Welcome to Fantasy Alarm's MLB DFS picks and daily fantasy playbook for Tuesday, July 21st. Our MLB DFS projections combine advanced pitching metrics, platoon splits, strikeout prop data, and ownership positioning to identify the sharpest plays on every slate. Whether you are targeting DFS Projections, running lineups through our DFS Optimizer, tracking ownership trends, or checking confirmed lineups, Fantasy Alarm has the tools to sharpen your edge. 

This MLB DFS playbook covers every key position on DraftKings and FanDuel with our best MLB DFS picks for today.

Slate: 13-Game Main | Lock Time: 7:05 pm ET, Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

Vegas Totals: WAS/COL (highest-projected game), PIT/NYY - SF/KC - ATH/ARI (tied for second-highest game total), SD/ATL - NYM/MIL - MIA/HOU - STL/LAA (tied for third-highest game total)

Highest K-Projections: Chase Burns 6.5 O/U (-148), Luis Castillo 5.5 O/U (-150), Ranger Suarez 5.5 O/U (-110), Will Warren 5.5 O/U (+107), Kevin Gausman 5.5 O/U (+110), Kyle Bradish 5.5 O/U (+116), Matthew Liberatore 5.5 O/U (+126)

MLB Weather Today, 7/21

PIT @ NYY - A lot of storms in the area that are likely to cause an interruption in play at some point. Anything from a late start to postponement is on the table, so this will require an update. 

UPDATE: Pirates at Yankees has been postponed due to inclement weather. 

BAL @ BOS - Plenty of storms here as well that will need an update closer to game time. There is a chance they play a clean game if the first line of storms fizzles out. 

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers

MLB DFS Top Pitchers

Chase Burns (CIN)

Analysis: We can throw out the most recent start for Burns, as he tweaked his groin in the second inning of his start against the Phillies. He was clearly bothered by it as he walked six in the game and then sat out the All-Star Game. He has had 12 days of rest since then, and it is unlikely the Reds would risk re-aggravation if he wasn't back to 100%. There is always risk of that with soft tissue injuries, and there are some workload concerns since he hasn't pitched in nearly two weeks. A fade is viable, but Burns also clearly has the highest upside on the slate.  

Kevin Gausman (TOR)

Analysis: With Suarez getting scratched and legitimate weather concerns in Boston, there aren't many pitching options to spend up for. The Rays are not a team I typically pick on when selecting DFS pitchers, and Gausman is no longer the elite pitcher he once was. However, he does still have the ability to be dominant at times. 

Kyle Bradish (BAL)

Analysis: We already lost the New York game to weather, so be sure to keep an eye out for the status of this game in Boston. If it is clear to play, Bradish is an upside option who will attempt to halt the scorching-hot Red Sox. The righty has flashed big strikeout upside multiple times this season, and he's been working deep into games lately.  

MLB DFS Value Pitchers

Luis Castillo (SEA)

Analysis: Well, this is one of the most uncomfortable chalk spots of the season, as Castillo brings a 4.93 ERA and a below-average 20.8% strikeout rate into the game. He does draw an elite matchup against a Reds team that has managed just a 90 wRC+ against righties while striking out at the second-highest rate in baseball. There are also some numbers under the hood (like a 63% strand rate) that suggest Castillo has been a little unlucky this season. 

Brandon Sproat (MIL)

Analysis: Sproat has struggled to a 5.16 ERA this season, but he has also flashed upside that makes him one of the game's best young pitching prospects. He draws a plus matchup with a Mets team that owns a 92 wRC+ against righties. 

Noah Schultz (CWS)

Analysis: Schultz is another huge upside arm that has struggled to put it all together in the big leagues so far. On the plus side, he is going to be far less popular than the other three value options on this list, which makes him appealing for tournaments. The towering lefty gets a high-upside but risky matchup against a Rangers team that has hit southpaws well (109 wRC+), but they have also struck out at the fifth-highest rate. 

Matthew Liberatore (STL)

Analysis: Liberatore has been disappointing this season after it looked like he had taken a step forward in his first full season in the rotation last year. He's been better lately with two strong outings against the Braves and holding his own against a Cubs team that rakes against lefties. The matchup for him tonight is elite, as the Angels have struck out at the highest rate in baseball against lefties.  

Top Options For Strikeouts

K-prop lines and value ratings are incorporated below for DFS and prop context. These are the arms building the highest strikeout ceilings on the 13-game slate.

Our model identifies these arms as the highest-ceiling plays for Alt-K lines today:

Chase Burns: 28.6% K% (10.3 K/9)

Ranger Suarez: 25.8% K% (9.6 K.9)

Kyle Bradish: 23.3% K% (8.9 K/9)

Walbert Urena: 22.0% K% (8.6 K/9) 

Matthew Liberatore: 21.4% K% (8.5 K/9)

Luis Castillo: 20.8% K% (8.3 K/9)

Best Odds For A Win

The following MLB DFS picks offer a combination of favorable win odds, sustainable ERA and xFIP metrics, and soft opponent matchups. Each carries K-prop lines worth noting alongside their DFS value at reduced ownership relative to the top tier.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Stacks & Hitters

MLB DFS Top Hitters

James Wood (OF, WAS), CJ Abrams (SS, WAS), & Luis Garcia (1B, WAS)

Analysis: The Nationals get another elite spot in Coors Field. The lefties stand out tonight, as Lorenzen has been smashed by lefties this season for a .251 ISO. Impressively, all three of the Nats' top lefties have an ISO of at least .268 against righties. 

Hunter Goodman (C, COL) & Mickey Moniak (OF, COL)

Analysis: These two Rockies sluggers both have an ISO above .310 against righties this season. Mikolas has allowed power to both sides of the plate, but righties have hit him hardest if you need a tiebreaker to separate them. However, it is certainly viable and probably preferred to just play them together. 

Jac Caglianone (1B/OF, KC)

Analysis: Caglianone exploded with a monster performance last month. He has come back to earth a bit, but he still has taken a massive step forward from last season. He is up at a .217 ISO against righties this year. 

Casey Schmitt (3B, SF) & Rafael Devers (1B, SF)

Analysis: The Giants will enjoy a park upgrade for offense and excellent hitting weather in Kansas City. They also draw a plus matchup against an inexperienced righty and a bad bullpen. Schmitt is at a .219 ISO against righties this year, while Devers is all the way up at a .291 ISO. 

MLB DFS Value Hitters

Lane Thomas (OF, KC) & Nick Loftin (3B, KC) 

Analysis: Thomas has had a nice bounce-back this season for the Royals, and Loftin has certainly taken a step forward from last season. They should both draw premium spots in the order, especially if Witt is unable to play. 

Kyle Karros (3B, COL)

Analysis: Karros struggled in the early part of the season, but he has exploded since the calendar flipped to June. He has posted a 152 wRC+ since then, and now he draws an elite matchup against Mikolas and a bad Washington bullpen. 

Bryce Eldridge (1B, SF) & Willy Adames (SS, SF)

Analysis: Adames has well-documented reverse-splits in his career, and he homered off a righty last night. Tonight, he gets another matchup with a reverse-splits righty in an elite hitter's park. Eldridge is enjoying a massive breakout that has him looking like one of the best young hitters in the game. 

Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (2B/3B, ATH)

Analysis: The A's rookie is off to a blistering start to his career, with 25 hits in his first 60 at-bats. Last night, he took a foul ball off a very unpleasant area, so hopefully he is back in the lineup tonight. Assuming he is, he draws a great matchup against a lefty making his MLB debut who doesn't have particularly impressive numbers at Triple-A this season. 

MLB DFS Top Stacks

Primary Stack: Washington Nationals vs Michael Lorenzen (COL RHP)

Why: There is a massive game total in Coors Field with Lorenzen and Mikolas squaring off. Lorenzen has been especially vulnerable to lefties this season, but he has also been reverse-splits for most of his career. Regardless of which side of the plate they swing from, all Nationals are in play.  

Targets: James Wood, CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia, Curtis Mead, Dylan Crews, Keibert Ruiz

Primary Stack: Colorado Rockies vs Miles Mikolas (WAS RHP)

Why: The Rockies are projected to be just as popular as the Nats, if not even more so since they are more affordable and also check in with an implied team total above six runs. Mikolas has struggled with power issues in both splits in recent years. 

Targets: Hunter Goodman, Mickey Moniak, Jake McCarthy, TJ Rumfield, Kyle Karros, Cole Carrigg

Primary Stack: San Francisco Giants vs Luinder Avila (KC RHP)

Why: The Giants get a massive park upgrade for offense playing in Kansas City. They get a matchup with an inexperienced righty who has struggled with control. He doesn't work deep into games, and he's backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball. 

Targets: Casey Schmitt, Rafael Devers, Bryce Eldridge, Heliot Ramos, Luis Arraez 

“Contrarian” Stack: New York Yankees vs Bubba Chandler (PIT RHP)

Why: Chandler has been tough on righties, but lefties have crushed him for a .204 ISO. That lefty power problem is a horrible thing for his matchup in Yankee Stadium tonight, as New York is loaded with lefties. Keep an eye on the weather, but if the game is playable, Yankees lefties make for an elite stack. 

UPDATE: The Yankees game has been postponed for inclement weather. 

Targets: Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, Jazz Chisholm, Jasson Dominguez

"Contrarian" Stack: Kansas City Royals vs Tyler Mahle (SF RHP)

Why: The Royals are a strong stack even if Witt (back) is unable to play. Their home park has played as a hitter's haven all season long, and they draw a good matchup against Mahle, who has been vulnerable to power this season. 

Targets: Jac Caglianone, Carter Jensen, Vinnie Pasquantino, Lane Thomas, Salvador Perez, Michael Massey

MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters & Pitchers

The "Chalk" (Popular)

The "Pivot" (Low

Owned)

The Winning Logic
Castillo (SP, chalk)Liberatore (SP, lower owned)Castillo is in an undeniably great spot, but he is no longer an elite pitcher and can certainly be faded. Save some salary by going down to Liberatore, who is in a great spot of his own. 
Nationals (Chalk)Royals (pivot stack)There's a massive game total in Coors, which is leading to an affordable stack in a great offensive environment being under-owned. 
Lile + Ruiz (chalk)Caglianone + Jensen (lower owned)The Nats are going to be highly owned, while the Royals are going completely overlooked despite an implied run total of nearly five runs. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The foundation for every MLB DFS lineup you build today. These are the core MLB DFS picks by position across DraftKings and FanDuel.

  1. Chase Burns (SP1)
  2. Luis Castillo (SP2)
  3. James Wood (Core Bat)
  4. Hunter Goodman (Core Bat)
  5. Jac Caglianone (Core Bat) 
  6. Kyle Karros (Core Value Bat)
  7. Lane Thomas (Core Value Bat)

Player Pool

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Stacks

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