Looking for the best Underdog Fantasy MLB picks today? Our Underdog MLB Pick'em predictions for Thursday, May 14, 2026, spotlight two MLB player props worth targeting on today’s action-packed MLB slate. The lines for Yordan Alvarez’s fantasy points and Griffin Canning’s hits allowed both come with clear situational edges backed by current form, matchup data, and recent trends. If you are building your Underdog Pick'em entry for today’s MLB slate, here is the full case for where we land on both and why the MLB DFS projections set up the way they do.

What are the Best Underdog MLB Pick'em Picks Today?

Today’s two best Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick'em plays are Yordan Alvarez over 7.5 fantasy points and Griffin Canning over 4.5 hits allowed. Both props are supported by matchup data, current streaks, and favorable line construction heading into an action-packed day of baseball. Read below for the complete analysis on each.

 

 

 

Yordan Alvarez OVER 7.5 Fantasy Points

Is a matchup against the struggling Luis Castillo just what the doctor ordered for Yordan Alvarez? I think it might be! The Houston slugger may only be hitting .217 over his last seven games, but the BvP truthers will love his career numbers against Castillo, and take a moment to gush over these numbers:

2026 Stats

OPS

ISO

wOBA

Home

1.153

.350

.482

Vs. RHP

1.016

.282

.430

Home vs. RHP

.996

.250

.419

 

Castillo is off to a rough start, and just like most of his time in Seattle, he’s been far worse away from home. Across 18 innings on the road this year, Castillo has posted a 7.50 ERA, .316 BAA, 1.72 WHIP, and 5.72 FIP. Left-handed hitters have given him fits this season, to the tune of a 1.69 HR/9 and .374 wOBA. The veteran has a 6.11 FIP and 2.40 HR/9 over his last three starts, and earlier this year against Houston (at home), he surrendered seven earned runs on 10 hits across just 3.1 IP.

One big swing gets it done, and I think Alvarez can do just that.

Griffin Canning OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed

Griffin Canning has allowed a .278 BAA and 1.61 WHIP across two starts this season, and while he’s done a fairly good job at missing bats, problems have occurred when he hasn’t done that. Again, small sample size, but a .391 BABIP is far from ideal, and this Milwaukee lineup can be quite pesky on opposing starters.

Over the last two weeks, the Brewers have the fourth-best average (.261) and fourth-lowest strikeout rate (18.9%) in baseball! If we look just at the month of May against RHP, the Brewers are hitting .280 (3rd-best) with a .343 BABIP (2nd-highest), and 107 wRC+ (9th-highest).

Canning should be able to handle ~90 pitches today, and I like the Brewers’ bats to get to him throughout this one.

 

 

 

Claim Your Underdog Fantasy Promo Code Bonus

If you have not yet signed up for Underdog Fantasy, there is no better time than tonight. New users who register using promo code ALARM will receive a free pick plus $50 instantly, giving you real money to work with on this slate and every MLB game going forward. Visit fantasyalarm.com/offers to lock in your bonus before the evening games get underway.