Quick Summary of Today’s Top Underdog MLB Picks: 

The 2026 MLB season is now in full swing. It’s been an entertaining first month of baseball with plenty of highlights, storylines, and breakout players to watch. Let’s now focus on the Saturday, July 4th slate of games with our top Underdog MLB Picks. We’ll break down a pair of MLB DFS projections to lock in as you enjoy today’s action. 

 

 

 

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Underdog Fantasy MLB Picks: Saturday, 7/4

Wilyer Abreu MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher Than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI

The lefty-on-lefty matchup usually favors the pitcher. However, we have some interesting reverse splits to exploit when the Boston Red Sox take on the Los Angeles Angels today. The numbers point to Wilyer Abreu having a good night at the plate against Sam Aldegheri. 

Aldegheri has a shaky 4.85 ERA and 1.45 WHIP for the Angels this season. The southpaw also recently gave up five and six runs in back-to-back starts in June. More notably, he’s struggled against left-handed batters. In the split, Aldegheri is allowing a .387 batting average and 1.099 OPS. Meanwhile, he’s holding righties to a .212 average and .612 OPS. 

That brings us to Abreu. The Boston outfielder is crushing left-handed pitching this year, with a .359 batting average and .934 OPS against them. The lefty hitter has conversely had issues vs. right-handers. It also helps that Abreu is hitting .277 with an .819 OPS on the road. 

Parker Messick MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher Than 6.5 Strikeouts

Parker Messick has had a few shaky outings lately, but he’s still putting up All-Star numbers this season. The Cleveland Guardians’ left-hander owns a 2.85 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over 17 starts so far. Let’s count on Messick to rack up strikeouts in today’s matchup against the Chicago White Sox. 

The southpaw owns a 26.5% strikeout rate this year, which ranks in the 75th MLB percentile. He has 106 punchouts in 101 innings, while averaging 6.2 Ks per start. This 6.5 line is high, but Messick has the upside to hit it. He has six or more strikeouts in 10 of his 17 starts this season. He also has seven or more strikeouts in four of his last 10 outings. 

More importantly, Messick gets a favorable matchup here. The White Sox have the 5th-highest strikeout rate in the league against left-handed pitching this season, at 24.9%. That rate has increased to 26.6% vs. lefties over the past month. Plus, in this stretch, Chicago has a league-low 3.7% walk rate against southpaws.