Welcome to Fantasy Alarm's MLB DFS picks and daily fantasy playbook for Monday, July 10th. Our MLB DFS projections combine advanced pitching metrics, platoon splits, strikeout prop data, and ownership positioning to identify the sharpest plays on every slate. Whether you are targeting DFS Projections, running lineups through our DFS Optimizer, tracking ownership trends, or checking confirmed lineups, Fantasy Alarm has the tools to sharpen your edge. 

Today's slates have multiple different directions with some elite pitchers in Tarik Skubal, Logan Henderson, and Sonny Gray all taking the mound. This MLB DFS playbook covers every key position on DraftKings and FanDuel with our best MLB DFS picks for today.

Slate: 10-Games | Lock Time: 7:07 pm ET, Monday, July 10th, 2026

Vegas Totals: TB/ATH (highest-projected game), PHI/STL & COL/ARI (tied for second-highest game total), DET/SF, HOU/SF, BAL/MIN & NYM/ATL (tied for third-highest game total)

Highest K-Projections: Tarik Skubal 7.5 O/U (-122), Reid Detmers 6.5 O/U (-150), MacKenzie Gore 6.5 O/U (-106), Christian Scott 5.5 O/U (-102)

MLB Weather Today, 8/10

Mets vs Braves - There's a chance at a delay but nothing that's overly concerning.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers

MLB DFS Top Pitchers

Tarik Skubal (LAD)

Analysis: Skubal is the best pitcher on the slate by a wide margin and gets a great matchup. The Royals are a 95 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season. Skubal has the best odds for a win at -144 (DK) and has a 7.5 O/U on his strikeouts.

Logan Henderson (MIL)

Analysis: This is easily the best stretch of Logan Henderson's season and it's been great to see that the Brewers are willing to extend him to six innings and throw at least 90 pitches. He's put up 26+ DKP in three straight games and has a massive ceiling because of his ability to miss bats.

Sonny Gray (BOS)

Analysis: The Blue Jays don't strike out a lot but they aren't a good offense and Gray could get pretty deep into this game. The Blue Jays rank 23rd in OPS and have a 96 wRC+ this year against right-handed pitching. Gray is +102 to win this game outright.

MLB DFS Value Pitchers

Mackenzie Gore (TEX)

Analysis: Predictably Gore's getting a lot of ownership because of the matchup today against the Angels. The Angels have the highest K-rate in baseball against lefties and are a 97 wRC+ team to boot. Gore has pitched well in two straight and is a really high ceiling pitcher.

Trevor Rogers (BAL)

Analysis: The Twins are really good against right-handed hurlers and really bad against left-handers. Rogers throws lefty, by the way. Since June 1st, Rogers has a 2.28 ERA, has held opponents to a .215 BAA, and has a 22.7% K-rate (11 starts, 67 innings). Minnesota has a 94 wRC+ versus left-handers on the year.

Hayden Wesneski (HOU)

Analysis: Since the All-Star game, the Giants offense has cratered and things haven't gotten any better since trading away some of their every day offensive staples. Wesneski has fired two really good games thus far and is getting a massive park upgrade to boot.

Top Options For Strikeouts

K-prop lines and value ratings are incorporated below for DFS and prop context. These are the arms building the highest strikeout ceilings on the 9-game slate.

Our model identifies these arms as the highest-ceiling plays for Alt-K lines today:

Logan Henderson: 32.3% K% (11.2 K/9)

Tarik Skubal: 30.7% K% (10.7 K/9)

Christian Scott: 28.8% K% (11.1 K/9)

Reid Detmers: 28.3% K% (10.5 K/9)

MacKenzie Gore: 25.6% K% (9.8 K/9)

Best Odds For A Win

The following MLB DFS picks offer a combination of favorable win odds, sustainable ERA and xFIP metrics, and soft opponent matchups. Each carries K-prop lines worth noting alongside their DFS value at reduced ownership relative to the top tier.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Stacks & Hitters

MLB DFS Top Hitters

Junior Caminero (3B, TB) & Yandy Diaz (1B/3B, TB)

Analysis: Jacob Lopez is a severe flyballer in a minor league stadium. Righties have posted a .207 ISO and .382 wOBA against Lopez this season. Caminero has a .230 ISO and .412 wOBA vs. RHP and Yandy Diaz has a .185 ISO and .359 wOBA.

Willson Contreras (1B, BOS) & Wilyer Abreu (OF, BOS)

Analysis: The Blue Jays are throwing Jameson Taillon on the mound tonight and he's allowed the third-most home runs this season despite only making 16 starts. Both Contreras and Abreu have ISOs over .200 against right-handed pitching this year and have 15+ HR each off of them.

Pete Alonso (1B, BAL)

Analysis: This is the perfect pairing. Alonso hits homers and Kremer serves them up. Righties have a .270 ISO against Kremer and Alonso have a .229 ISO and .247 xISO against righties this season.

Tyler Soderstrom (OF, ATH)

Analysis: Lefties have killed Freddy Peralta this year to the tune of a .221 ISO and .363 wOBA and now has to navigate the small ballpark. Soderstrom is a .225 ISO and .368 wOBA guy against righties this year.

Jordan Walker (OF, STL)

Analysis: Painter hasn't pitched well against righties all year long and now has to try and get Jordan Walker out. Walker has a .197 ISO and .346 wOBA against righties and Painter has allowed a .211 ISO and .211 xISO.

MLB DFS Value Hitters

Bryson Stott (2B/3B, PHI)

Analysis: Stott's in the midst of one of those heaters he goes on a couple of times per year as he's had a bunch of multi-hit games and stolen bases lately. He has a good matchup against Hunter Dobbins.

Caleb Durbin (3B, BOS)

Analysis: His seasonal numbers don't look great, but man he's been elite for two months straight and the algo hasn't caught up to it. His price is elite and so is the matchup.

Ryan Vilade (1B/OF, TB)

Analysis: Vilade has elite numbers against left-handed pitching this season posting a .236 ISO and .355 wOBA and now gets to hit in a small ballpark. Great elg, great matchup, great team total.

Jackson Holliday (2B/SS, BAL)

Analysis: The Orioles have moved Holliday up in their order as he hits in a premium spot in the order. Holliday has a .158 ISO and .332 wOBA against righties this year.

MLB DFS Top Stacks

Primary Stack: Tampa Bay Rays vs Jorge Lopez (ATH LHP)

Why: The Rays have a slate leading 5.8 implied runs in the minor league stadium. Yes please! They face a flyballer in Jacob Lopez allowing a .200+ ISO to righties, which is the primary focus of our stack today. The Rays are a very big platoon team, for whatever that's worth to you.

Targets: Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, Ryan Vilade, Jonny DeLuca, Carson Williams, Chandler Simpson

Primary Stack: Boston Red Sox vs Jameson Taillon (TOR RHP)

Why: Despite spending time on the injured list, only two pitchers this year have given up more home runs than Jameson Taillon. He's pitching for the Blue Jays now to get them through the year as an innings eater. Lefties have a .310 ISO and .391 wOBA and righties aren't far behind at .255 ISO and .350 wOBA.

Targets: Willson Contreras, Wilyer Abreu, Nick Sogard, Caleb Durbin, Ceddane Rafaela, Masataka Yoshida

Primary Stack: Baltimore Orioles vs Dean Kremer (MIN RHP)

Why: Through his first eight starts this year, Dean Kremer has allowed a bunch of home runs. In fact, he's allowed 2.6 HR/9 with a super-high flyball rate and the hardest-hit percentage allowed of his career. Both righties and lefties have a .270 ISO or higher, so the Orioles could have a banner offensive day.

Targets: Pete Alonso, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Tyler O'Neill, Leody Taveras

“Contrarian” Stack: Athletics vs Freddy Peralta (TB RHP)

Why: Despite the fact that Freddy Peralta has pitched so poorly this year, the field isn't playing the Athletics. Not only are they not playing them, they're not playing them in a minor league stadium. Lefties have definitely had more success off of him (.221 ISO, .363 wOBA) and the A's are projected to have six in their lineup. Righties aren't bad they just haven't hit for any power (.145 ISO, .340 wOBA).

Targets: Tyler Soderstrom, Lawrence Butler, Jonah Heim, Donovan Walton, Jeff McNeil, Jacob Wilson

MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters & Pitchers

The "Chalk" (Popular)

The "Pivot" (Low

Owned)

The Winning Logic
Detmers (SP, chalk)Rogers (SP, lower owned)Good spot for Rogers' ceiling game.
Diamondbacks (Chalk)Athletics (pivot stack)Low-owned A's in good ballpark.
Moreno + Marte (chalk)Soderstrom + Butler (lower owned)Low-owned A's in good ballpark.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The foundation for every MLB DFS lineup you build today. These are the core MLB DFS picks by position across DraftKings and FanDuel.

  1. Tarik Skubal (SP1)
  2. MacKenzie Gore (SP2)
  3. Junior Caminero (Core Bat)
  4. Willson Contreras (Core Bat)
  5. Tyler Soderstrom (Core Bat) 
  6. Jackson Holliday (Core Value Bat)
  7. Caleb Durbin (Core Value Bat)

Player Pool

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Stacks

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