Alright, let's get into it. Thursday's 5-game early window is stacked with storylines: Dylan Cease is in the middle of one of the great individual months in Blue Jays history, Ryan Johnson is walking into Camden Yards with a start that looks downright dangerous to roster against, and this Reds lineup has more juice in the individual bats than the team-wide numbers let on. This is a fun little slate to attack. For the sharpest MLB DFS picks and daily fantasy baseball playbook for the early slate on DraftKings and FanDuel, run your build through the DFS Optimizer, track live ownership trends, check confirmed lineups, and grab the full MLB DFS projections at FantasyAlarm.com. Let's build some winning rosters.

MLB Weather Today, 8/6

Angels vs Orioles – Partly cloudy, 92°F, 52% precip, 6 mph wind at Camden Yards. The rain chance here is real and worth watching closer to lock.

Athletics vs Reds – Mostly cloudy, 85°F, 6% precip, 5 mph wind at Great American Ball Park.

Mets vs Guardians – Partly cloudy, 83°F, 43% precip, 9 mph wind at Progressive Field.

Pirates vs Brewers – Partly cloudy, 78°F, 5% precip, 8 mph wind at American Family Field.

Blue Jays vs Cubs – Cloudy, 76°F, 31% precip, 4 mph wind at Wrigley Field.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers

MLB DFS Top Pitchers

Dylan Cease (TOR)

This is the arm to build around today, plain and simple. Cease is in the middle of one of the great individual months in Blue Jays history, a 1.00 ERA in July, the fourth-lowest calendar-month ERA by a Blue Jays starter ever, with the best opponent batting average of any Toronto starter in that stretch. And this isn't some hot-streak mirage either: the season-long peripherals back it up completely, a 2.41 ERA supported by a 2.30 FIP and 2.67 xFIP, all singing the same tune. His 13.12 K/9 is comfortably the best rate on the board today, and a 1.08 WHIP with a .184 average allowed rounds out an absolutely dominant season. The Cubs strike out at a roughly average clip against right-handers, so make no mistake, this is about Cease's own filthy stuff and white-hot form, not some gift matchup. Toronto's a modest favorite on the road, and this is as clean a top-of-slate arm as you'll find in the early window.

Nolan McLean (NYM)

Right behind Cease and a very strong follow if you want a second ace-caliber arm: a 3.29 ERA with a touch of gap versus his 3.47 FIP and 3.34 xFIP, a fair read rather than a lucky one. His 10.60 K/9 is the second-best mark in this whole playbook, and Cleveland's hitters strike out at a roughly average rate against right-handers, a neutral backdrop for a swing-and-miss arm who really doesn't need a soft matchup to rack up punchouts. A 3.22 BB/9 and 1.12 WHIP are both solid across the board. One of the safer strikeout plays on the entire slate today.

MLB DFS Value Pitchers

Brandon Young (BAL)

A middling peripheral profile that's still very much in play at this price: a 3.31 ERA that's actually a bit better than his 3.91 FIP and notably better than his 4.41 xFIP, so there's some regression risk simmering under the surface number. His 7.40 K/9 won't jump off the page, but here's the fun part, the Angels actually carry the highest strikeout rate in the entire league against right-handers, handing him a real margin his own rate alone wouldn't suggest. A 3.14 BB/9 and 1.287 WHIP are both perfectly fine, and Baltimore has been playing its best baseball of the season, winners of seven straight and fresh off a series sweep, with Young a real part of that turnaround. A solid win-and-innings floor with more swing-and-miss upside baked in than the season line lets on.

Dustin May (MIL)

Big context to sort through before anything else: today is May's actual debut for Milwaukee. He got traded from the Cardinals to the Brewers just days ago at the deadline, so every number below belongs to his time with St. Louis, not any track record with his new team, new bullpen, or new defense behind him. Still, those numbers are worth knowing: a 4.38 ERA against a much friendlier 3.14 FIP and 3.87 xFIP, with an inflated .322 BABIP suggesting real bad luck on balls in play rather than a true read on his stuff. His 8.75 K/9 is a career best and a solid rate for this price tag, and a 2.89 BB/9 is a genuine strength. Worth flagging that some reports out of St. Louis mentioned a rough stretch right before the trade, so don't treat this as a clean buy-low either. A reasonable value target given the peripherals, just know there's real uncertainty attached to a fresh start like this.

