Thursday's four-game NBA slate tips off with Raptors vs. 76ers and Pistons vs. Wizards at 7 p.m. ET, and our NBA best bets target two game totals and a full card of player props.
Fatigue and missing stars drive tonight's best spots. LeBron James is out for Philadelphia, Toronto played without Scottie Barnes and Kawhi Leonard on Wednesday and is on the second night of a back-to-back, and Washington is also playing its second game in two nights against the league's best defense. We're targeting the Under in both early games in our NBA picks today. New to Rebet Sportsbook? You can grab $100 in bonus bets when you sign up and put it to work on tonight's NBA predictions.
NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 11/12
Our NBA best bets for Thursday are Raptors vs. 76ers Under 224.5 and Pistons vs. Wizards Under 220.5. On the prop side, we're featuring Kyrie Irving Over 18.5 points and VJ Edgecombe Over 5.5 rebounds, with more player props listed below. Shop around before you bet.
Raptors vs. 76ers Prediction: Thursday, 11/12
Pick: Under 224.5
Both offenses are missing key pieces. Philadelphia is without LeBron James, and the 76ers already rank 22nd in offensive efficiency at 107.6 points per 100 possessions, according to ESPN's Hollinger team stats, with a 50.9% effective field goal percentage that sits in the bottom 10. Toronto played without Scottie Barnes and Kawhi Leonard in Wednesday's loss to Boston and is now on the second night of a back-to-back.
The defenses give this Under a strong foundation. Philadelphia allows 107.1 points per 100 possessions, eighth-best in the league, and both teams rank in the bottom 10 in three-point shooting. The betting market agrees, with roughly 86% of bets and 98% of the handle at DraftKings on the Under.
The risk is pace, as Toronto plays at a quick 103.6 tempo, and the last two 76ers games went over. But the total has already dropped to 222.5 at most books, so 224.5 gives us two points of cushion. Under 224.5 is our first of Thursday's NBA best bets.
Pistons vs. Wizards Prediction: Thursday, 11/12
Pick: Under 220.5
Detroit has the best defense in the NBA, allowing just 102.4 points per 100 possessions, and Washington's offense ranks 23rd at 106.6. The Wizards are on a five-game losing streak in which they've lost by an average of 17 points, and they're playing on the second night of a back-to-back after Wednesday's loss in Indiana.
Washington also struggles on the glass with a 46.8% rebound rate, one of the lowest in the league, which limits second-chance points, and Detroit has won the last five meetings in the nation's capital.
The risk is Monday's meeting, a 122-111 Detroit win that went well over this number, and about 68% of the money is on the Over. But on tired legs against the league's top defense, we expect Washington to struggle to score. Under 220.5 rounds out our game picks among today's NBA best bets.
Best NBA Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 11/12
Kyrie Irving Over 18.5 Points
Irving is averaging 22.9 points and has cleared this line in three of his last four games, including 35 points with seven threes against Indiana on Monday. He's averaging 32.8 minutes and 20 shot attempts per game in November.
Minnesota's defense ranks second in the league, which is the main risk, and the Timberwolves are 5.5-point home favorites.
Still, Irving has scored at least 14 points in every game this season, and with a 225.5 total, Dallas will need his scoring in a competitive game. At this volume, he can clear 18.5 even on a below-average shooting night.
VJ Edgecombe Over 5.5 Rebounds
With LeBron James out, Edgecombe takes on a bigger share of the rebounding. He grabbed 13 and eight rebounds in the two games James missed earlier this season, and he's cleared 5.5 in seven of 11 games overall.
James averages 7.4 rebounds, and Philadelphia's 47.7% team rebound rate means the 76ers need their wings to crash the glass. Edgecombe is playing at least 32 minutes a night in November.
His last few games have been lighter, which is the risk. But Toronto is on the second night of a back-to-back, and his role grows without James on the floor.
More player props we like on Thursday's slate:
- Kyshawn George Over 13.5 Points: George is averaging 21.8 points in November and has cleared this line in eight of his 12 games.
- Naz Reid Over 2.5 Three-Pointers: Reid is averaging 2.5 made threes, and Phoenix allows 14.8 made threes per game, 26th in the NBA.
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