Yesterday was a perfect example of “so close, yet so far”. Victor Wembanayama did not suit up, and the best bet was voided. The Brooklyn Nets versus Washington Wizards game went to 235 points, getting hooked on 234.5. The Nets took advantage of an unfamiliar, winning feeling with a thirty-five-point fourth quarter, despite a blowout victory of 129 - 106. So it goes sometimes.

The Portland Trail Blazers were ahead before the Dallas Mavericks tied it up late in the fourth quarter. Then, with the last possession of the fourth quarter, Portland opted for a long pull-up three as opposed to driving to the rim. Deni Avdija fouled out in overtime, and Dallas was given a favorable whistle in the extra period. That led to them winning by five points, ruining a betting day that was so close to a sweep, yet so far from a profitable day. Such is betting.

There are 8 games today, including some teams who are playing in the second of back-to-back games after overtime. Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets today focuses on data-driven wagers for today’s wagers 

 

 

 

NBA Best Bets Today, 11/17: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - Monday

Indiana Pacers vs Detroit Pistons: Monday 11/17

Game Time: 7:00 PM ET | TV: League Pass | Location: Little Caesar Arena| Odds: DET -10.5  | O/U 230.5

The Detroit PIstons host the Indiana Pacers in a Central division battle. They are on opposite ends of the win column, and the spread is massive due to it, -10.5. The moneyline has no value at -470, but the Pacers are so committed to the full-season tank. Betting against them is wise. Detroit is on a 9-game win streak and sits in first place in the Eastern Conference. 

Doesn’t their 2023 record-breaking losing streak seem like yesterday? Several of the same players are on the roster, which is proof of how important coaching is. The crazy part of that is Monty Williams was the highest-paid coach in NBA history, only to earn the longest consecutive losing streak. Coach Williams is still getting paid by Detroit, but the Pistons are winning and couldn't care less about Williams.

Indiana Head Coach Rick Carlisle is considered one of the best coaches of all time, but the Pacers are in last place in the Association. That shows how important roster construction is. Indiana is 100% committed to getting a top-four 2026 NBA draft pick. The Pacers allow 123.2 points per game, hence why the Pistons' team total is teased up to 122.5. Detroit has gone over this line in three of their last five games, and against Indiana, it seems like a forgone conclusion. Put a unit on this teased up, plus odds best bet.

Charlotte Hornets vs Toronto Raptors: Monday 11/17

Game Time: 7:40 PM ET | TV: Local | Location: Scotiabank Arena| Odds: TOR -8.5 | O/U: 238.5

Jakob Poeltl was nice to this column two days ago, and he’s going to help the last betting day of week four, too. The Toronto Raptors host the Charlotte Hornets at Scotiabank Arena in an Eastern Conference showdown. The Raptors are 8 - 5, on a three-game win streak, and enjoy a +4.8 per game point differential. The Hornets are 4 - 9, have lost two in a row, and have a -3.3 point differential. The spread is -8.0, but the moneyline is suggested. This bet is really a focus on Poeltl, with the moneyline added to take the juice off.

Poeltl’s point line opened up at 11.5 with almost even odds. Over the night, it shifted up a point, and the odds were slightly juiced up. He’s played nine of the Raptors’ thirteen matches this season, and he has great chemistry with the Raptors' backcourt. He sets screens above the free-throw line and rolls off of them with several open looks. He has scored 20 or more points in the last two games with at least 9 field goal attempts in each.

The Hornets do not have a strong frontcourt defense, and Poeltl should have non-contested attempts throughout the night. The odds on his point line are set at -115, but by simply adding the Raptors' moneyline, this wager jumps up to +134. Put a unit on this parlay best bet today, and cheer on the Raptors' big man to get points.

 

 

 

NBA Parlay Prediction Today, 11/17

The last best bet today is a parlay on two teams from the Northwest division and their spreads. Since placing this wager last night, both spreads have moved. The Denver Nuggets have moved two points to -14.5, and the Minnesota Timberwolves have moved one point to -14.5. The odds on those spreads are currently +276 if one prefers to take the new morning line. If a bettor teases the line back down, it comes in at +213. Great odds either way. Pro tip: if you want to take advantage of sportsbooks off lines, you must look at lines/odds the night before, usually 12:01 AM ET.

The Chicago Bulls played double overtime until 10:00 PM local time, then had to fly to Denver. The Nuggets are well rested, playing at Ball Arena, and are one of three teams with a +10 point win margin. The Dallas Mavericks played in an overtime thriller last night, too. They played until 9:00 PM local time, then had to fly all the way across the country to Minnesota. The Timberwolves are rested and have a much more complete roster. Regardless of whether you take the teased down or set spread, put 0.5 on this best bet and root, root, root for the home team. If they don’t win, it’s (beyond) a shame.

 

 

 

Get $150 in Bonus Bets Today At FanDuel Sportsbook When You Sign Up

Ready to elevate your NBA betting? New users at FanDuel Sportsbook can snag $150 in bonus bets after a winning $5 wager—perfect for tailing these picks. Sign up now, deposit, and bet on any Friday matchup to unlock the offer. T&Cs apply; 21+ in eligible states. Gamble responsibly.
 

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy G. -
*All bets placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise.