Welcome to Fantasy Alarm's MLB DFS picks and daily fantasy playbook for Monday, August 31st. Our MLB DFS projections combine advanced pitching metrics, platoon splits, strikeout prop data, and ownership positioning to identify the sharpest plays on every slate. Whether you are targeting DFS Projections, running lineups through our DFS Optimizer, tracking ownership trends, or checking confirmed lineups, Fantasy Alarm has the tools to sharpen your edge. 

Today's slates have multiple different directions with some ELITE pitchers in Kyle Harrison, Jacob deGrom, Payton Tolle, and Taj Bradley. all taking the mound. This MLB DFS playbook covers every key position on DraftKings and FanDuel with our best MLB DFS picks for today.

Slate: 7-Games on DK, 11-Games on FD | Lock Time: 6:40 pm ET on FD, 7:40 pm ET on DK, Monday, July 31st, 2026

Vegas Totals: BAL/COL & MIL/CHC (tied for highest-projected game), DET/MIN & SD/CIN (tied for second-highest game total), CWS/HOU, PHI/ARI & NYY/LAA (tied for third-highest game total)

Highest K-Projections: Payton Tolle 6.5 O/U (-120), Jacob deGrom 6.5 O/U (-111), Ian Seymour 6.5 O/U (+127), Michael King 5.5 O/U (-136)

MLB Weather Today, 8/31

Marlins vs Nationals - There's a chance at a delay in this game because there are multiple storms in the forecast.

Brewers vs Cubs - There is rain in the forecast, which could cause a delay. There are double-digit winds blowing out at Wrigley Field, which is the most wind sensitive stadium in baseball.

Orioles vs Rockies - There's strong possibility at a delay in this game.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers

MLB DFS Top Pitchers

Payton Tolle (BOS) (FanDuel)

Analysis: This spot is fantastic for Tolle as he faces a reeling Mariners team. The Mariners strike out 25.7% of the time against lefties since the break, which is one of the highest marks in the league. They only have an 88 wRC+ against southpaws over that span. Tolle has the fourth-highest K-rate on the entire slate, the best strikeout odds, and the third-highest win odds too.

Jacob deGrom (TEX) 

Analysis: The Athletics, since the All-Star game, actually profile decently against right-handed pitching but we're taking them out of Sutter Health Park. deGrom LOVES pitching in his home ballpark, pitching three runs better at home on the road and averages 10+ DKP/game.

Michael King (SD) 

Analysis: The Reds are a bad offense against righties, but they've been improved lately. Where they haven't improved are the strikeout department. Their strikeout rate is 26.1% but a 94 wRC+. The power department is the scary part as they've posted a .193 ISO.

Taj Bradley (MIN)

Analysis: In August, the Tigers have been awful offensively. They have a 90 wRC+ and are 25th in OPS vs. RHP at a .674 clip. Bradley is a strikeout artist that could deliver a crooked number here against a flailing Tigers offense.

MLB DFS Value Pitchers

Walbert Urena (LAA) 

Analysis: The only team striking out more than the Angels since the second half started is..the Yankees at 26.7%. They also only have a .655 OPS, which ranks 29th in baseball, and have an 83 wRC+, which is 28th, against righties. Urena just needs to throw strikes, that's the primary issue.

Gage Jump (ATH) 

Analysis: The home/road splits have been drastic for Gage Jump and he gets this elite ballpark upgrade in Texas. Jump has averaged 17.6 DKP/game on the road and 12.2 at home this season. Amongst all pitchers available today he has the sixth-highest K-rate (fourth on DK) and one pitcher in front of him is in a wind game.

Elmer Rodriguez (NYY) 

Analysis: We saw Elmer Rodriguez's velocity up over 2 MPH from where we saw him in his first four starts compared to his last start upon being recalled. He generated 11 whiffs to boot and gets a matchup against the Angels, who has the second-highest K-rate in the second half. They also have a 76 wRC+ over that time, which is 30th in baseball.

Top Options For Strikeouts

K-prop lines and value ratings are incorporated below for DFS and prop context. These are the arms building the highest strikeout ceilings on the 9-game slate.

Our model identifies these arms as the highest-ceiling plays for Alt-K lines today:

Kyle Harrison: 30% K% (11.1 K/9)

Jacob deGrom: 29.4% K% (11 K/9)

Ian Seymour: 28.7% K% (10.8 K/9)

Payton Tolle: 27.9% K% (10.1 K/9)

Taj Bradley: 27% K% (10.3 K/9)

Best Odds For A Win

The following MLB DFS picks offer a combination of favorable win odds, sustainable ERA and xFIP metrics, and soft opponent matchups. Each carries K-prop lines worth noting alongside their DFS value at reduced ownership relative to the top tier.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Stacks & Hitters

MLB DFS Top Hitters

Pete Alonso (1B, BAL), Gunnar Henderson (SS, BAL) & Samuel Basallo (C, BAL)

Analysis: The Orioles head into Coors Field with 6.1 implied runs today and that's a slate high. Alonso has dominated right-handed pitching this year and Henderson had a four-hit, two homer game on Sunday that could jump start his season. Basallo himself has a .250 ISO vs. RHP this year.

Pete Crow-Armstrong & Seiya Suzuki (OF, CHC)

Analysis: Kyle Harrison is really good but he does allow a decent amount of flyballs against right-handed hitters and there's nearly 10 MPH winds blowing out, which is significant in the most sensitive park in baseball. PCA has five homers over the last two games and 38 HR on the year. Suzuki has a .239 ISO vs. LHP this season.

Kyle Schwarber (1B, PHI)

Analysis: This is a power play. Schwarber gets a good matchup against Brandon Pfaadt who's allowed a .190 ISO vs. RHP. Schwarber has a .302 ISO and .370 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Corbin Carroll (OF, ARI) & Gabriel Moreno (C, ARI)

Analysis: Carroll and Moreno have great numbers against right-handed pitching. Carroll has a .232 ISO while Moreno has a .378 wOBA against righties. Nola has allowed .200 ISOs to both splits this season.

Jackson Merrill (OF, MIN) (FanDuel)

Analysis: Lefties have crushed Brady Singer and now he has to navigate his bandbox of a home ballpark. Lefties have a .199 ISO and .376 wOBA against Singer. Merrill has a .199 ISO and .236 xISO and .345 xwOBA against righties this season.

MLB DFS Value Hitters

Dylan Beavers & Colton Cowser (OF, BAL)

Analysis: Getting decent players under 4K (on DK) in Coors Field is rare and extremely valuable. Beavers has solid surface level numbers vs. RHP and Cowser has elite underlying metrics. Cowser has a .231 xISO and .347 xwOBA.

Connor Norby (2B, COL)

Analysis: So far as a Rockie, Norby is hitting .400 with three runs and three RBI against left-handed pitching and has an .885 OPS as a whole. 

Jake Cronenworth (1B/2B, SD) & Ty France (1B, SD)

Analysis: Cronenworth is hitting second in the Padres lineup and faces off against right-handed pitcher that struggles against lefties. Ty France has a .232 ISO and .379 wOBA against righties this year.

Matt Shaw (OF, CHC) & Carson Kelly (C, CHC)

Analysis: All of the damage done against Kyle Harrison this year has been right-handed power. He's allowed a .177 ISO to righties as well as significantly more hard-contact and 45% FB. Shaw has been a .220+ ISO player for two straight seasons and Kelly has been a .189+ player during that stretch.

MLB DFS Top Stacks

Primary Stack: Baltimore Orioles vs Tanner Gordon (COL RHP)

Targets: Pete Alonso, Dylan Beavers, Colton Cowser, Samuel Basallo, Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson

Primary Stack: San Diego Padres vs Brady Singer (CIN RHP)

Targets: Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth, Ty France, Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado

Primary Stack: Colorado Rockies vs Cade Povich (BAL LHP)

Targets: Hunter Goodman, Connor Norby, Jake McCarthy, Willi Castro, Jordan Beck

“Contrarian” Stack: Chicago Cubs vs Kyle Harrison (MIL LHP) 

Targets: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Matt Shaw, Carson Kelly, Alex Bregman, Tyrone Taylor

“Contrarian” Stack: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Aaron Nola (PHI RHP) 

Targets: Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo, Lars Nootbaar, Gabriel Moreno

MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters & Pitchers

The "Chalk" (Popular)

The "Pivot" (Low

Owned)

Lambert (SP, chalk value)Urena (SP, lower owned)
Rockies (Chalk)Cubs (pivot stack)
McCarthy + Rumfield (chalk)Suzuki + Shaw (lower owned)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The foundation for every MLB DFS lineup you build today. These are the core MLB DFS picks by position across DraftKings and FanDuel.

  1. Jacob deGrom (SP1)
  2. Elmer Rodriguez (SP2)
  3. Pete Alonso (Core Bat)
  4. Samuel Basallo (Core Bat)
  5. Jackson Merrill (Core Bat) (FanDuel)
  6. Connor Norby (Core Value Bat)
  7. Colton Cowser (Core Value Bat)

Player Pool

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Stacks

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