The Oklahoma City Thunder dominated three of the four quarters in game seven against the Denver Nuggets. In doing so the moneyline on Denver was unsuccessful. Part of the reason Oklahoma City was able to win was their ability to limit the offense of both Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Both had one of their, if not their, worst game seven performances.

Jamal Murray put up his lowest point total of the playoffs, managing just 13 points when his team needed him most. It also caused the prediction for him to score over 21.5 points to come up short. But it was not all bad news.

Russell Westbrook’s teased-up rebounding proposition was successful, and two units were suggested on it. He played with the same energy that he has all season and successfully earned five rebounds. Exactly the amount that was needed, and at +175, only 0.25 units were lost. 

NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/20

The Conference Finals kick off, and it begins with a Northwest Division rivalry. All three NBA best bets today come from this match.

 

 

 

Timberwolves vs Thunder Prediction: Under 216.5  (-110 on Bet365) *BET OF THE NIGHT 

The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Minnesota Timberwolves at the Paycom Center for game one of the Western Conference Finals. These two franchises have played really well since April, and it is fitting that they are the two final teams in the West. Both have great defenses and are built in similar fashions.

Oklahoma has the projected MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and two big men capable of guarding the paint. Minnesota has arguably the most electrifying player in the NBA, Anthony Edwards, and a four-time defensive player of the year, Rudy Gobert, protecting anything that gets close to the basket. Meanwhile, Jaden McDaniels of Minnesota and Alex Caruso of Oklahoma City are two of the best perimeter defenders in the league.

For that set of reasons, the under is projected in tonight’s matchup. The Thunder are coming off a grueling seven-game series against the high-effort Nuggets, and Minnesota has not played since May 14th. The Thunder could be drained after a physical series, and the most emotional win for that coaching staff and roster. Minnesota has only played 10 games in the playoffs, five each series, and has proven its defense is one of the most difficult to score against during the playoffs.

Each defense will be able to focus on the opposing team’s best offensive player, and as it happens, they both are ball-dominant players. Gilgeous-Alexander and Edwards will see double teams, full-court pressure, hand checking, and each team’s best defender. Neither team has a true, consistent, offensive scorer as their second-best player, and the role players will have a tough night adjusting to a new defense.

Put a unit on this NBA best bet today, and do it at Bet365. For those new to the sports betting app, make sure to take advantage of the promotional offer at the end of this article.

 

 

 

Timberwolves vs Thunder Prediction: Minnesota 1st Quarter +2.5 (-110 at BETMGM)

The only bad quarter the Oklahoma City Thunder had in game seven was the first one, and they had slow starts to most of their 2025 playoff matches. It takes Gilgeous-Alexander a few minutes to start going to the free throw line, where he does most of his damage. Not only that, as the point guard, he looks to get his team involved early.

Particularly Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, because when they score early, defending centers and power forwards must now defend their man with less focus on Gilgeous-Alexander. This creates more open space at the top and around the paint, an area where Gilgeous-Alexander excels. However, Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle are great defenders around the rim, and what were easy field goals against Denver could be extremely difficult against the Timberwolves.

Minnesota has zero excuses for playing with anything other than max effort to begin the game. They are well-rested, have plenty of game tape, have had ample time to gameplan for the Thunder, and Oklahoma is coming off an exhausting series. The Timberwolves were also in the 2024 Western Conference Finals; they are “used” to this, and will not be experiencing the first time/nervous jitters that almost all of the Thunder coaches and players are certain to feel..

Despite that, Minnesota is given a +2.5 first-quarter spread, and it is the second-best bet of today. For those feeling dangerous, Minnesota’s first quarter moneyline is set at +154. A +2.5 spread in the first quarter for the more rested team is the suggested angle. Look for Minnesota to come out with intensity, put a unit on this best bet at BETMGM, and for those new to the app, make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s $1,500 bonus bet offer.

 

 

 

Best NBA Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 5/20

The last NBA best bet today is on a player who has been kind to this column and must step up if his team is going to win.

Timberwolves vs Thunder Prediction: Julius Randle Over 19.5 Points (-110 on FanDuel) 

Julius Randle has been everything Head Coach Chris Finch envisioned he could be for the Minnesota Timberwolves. They were both members of the New Orleans Pelicans during the 2018-2019 season, and Finch was well aware of how Randle could fit into their team. It took time for Randle to be in rhythm with his teammates, but they are now a smooth-operating team when Randle is in the lineup.

Anthony Edwards will continue to receive double teams, and that will force him to pass the ball more. Edwards has no issues passing, it falls on Randle’s ability to create good, high-percentage field goal attempts. Which, if things continue as they have, should be no issue.

Randle has scored over 19.5 points in four consecutive playoff matches and eight of ten 2025 playoff games. Both of the times he did not were in game one of round one and the Conference Semifinals. But it is not the game number but the lack of field goal attempts. He had just 11 field goal attempts in each of those games. Randle attempted 16 or more field goals in seven of the eight games he went over 19.5 points.

Even though he is a power forward, Randle is still a great scorer off the dribble. Where he has improved this season is as a scorer off the pass. Randle has the size, 6’ 9” and 249 pounds, to bang with any Thunder player, but the finesse to score against guards as well. Put a unit on this best bet today, and do it at FanDuel. For those new to the sports betting app, make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s promotional offer to earn free bonus bets.

 

 

 

Get $150 in Bonus Bets Today At Bet365 Sportsbook When You Sign Up

Ready to jump into the action? New users can score a fantastic deal with Bet365 Sportsbook without even needing a Bet365 promo code. Sign up today, place a $5 wager, and instantly receive $150 in bonus bets—win or lose! It’s one of the best offers out there, giving you extra firepower to follow our NBA picks today.

Whether you’re fading or following our NBA best bets today, this promo reduces the risk and boosts your potential payout. Head to Bet365 now to claim your $150 in bonus bets and get in on the NBA excitement! With these NBA predictions and options in hand, you’re set for a profitable night.

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy
 

*All NBA odds accurate at time of writing and NBA best bets today to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise