Fantasy Alarm went one of three yesterday, which is never something to brag about. However securing a profit for the day is what this column is all about. And as NCAA and NFL champion head coach Barry Switzer once said, ‘We gotta job to do, and WE GONNA DO IT BABY!’ When you hit on a +232 same game parlay, it takes the pressure off the bankroll.

Naturally when we need them they don’t show up, but the Oklahoma City Thunder won against the Charlotte Hornets. However, they did not cover their spread. Evan Mobley scored over 18 points, but the Cleveland Cavaliers could not cover the 10.5 spread against the Memphis Grizzlies. Hence why a half a unit was suggested.

However, Jakob Poeltl cleared his point line by ten points, and the Raptors covered the spread by double digit points as well. Hence why a full unit was suggested. This gave NBA Best Bets an earning of +0.82 units on the day, and making a profit is the name of the game. That was yesterday. We are focused on securing a profit today. These three best bets will be in line with Sunday cleaning. Get the brooms out.
 

 

 

Brooklyn Nets vs Washington Wizards: Sunday 11/16

Game Time: 6:00 PM ET | TV: League Pass | Location: Capital One Arena | Odds: WAS -2.5  | O/U 234.5

Prediction: Total Under 233.5 (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook) 

One rarely gets the opportunity to bet on two 1-11 teams in the Association. And those rare moments should be celebrated, as should all rare, joyful moments. The lead off bet is on the Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards who are cellar dwellers of not just the Eastern Conference, but the entire NBA.

As mentioned both teams only have one win this season, and they both have not won a home game this season. They are yet to have a divisional win, and each are on an impressive losing streak. Brooklyn does have one conference win, while Washington has zero. Both of the teams have terrible offenses, and worst defenses. Neither have an impressive backcourt, and have little to no defensive front court. Put simply, they are terrible.

The decision then becomes to rely on terrible defense, or bad offense to place a best bet on. Today the answer is bad offense. Not because we are confident in teams that allow 123.3 (BKN) and 129.7 (WAS) points per game, but because the sportsbooks raised the total too high. The Nets average 108.9 and the Wizards 113.5 points per game, which is a combined 222.4 points.

The line is set 12.5 points higher than their combined average. These defenses are terrible, but so are the offenses. Good offense doesn’t produce out of thin air like rain. In fact, it’s much easier to improve team defense than it is to produce good offense. Hence why a 50% field goal scorer is considered elite. As crazy as it is to say, trust the Wizards and Nets defense to keep this game under 234.5 points. Put a unit on this best bet today.
 

 

 

Sacramento Kings vs San Antonio Spurs: Sunday 11/16

Game Time: 4:00 PM ET | TV: Local | Location: Frost Bank Center | Odds: SA -8.5 | O/U: 239.5

Prediction: Victor Wembanyama Under 12.5 Rebounds (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook) 

Victor Wembanyama is one of the most entertaining basketball players in the Association. The basketball world has never seen such a tall person be as agile and fluid while maintaining an aggressive style of play. His rebounding can be a little erratic at times too. Although he’s averaging 12.9 rebounds per game, he has less than 12.5 rebounds in five of his last six games.

Today the San Antonio Spurs host the Sacramento Kings in an early 3:00 PM local tip-off. The Kings are tied for eighth fewest rebounds allowed to opposing teams. Wembanyama is dealing with the reigning, three consecutive rebounding title center of the Kings. Domantas Sabonis. Also Russell Westbrook continues rebounding well, oftentimes earning double-double or triple-double performances.

The Kings have great rebounders in their front and back court that will present issues for Wembanyama. He has also been playing around the perimeter on offense. He has attempted 33 threes in the past four games, and has a 34.7% this season. Low offensive rebounding numbers are a key factor in this best bet. Put a unit on Wembanyama to have less than 12.5 rebounds today.
 

 

 

NBA Win Margin Bet Today, 11/16

Portland Trail Blazers 1- 10 Win Margin (+180 DraftKings Sportsbook) 

In Fantasy Alarm’s pursuit of researching for good betting angels, new data arises. One theory which has been put to the test is a winning margin when the spread calls for a slight advantage. There are only three teams averaging a scoring margin over 10 points. Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, and Houston Rockets. Today’s bet is on the Portland Trail Blazers and Dallas Mavericks.

The Trail Blazers have an average scoring margin of -0.3, and the Mavericks -6.5. The spread in their game today is -4.5 in favor of the visiting team, Portland. The moneyline is at -170, which isn’t bad, and they should cover the spread which isn’t a bad bet either. The best bet is the win margin 1 - 10 at +180 on FanDuel.

This allows forgiveness on the spread, and takes the juice off the moneyline. The opportunity of winning by more than ten is possible, but Dallas is playing better than they were earlier this season. Dallas doesn’t rebound well, allowing the fourth most to opponents. However they are at home, and are beginning to find rhythm in their starting five. Anthony Davis is not himself, but could sit this match out as well. Put a unit on this best bet at plus odds.
 

 

 

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