So close, yet so far. Austin Reaves went over his projected line total in a blowout loss to the Boston Celtics. That happens when you play the most minutes, especially when Luka Doncic and LeBron James do not play. The expectation when the bet was made, was for Doncic to play. The Philadelphia 76ers teased us with a win, but they blew out the -1 spread so much that the 1-10 margin was not successful. Nikola Jokic was one rebound and two assists away from a triple double, in what was a thrilling 23-point comeback.

There are seven games in the Association today, and Fantasy Alarm Best Bets takes advantage of last minute lines. The hope being that all information has come in on who's available, and the lines have settled. The first bet of today looks at the first match of today.

 

 

 

NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 12/6

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Brooklyn Nets: Saturday 12/6

Game Time: 5:00 PM ET | TV: NBA League Pass | Location: Barclays Center | Odds: BKN -1.5 | O/U 226.5

Prediction: Michael Porter Over 25.5 Points (-125 FanDuel Sportsbook) 

Michael Porter is having a great statistical season. With the new All-Star format of USA vs. the World, he could earn his first All-Star selection due to the lack of USA-born talent. He’s averaging career best in several metrics. His points per game average is 25.3, 6.3 more than his 2020-21 season. His assists per game average is 3.2 per game, 1.1 above his best season, and he’s averaging 7.5 rebounds per game, 0.2 more than his best season.

Put simply he has been unleashed as he’s no longer the fourth, or at best third, option on a team. It has allowed him to be more consistent with a higher volume of field goal attempts. That is exactly what this best bet needs as well. The Brooklyn Nets host the New Orleans Pelicans at the Barclays Center, and it’s a battle of the bottom. The Nets have the third-worst record in the Eastern Conference, and the Pelicans have the worst record in the Association. These two teams are a combined 8-37. 

This is good for our best bet as well. The Pelicans allow 123.4 points per game, second most in the association. It was really tempting to tease this best bet up, as Porter Jr. has scored 33 or more points in four of his last seven games. That fact, plus the second worst defense, and playing at home has the juiced up line feeling safe. AND WE WANT WINNERS! Put a unit on this best bet in the first game of the day.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Washington Wizards: Saturday, 12/6

Game Time: 7:00 PM ET | TV: Local | Location: Capital One Center | Odds: ATL -9.5 | O/U: 235.5

Ladder Prediction: Khris Middleton 5+ Assists (+149 on DraftKings Sportsbook) 1.5U

Khris Middleton 9+ Assists (+2100 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

Fantasy Alarm is going the distance with the ladder bet today. The maximum teased-up line on Khris Middleton's assists, is nine. The crazy part is he logged 12 assists against this exact same team just five games ago. The last place Washington Wizards host the Atlanta Hawks in an Eastern Conference thriller.

Middleton’s line is set at 3.5 with heavy juice on the over. The Atlanta Hawks allowed a 23-point comeback last night, and it was on their court. After that emotional loss, they had to fly to the nation’s capital to play at the Capital One Center. Two games in 26 hours, with travel, after a tough-effort loss is going to affect their defense. And field goals in the second half.

Now enters a 12-year veteran who has the experience to know which players are tired. He can capitalize on their mental errors, and physical fatigue. An NBA champion that is a leader of his team, and knows how to set up his young teammates with high percentage field goal attempts. A player averaging over 25 minutes per game, and as mentioned, dished out 12 assists against this exact same team, on the exact same court.

This ladder best bet starts with a tease to his original line with 1.5 units. One more assist hardly seems like an issue against a tired team. And if successful, Middleton’s assists return a profit regardless of the big step. Nine or more assists is going to take effort and precise scoring from his teammates. But three less assists than their previous match at +2100 is logic that can’t be passed up. Put a full unit on the second teased-up line and hope for a great game from Middleton and Washington. 

 

 

 

NBA Total Bet Today, 12/6

Alperen Sengun Over 9.5 Rebounds (-113 on DraftKings Sportsbook) 

The Houston Rockets play the Dallas Mavericks, who played on the road last night. Dallas is the third-worst rebounding team in the Association, and Houston is the best. This sets up an option for a rebounding proposition, and don’t overthink it. Put it on the point-center of Alperen Sengun. 

His double double line is set at -135, and although he’s a great facilitator of the ball, four of his last double-double games have been via points and rebounds. His over 9.5 rebounding line is at -113 on DraftKings, essentially no juice. Sengun is averaging 9.1 rebounds per game this season, and Dallas allows 48.1 rebounds per game. This is a rivalry that almost always brings out great performances. Although Sengun doesn’t have to be great, the game needs to remain competitive, and Sengun needs to attack the glass against a bad rebounding frontcourt.

Put a unit on Sengun to grab 10 or more rebounds in this Lone Star State showdown.

 

 

 

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Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy G. -
*All bets placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise. 

 

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