquired Ja Morant in a trade and Damian Lillard is healthy, but let’s face facts: this is Deni Avdija’s team. Avdija is coming off an All-Star campaign that saw him average 24.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 6.7 assists on 46% shooting from the floor. He’s entering his age-26 season, and Lillard’s coming off an Achilles tear in his mid-to-late 30’s and Morant had his worst season of his career and isn’t very durable. The lower the ADP, the better because Avdija has top-20, top-15 upside.
- Verdict: Definitely buying at this ADP
Desmond Bane, Orlando Magic: 52.4 → 56.4
You want to talk about a plus fantasy player in every facet of the game? Look no further than Desmond Bane, yet his ADP has taken a small hit. This was a 20-4-4-1 player who had 48/39/91 shooting splits. That player has a falling stock in fantasy basketball drafts. For no reason at all. The Magic have a new coach that should unlock their offensive potential that Jamahl Mosley could never help out.
- Verdict: Definitely buying at this ADP
Stephon Castle, San Antonio Spurs: 55.7 → 60.3
Is this..Dylan Harper aided? The Spurs do have a VERY interesting decision on their hands with what to do with their starting lineup, especially when Tobias Harris is healthy enough to suit up. Dylan Harper is too good to play off the bench, and if he starts, Stephon Castle and De’Aaron Fox are directly impacted because Harper’s going to have the ball in his hands a lot. Castle showed his ability to be an elite playmaker last year as well as a plus rebounding guard, so if he takes a leap as a shooter this year, he’s going to easily be a top-50 nine category player even if his ADP is dropping.
- Verdict: Definitely buying at this ADP
Derik Queen, New Orleans Pelicans: 67.2 → 77
The most telling thing about Derik Queen to this point is that he’s entering the year on the Pelicans' second unit with new coach Jamahl Mosley at the helm. Mosley preached defense throughout his time in Orlando, and the Magic became one of the most potent defensive units in the league. Queen does a LOT of really good things for fantasy owners, but does that translate to real life basketball where he’s going to justify being drafted in the seventh or eighth round? I get the dip in ADP and it’s a hard pass for me despite the talent being there.
- Verdict: Still not buying at this ADP
VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers: 76.8 → 82.4
I already wrote up VJ Edgecombe as a bust in the Fantasy Basketball Cheat Sheet, and now his ADP is dropping. People are starting to realize that they’re paying six-round value for a team’s fifth option offensively. Now, Edgecombe isn’t your prototypical fifth option, and with how many games the 76ers will likely play without one or two of their “big four”, he won’t always be that low on the pecking order, but in games where they’re fully healthy, he will be. He’ll really have to shoot the leather off of the ball, which he didn’t in his rookie year, and really be an elite peripheral producer.
- Verdict: Still not buying at this ADP
Khaman Maluach, Phoenix Suns: 84.8 → 102.6
This movement that Khaman Maluach has been quite interesting to see because there was never a guarantee that Maluach would be the starter from Day 1 after Mark Williams went down. We’ve seen this preseason that the Suns have gone with Oso Ighodaro as the starter, and Maluach has worked in a reverse role. Now, Maluach has played more minutes and has been incredibly productive, but that hasn’t stopped the round-and-a-half fall in terms of his ADP over the last month. Regardless of whether or not he starts, Maluach has a much higher ceiling than Ighodaro because of his defensive prowess and ability to dominate the glass.
- Verdict: Still buying at this ADP