David Peterson (CHC)

The season-long line is flat-out misleading here, and it's worth explaining why: a 5.52 ERA reflects a rough stretch with the Mets before he got traded to the Cubs on June 25. Since landing in Chicago, he's been a completely different pitcher, a 1.52 ERA over his last four outings, at least five innings and two runs or fewer allowed in five of his six Cubs starts, and a season-high eight strikeouts in his most recent turn against the Yankees. His season-long FIP (4.10) and xFIP (4.15) are still dragging in that rough Mets stretch, so neither one fully captures how he's actually pitching right now. Toronto's hitters strike out at a roughly average rate against left-handers, so this isn't a soft-matchup case, it's a genuine hot-streak case. Given how well he's throwing the ball lately, this is a much stronger value play than that season-long ERA alone would ever suggest.

Top Options For Strikeouts

Ranking by K/9 across today's featured arms:

Best Odds For A Win

The favorites among tonight's picks, by moneyline:

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Stacks & Hitters

MLB DFS Top Hitters

Pete Alonso (1B, BAL)

The best individual number on today's entire early slate, and it's not close: a 140.6 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, built on a .233 ISO and a beefy .489 slugging percentage in that split. He draws a righty today in Ryan Johnson, who has been an absolute mess this year, a 7.63 ERA backed by an even worse 6.31 FIP and 2.35 HR/9. Toss in a 12.9% walk rate against right-handers for extra on-base juice on top of the raw power. Baltimore's a big home favorite, and this is about as clean a top-of-the-pool bat as the early slate has to offer.

Elly De La Cruz (SS, CIN)

A go-to spot at shortstop for Cincinnati against a righty today in Mason Barnett, and his 105.8 wRC+ against right-handed pitching is a solid, above-average mark for a player with this kind of ceiling. A .174 ISO shows real thump to go with a healthy 10.8% walk rate in the split. Barnett's own season has been shaky, a 4.85 ERA that lines up almost exactly with his FIP, with a 1.31 WHIP and 1.52 HR/9 both pointing to real, repeatable vulnerability. One of the more well-rounded star bats on the board given the power-speed combo.

Tyler Soderstrom (OF, ATH)

Gotta be straight with you here: Soderstrom's 88.4 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this year is actually below league average, a real contrast to how he hits from the other side. He draws a lefty today in Andrew Abbott, so this isn't his favorite platoon side. A .202 ISO shows the raw power is still in there even in a below-average overall split, and Abbott himself carries a concerning 4.35 BB/9 that could help offset some of the platoon disadvantage, made even more relevant given Abbott's well-documented struggles at home, exactly where he's pitching today. Call this a name-value inclusion more than a pure data-backed smash, but the matchup context does the case some real favors.

MLB DFS Value Hitters

Jonah Heim (C, ATH)

A strong complementary piece at a shallow position: a 133.3 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this year, with a hefty .308 ISO showing legitimate over-the-fence pop in that split. He draws a lefty today in Andrew Abbott, and Abbott's 4.35 BB/9 is the single highest walk rate of any pitcher in this whole playbook, a real path to extra free baserunners on top of whatever damage Heim does himself. The sample here runs a bit small (114 plate appearances) since he changed teams this year, so treat the exact number with a touch of caution even though the underlying pop looks real. A clean value play at a shallow position.

Dylan Beavers (OF, BAL)

Part of that same Baltimore attack as Alonso, and his 103.1 wRC+ against right-handed pitching is a solid, right-around-average mark at a dirt-cheap salary. He draws the same Ryan Johnson that the rest of this Orioles stack is feasting on, in a spot where the pitcher's season-long numbers (7.63 ERA, 2.35 HR/9) are about as exploitable as anyone on the slate. A 10.6% walk rate against right-handers tacks on a touch of extra on-base value beyond the modest power number. A clean way to add a second piece of the Orioles stack without spending up.

JJ Bleday (OF, CIN)

The best individual number in this entire value tier: a 125.2 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, built on a strong 14.8% walk rate and a healthy .245 ISO in that split. He draws the same Mason Barnett that the rest of this Reds stack is attacking, and Barnett's shaky peripherals (4.85 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) make this matchup appealing well beyond just Bleday's own production. Cincinnati's team split against right-handers is actually below average as a whole, so this is much more of an individual-bat case than a team-wide smash. Still, a genuinely strong number at a very reasonable price.

MLB DFS Top Stacks

Top Stack: Baltimore Orioles vs Ryan Johnson (LAA RHP)

Why: Johnson's season has been an outright disaster: a 7.63 ERA backed by an even worse 6.31 FIP and 5.24 xFIP, with a 2.35 HR/9 that's the single highest home run rate of any pitcher referenced in today's playbook. This is exactly the kind of start you build a lineup around. Baltimore's team split against right-handers (102.9 wRC+) is solidly above average, and the Orioles are massive home favorites (-187) on the moneyline riding a seven-game win streak. Alonso and Beavers both get individual love above, and Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday round out a lineup with real top-to-bottom thump against an arm this exploitable.

Targets: Pete Alonso, Dylan Beavers, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday

Top Stack: Cincinnati Reds vs Mason Barnett (ATH RHP)

Why: Gotta be honest up front: Cincinnati's team-wide split against right-handers (86.0 wRC+) is actually the softest of any team featured in today's playbook, so this isn't a top-to-bottom smash spot on team quality alone. But Barnett himself has been shaky in a small sample, a 4.85 ERA that lines up closely with his FIP, with a 1.31 WHIP and 1.52 HR/9 pointing to real, repeatable vulnerability rather than an unlucky number. De La Cruz and Bleday both get individual love above for their above-average production against right-handers, well ahead of the team aggregate, and Sal Stewart and Tyler Stephenson round out a lineup with more individual juice than the team split alone lets on.

Targets: Elly De La Cruz, JJ Bleday, Sal Stewart, Tyler Stephenson

“Contrarian” Stacks

Contrarian Stack: Athletics vs Andrew Abbott (CIN LHP)

Why: Abbott's 3.91 ERA looks solid on the surface, but it's running well ahead of both his FIP (4.80) and xFIP (4.91), a real signal that regression could show up at any moment. A 4.35 BB/9 is the standout red flag here, the highest walk rate of any pitcher in today's playbook, meaning free baserunners are a genuine path to damage even without a clean line-drive day. He's also been notably worse at home than on the road this year, and today's start is right at Great American Ball Park, adding another layer to the fade case beyond the peripherals alone. The Athletics' team split against lefties (98.0 wRC+) sits right around league average, but Soderstrom and Heim both get individual love above, with Henry Bolte and Max Muncy adding further depth against an arm that's giving away more free passes than his ERA lets on.

Targets: Tyler Soderstrom, Jonah Heim, Henry Bolte, Max Muncy

Contrarian Stack: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Dustin May (MIL RHP)

Why: Gotta be upfront that May is a genuinely quality arm this year, a 4.38 ERA that actually undersells peripherals in the mid-3s (3.14 FIP, 3.87 xFIP) and an 8.75 K/9, so this isn't a pitcher-exploit case the way the other stacks above are. The appeal here is Pittsburgh's own lineup depth: a 111.5 wRC+ team split against right-handers, comfortably the best team number referenced anywhere in today's playbook. Bryan Reynolds and Spencer Horwitz both add real thump to a Pirates order that's simply hitting well against right-handed pitching regardless of who's on the mound, even as clear moneyline underdogs today.

Targets: Bryan Reynolds, Spencer Horwitz, Nick Gonzales, Endy Rodriguez

MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters & Pitchers

Player Pool

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Stacks

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