Quick Summary of Today’s Top Underdog MLB Picks: 

The 2026 MLB season is now in full swing. It’s been an entertaining first week of baseball with plenty of highlights, storylines, and breakout players to watch. Let’s now focus on the Tuesday, April 28th slate of games with our top Underdog MLB Picks. We’ll break down a pair of MLB DFS projections to lock in as you enjoy today’s action. 

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Underdog Fantasy MLB Picks: Tuesday, 4/28

Joe Ryan MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher Than 5.5 Strikeouts

It’s been an up-and-down season for Joe Ryan thus far. The Minnesota Twins’ right-hander owns a 3.90 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over his first 6 starts. He’s coming off a rough outing, in which he allowed 7 runs to the Mets. Let’s count on Ryan bouncing back at home against the Seattle Mariners tonight, though, at least in the strikeout department. 

Ryan’s underlying 2.98 xERA and 3.22 FIP suggest some better outings moving forward. He’s averaging 5.5 strikeouts per start so far, but he can be higher than that in today’s matchup. The Mariners have a 24.4% strikeout rate against righties this season, which is the 3rd-highest mark in the majors. Over the past week in the split, Seattle has a 25.3% K rate (4th-highest in MLB) and just a 5.5% walk rate (2nd-lowest).

It’s a favorable home spot for Ryan to rack up strikeouts. In his two home outings so far, the Twins’ starter has 7 and 6 punchouts. Last year, he posted a 30.0% K rate at home compared to 26.3% on the road. He also averaged 6.6 strikeouts per home start in 2025. The Mariners, meanwhile, have a 27.9% K rate on the road vs. right-handers this year (2nd-highest). 

  • MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Joe Ryan Higher Than 5.5 Strikeouts 

 

 

 

Yordan Alvarez MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher Than 7.5 Fantasy Points

Yordan Alvarez has been arguably the best hitter in the league this season. The Houston Astros’ star outfielder boasts a .358 batting average (2nd in MLB), .505 wOBA (1st), and 1.220 OPS (1st) over the first month of action. He’s also smashed a league-best 11 home runs with 26 RBI, which is the 2nd-most. 

Let’s count on Alvarez’s hot start continuing on Tuesday in a favorable matchup. Baltimore Orioles starter Shane Baz has a 5.08 ERA and 1.55 WHIP over his first 5 starts. The right-hander has especially struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing a .373 average and 1.005 OPS in the split. 

It sets up well for Alvarez, who’s hitting .329 with a 1.139 OPS against righty pitchers thus far. He’s batting .413 with a 1.275 OPS over the last 12 games as well. He also has 2+ combined hits, runs, and RBI in 10 of the last 12 games, and in 20 of 29 games this season. That provides a strong floor to finish higher than 7.5 fantasy points. 

  • MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Yordan Alvarez Higher Than 7.5 Fantasy Points