After a three-game opening night, the NBA season hits full speed Wednesday with 11 games on the schedule. Our NBA best bets for the night include an underdog in Memphis, a favorite in Los Angeles, and two player props built on volume.
NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 10/21
Our NBA best bets for Wednesday start with the Jazz +2.5 at Memphis and the Lakers -6.5 at home against Golden State. On the prop side, we're taking Trae Young Over 9.5 assists and Zach Edey Over 10.5 rebounds.
Opening-week lines move quickly as injury news comes in, so shop around before you bet. Here's our full breakdown of each pick.
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Prediction: Wednesday, 10/21
Pick: Jazz +2.5
Utah spent years rebuilding, and this is the season that work is supposed to pay off. The Jazz now have a real core in Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson, Keyonte George, Ace Bailey, and No. 2 overall pick Darryn Peterson. They finished 22-60 last season, but this roster looks nothing like that team.
The preseason backed that up. Utah went 3-1, closing with a 119-116 road win over Phoenix and holding Denver to 97 points in another win. Exhibition results only tell us so much, but the Jazz looked organized on both ends.
Memphis went 25-57 last season and is a 2.5-point home favorite with a 242.5 total at DraftKings. We don't see enough separation between these teams to lay points with the Grizzlies, and Utah's frontcourt of Markkanen and Jackson gives it the edge on paper. Take the Jazz +2.5, with a sprinkle on the moneyline if you want more upside.
Warriors vs. Lakers Prediction: Wednesday, 10/21
Pick: Lakers -6.5
Golden State's injury report is the story here. Jimmy Butler (ACL), Moses Moody (knee), and Brandin Podziemski (back) are all out, Kristaps Porzingis isn't with the team, and Stephen Curry is probable with right ankle soreness. Even if Curry plays, the Warriors are short on depth and size.
The Lakers are much healthier. Luka Doncic, who averaged 33.5 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 8.3 assists last season, is good to go, and so is Austin Reaves. Los Angeles is missing Cameron Carr and Adou Thiero, with Collin Sexton questionable, but none of those absences touch its top end.
Yes, the Warriors beat the Lakers twice in the preseason, but Doncic sat out both games. The Lakers went 13-9 against the spread as favorites of 6.5 or more last season, and the total sits around 234. Doncic against a depleted Golden State roster is a mismatch. Lakers -6.5 rounds out the sides among our NBA best bets.
Best NBA Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 10/21
Trae Young Over 9.5 Assists
Young led the league in assists two seasons ago at 11.6 per game, and his career average sits at 9.8. Injuries limited him to 15 games last season, but he still averaged 8.0 assists in just 25.6 minutes per game.
His preseason turnover numbers raised some eyebrows, but he called that intentional overpassing to get his new teammates involved. With Anthony Davis as his roll man, rookie AJ Dybantsa sidelined, and the Wizards favored by 4.5 against a Milwaukee team starting its post-Giannis era, Young should have the ball in his hands all night.
Zach Edey Over 10.5 Rebounds
Edey was limited to 11 games last season by a left ankle injury, but he averaged 11.1 rebounds in only 25.8 minutes when he played. His preseason minutes climbed from 16 to 21 by the exhibition finale, and Memphis needs its 7-foot-4 center on the glass if it wants to hold off a much-improved Utah team.
We like the Jazz to cover, but that doesn't conflict with this prop. A 242.5 total points to a fast, high-possession game with plenty of missed shots, and a competitive game keeps Edey on the floor late. Even with Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson in Utah's frontcourt, nobody on the floor can match Edey's size around the rim.
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Then check back with Fantasy Alarm every day for new NBA best bets, picks, and predictions all season long.