Payton Tolle ParlayPlay MLB Picks Today, 7/27: Baseball Projections + More

What is up, Fantasy Alarm family? Our MLB DFS Projections point to two standout strikeout prop plays tonight on ParlayPlay, built off season stats, current form, and matchup splits against lefties and righties for the Monday, July 27 slate. For a deeper look at how tonight’s arms project pitch by pitch, check out our MLB DFS Pitcher Projections, and line-shop today’s strikeout numbers with our MLB Odds Finder before you build your board. Let us get into the picks.

Payton Tolle MLB ParlayPlay Pick: Higher than 5.5 Strikeouts

Tolle is 5-6 with a 3.31 ERA, 96 strikeouts in 89.2 innings, and a 9.6 K/9, and he’s part of a Boston rotation riding the hottest stretch in baseball, an MLB best 25-7 since June 19 after wrapping up a 10-game homestand at 8-2. He’s cleared this exact strikeout total in three consecutive starts, and even in a rougher final line his last time out, four runs allowed over 5.2 innings against Baltimore, the swing-and-miss ability held up.

He gets a reeling Athletics club tonight at Sutter Health Park, a team that has lost 23 of its last 29 games to fall 17 games under .500. The Athletics strike out against lefties at a 24.2% clip this season, a strong number that plays right into his bat-missing skill set. That is the number. That is the play.

Kyle Bradish MLB ParlayPlay Pick: Higher than 5.5 Strikeouts

Bradish is 7-9 with a 3.49 ERA, 110 strikeouts in 113.1 innings, and an 8.7 K/9, grading in the 92nd percentile of all major league starters by THE BAT’s overall skill metric. He’s consistently been given a longer leash than the average starter, an extra 3.4 adjusted pitches per outing, translating to more strikeout chances every time out, and his last start backed that up, six innings and just one earned run against Boston.

Tonight he opens a series at Detroit, and the Tigers strike out against right-handers at a 23.9% clip. A trusted, deep-working arm against a strikeout-prone lineup rounds out this parlay well. Do not overthink it.

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