Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs

Total: 7

Cubs -140

Gameplay Predictions


  • Nolan Arenado belted a home run in Game 163 yesterday against the Dodgers. It was his 38th of year which led the entire National League.

  • Kyle Freeland has allowed three earned runs or less in 13 consecutive outings and in 19 of his final 20 starts of the year.

  • Freeland faced the Cubs earlier this year and picked up a win, going seven innings while allowing three runs and striking out five.

  • Freeland actually struggled MORE on the road posting a 3.23 ERA compared to a 2.40 mark at home.

  • Against left-handed pitching this year, the Rockies ranked 3rd in OPS, 2nd in ISO and 2nd in wOBA.

  • Five guys on the Rockies roster have taken Jon Lester deep; Nolan Arenado , Matt Holliday , Chris Iannetta , DJ LeMahieu and Carlos González

  • Holliday has the best numbers in terms of BvP off of Lester as he’s gone 10-for-27 with the homer and four runs batted in.

  • Trevor Story , Nolan Arenado and DJ LeMahieu all ended the year hitting .325 or better and with wOBA’s at .389-plus against left-handed pitching.

  • The season series between these two teams are knotted at three wins a piece.


  • Anthony Rizzo finished the season with 101 runs batted in. That was the fourth consecutive season he’s accomplished that feat.

  • Jon Lester comes into this start winning three consecutive starts and four of his last five.

  • Lester, much like Freeland, comes into this game hot, allowing three earned runs or fewer in eight straight games. He’s thrown two shutouts over his last three games.

  • Lester faced the Rockies earlier in the year and won his start, just like Freeland did, throwing 5.2 innings allowing two runs (zero earned) while striking out five.

  • Javier Báez , Kris Bryant and Ben Zobrist are the three Cubs hitters with numbers that stand out against left-handed pitching. Baez hit .306 with a .395 wOBA, Bryant notched .372 AVG and .473 wOBA while Zobrist batted a cool .333 with a .352 wOBA.

  • Daniel Murphy comes into this game really hot, hitting .381 with a .910 OPS over his last 10 contests.

  • The Cubs ranked 6th in AVG vs. LHP, but everything else was league average - 13th in OPS, 14th in wOBA.

  • Willson Contreras has only hit one home run since August 1st and has just three since the All-Star break.

Pregame Props

1. Either team scores in the 1st Inning YES 4 / NO 1.7

NO. Everything in this one feels like a pitchers dual. Both pitchers have faced today’s opponent and both picked up a win and looked really good in doing so. Also, we only have a seven run implied total, so I don’t expect there to be a lot of offense in this one.

2. Either team has a 3 up, 3 down Inning YES 3.4 / NO 2.1

YES. With the amount of playoff experience Jon Lester has, it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest bit to see him come out and shut the door right away.

3. A COL batter reaches a full count in the 1st Inning YES 3.8 / NO 1.8

NO. Because I answered YES in question two, this is kind of contingent on the answer to that one. I expect a quick, efficient inning for the veteran southpaw and a young, anxious Rockies team could be up there hacking.

4. COL leadoff batter reaches base YES 5 / NO 1.5

NO. Charlie Blackmon is really, really good, and he even hits lefties well, but I’m going all in with Lester here and going with the answer to question two as I expect him to have a 1-2-3 inning.