Happy Juneteenth, everyone! The Oklahoma City Thunder controlled game five from the tip-off to the last horn of the night. It did get close at one point in the second half, but the Thunder were able to hold off the Indiana Pacers. Tyrese Haliburton aggravated his calf, and despite playing through the game, he was ineffective for the entire night, to the point where he was unable to make a single field goal.

Chet Holmgren earned 11 rebounds, which covered the rebounding line of 8.5, and the teased-up line of 10. However, we put money on the double-double, and he managed just 9 points in almost 34 minutes of game time. Thus, the double-double proved to be too much of a risk, but a 26.7% field goal rate was not predicted. It takes a great deal of misfortune to make just 4 of 15 field goals, but perhaps that is what led to Jalen Williams' 40-point game.

It was not all bad news as the total was cleared with 5.5 points to spare, preventing what could have been a bad night. Had Holmgren scored one more point, it would have been a fantastic night.

NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 6/19

It could be the last NBA best bets article of the season, and I have given out 586 bets thus far in the 2024-25 season. With that in mind, there are five NBA best bets today. And if it is the last day, we are going out with a bang!

 

 

 

Thunder vs Pacers Prediction: Aaron Nesmith 3+ Threes Made (+160 on Bet365) *BET OF THE NIGHT 

Fantasy Alarm is building a staircase tonight, and that will make more sense later. But every staircase has a platform, and Aaron Nesmith is our platform tonight. A two-step ladder was the initial thought, but Nesmith to go over 1.5 Threes is -190 to -195 on most sportsbooks. Simply too much juice, so a unit on the teased up line at +160 on Bet365 is recommended.

He made four threes in game five and game two of the NBA Finals. He also made three in game one, oddly enough, those were all games on the road. Nesmith has made three of seven field goal attempts at Gainbridge Fieldhouse and should look to score several tonight with more attempts

Nesmith to make 5+ Threes in an NBA Finals game is still alive, and it is possible that he not only secures this best bet, but our series-long best bet as well. He has made 14 three-point field goals in the 2025 NBA Finals, and three more would cash out a +160 ticket. 

It could also make him the 2025 NBA Finals three-point leader, an accomplishment on its own. He is currently tied with Luguentz Dort of the Oklahoma City Thunder, each making 14 threes. They are the respective deep threat for their team, but Nesmith is on his homecourt, and has several reasons why he can accomplish this teased up line.

Outside of being the best three-point scorer on his team, the Pacers are up against it, down 3 - 2 to the Thunder. They must play loose and with an attitude that desires to see this series go to game seven. Haliburton is injured to the point of not scoring, and Nesmith will have more plays drawn up for him. He should have his most three-point attempts of the series tonight, and he should make at least three of them.

Put a unit on this NBA best bet at Bet365 now. The lines could move, and the value is too good to pass up. For those new to the betting app, make sure to take advantage of the promotional offer at the end of this article. 

 

 

 

Thunder vs Pacers Prediction: T.J. McConnell Over 10.5 Points & 15+ Points (-104 and +265 on FanDuel Sportsbook) 

T.J. McConnell was every bit the spark plug the Pacers needed in the second half of game five. He almost single-handedly moved the Pacers to within 2 points against the Thunder. Then in a move some are questioning, he did not return from a timeout, and Oklahoma City went on the run that essentially allowed them to win the game.

Some critics believe McConnell should have stayed in, but Pacers Head Coach Rick Carlisle said he was exhausted to the point of not being able to play. Carlisle is a top ten all-time NBA Coach, and it’s difficult to question or disbelieve someone with such credentials, but McConnell may have had a different perception.

He did play 22 minutes, which was his most since game four against the Milwaukee Bucks. That game was a 129 - 103 blowout victory in which the starters were getting rest. It is also his most minutes since March 17th, which was a 132 - 130 overtime victory against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Both of those were different scenarios from what he did in game five. It is quite possible that a large volume of scoring in a short time, driven by energy from a comeback, and the most minutes played in three months, would make someone tired. Even a professional athlete. 

However, McConnell will be more prepared for this match, perhaps that result in more passes and a somewhat slower pace. Or perhaps he plays more minutes in more bursts, but is asked to score just as much, if not more. With Haliburton down/injured, McConnell would be the one who must step up. Both in minutes and performance.

He went 8 of 14 in game five, and if he gets that many field goal attempts, not only will the set line of 10.5 points be covered, but so will the teased-up line of 15+ points. It’s a two-step ladder with +265 available for a 15-point performance. 

Trust the former Arizona Wildcat to come through in game six and ignite the fans at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Put a unit on each best bet at FanDuel Sportsbooks, and for those new to the sports betting app, make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s promotional offer for FREE bonus bets.

 

 

 

Best NBA Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 6/19

The last NBA best bet today is the last part of our staircase, and on a player who has been very kind to Fantasy Alarm.

Thunder vs Pacers Prediction: Pascal Siakam Over 0.5 Blocks & 2+ Blocks (-136 & +360 on FanDuel Sportsbook) 

Pascal Siakam has been good to Indianapolis and to our best bets column. He played so well in the last series that he earned Eastern Conference Finals MVP. And if Indiana is going to win the NBA Finals, he will likely be the Finals MVP as well. Luckily, this bet does not need his best game nor for him to play like an MVP.

Instead, the best bet for Siakam is on his blocks, of which he has recorded at least one of in each game of the NBA Finals. Some sportsbooks have his over 0.5 blocks line heavily juiced. However, Fanduel has the line set at -136, which is more than respectable. However, this best bet includes two steps, and the teased-up line of 2+ blocks at +360 is included.

It is for good reason, too. Siakam has 14 blocks in the postseason, and half of them have come in this series. He knows how difficult it is to get to the NBA Finals, as this is his second appearance in ten seasons. With Haliburton out, he also realizes that more is on his shoulders, but there is also an opportunity to cement his legacy by forcing a game seven. And possibly become the Finals MVP. 

He is stronger than Chet Holmgren and will have opportunities to block him and other Thunder players attacking the rim. Put a unit on each best bet and cheer for Siakam to display his tough defense when it is needed most. FanDuel once again offered the best two-step ladder, and if you are new to the sports betting app, make sure to utilize Fantasy Alarm’s promotional offer for FREE bonus bets.

If it is the last game of the 2024-25 season, I want to thank every Fantasy Alarm subscriber and bettor who has joined this 35-week journey. It’s only possible because of the #FAmily, and we will start it over in four short months. 

 

 

 

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Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

 

*All NBA odds accurate at time of writing and NBA best bets today to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise
 

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