With the Cubs playing in Colorado and ballparks like Baltimore and Cincinnati in play today, it’s crucial to be cost efficient when selecting pitchers. There’s simply too much potential offense on the table to delegate significant percentage of budget to arms. That being said, the wrong choice will certainly be the undoing of many cash game lineups that will feature many of the aforementioned premium bats.
Using Relative Position Value per Dollar (RPVPD), we can narrow the field and simultaneously expose potential lineup killers who will frankly not offer the ratio of price/production we’re looking for this evening. On a two pitcher site this is no small task, let alone on an evening that features so many young arms with very little track record to substantiate their value. We even have a few arms making their MLB and rotation debuts. Here’s a look at tonight’s DraftKings value using RPVPD:
| Player | FPPG | Raw RPV | Salary | Pts per $ | RPV Per Dollar |
| Josh Tomlin | 14.5 | 0.245 | $ 5,300 | $366 | 0.644 |
| Aaron Sanchez | 19.2 | 0.649 | $ 7,400 | $385 | 0.625 |
| Hector Santiago | 12.8 | 0.099 | $ 5,000 | $391 | 0.620 |
| Brett Anderson | 11.4 | -0.021 | $ 5,400 | $474 | 0.539 |
| Mike Fiers | 11.8 | 0.014 | $ 5,800 | $492 | 0.522 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | 15.8 | 0.357 | $ 7,900 | $500 | 0.513 |
| Chris Tillman | 16.9 | 0.452 | $ 8,700 | $515 | 0.499 |
| Ricky Nolasco | 11.2 | -0.038 | $ 5,900 | $527 | 0.487 |
| Brandon Finnegan | 10.6 | -0.090 | $ 5,600 | $528 | 0.486 |
| Max Scherzer | 25.7 | 1.207 | $ 13,600 | $529 | 0.485 |
| Chad Kuhl | 12.8 | 0.099 | $ 6,800 | $531 | 0.483 |
| Chris Sale | 21.7 | 0.864 | $ 12,000 | $553 | 0.462 |
| Daniel Norris | 9.2 | -0.210 | $ 5,100 | $554 | 0.461 |
| Ian Kennedy | 16.6 | 0.426 | $ 9,300 | $560 | 0.455 |
| Drew Pomeranz | 19.6 | 0.684 | $ 11,300 | $577 | 0.439 |
| Luke Weaver | 6.8 | -0.416 | $ 4,100 | $603 | 0.413 |
| Robbie Ray | 16.4 | 0.409 | $ 10,300 | $628 | 0.389 |
| Felix Hernandez | 17.3 | 0.486 | $ 11,500 | $665 | 0.353 |
| Tyrell Jenkins | 5.3 | -0.545 | $ 4,000 | $755 | 0.266 |
| Wily Peralta | 7.6 | -0.347 | $ 5,800 | $763 | 0.257 |
| Mike Montgomery | 5.5 | -0.528 | $ 4,700 | $855 | 0.168 |
| Luis Cessa | 4.5 | -0.613 | $ 4,200 | $933 | 0.092 |
| David Phelps | 5.0 | -0.571 | $ 6,100 | $1,220 | -0.187 |
| Ross Detwiler | 3.1 | -0.734 | $ 4,300 | $1,387 | -0.350 |
| Jeff Hoffman | 0.7 | -0.940 | $ 4,000 | $5,714 | -4.561 |
| Clayton Richard | 0.7 | -0.940 | $ 4,000 | $5,714 | -4.561 |
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The numbers in today’s grid are so drastic based upon the lack of FPPG average of a few arms. This is worth taking into account when making evaluations. Inexperience is difficult to justify when there’s monetary investment on the line. On a normal night the values of Felix Hernandez and Drew Pomeranz would be much closer to the negative RPVPD. But, because of the inexperience at the bottom of the pool, they remain artificially high. Both are still shaky investments. As for the “newbies” they can be ignored based on their limited pitch counts.
Josh Tomlin is the clear cut best value on paper tonight. He’ll be returning to the mound after missing a few days due to a “personal matter”. Whatever has been going on, clearly it’s affected Tomlin for a while as he’s gone 2-4 with a 5.84 ERA since the break. Numbers are important, but we’re still dealing with human beings here. Therefore, it would be wise to pass on Tomlin despite his cost effectiveness. Instead I’d be very pleased to roster his opponent Aaron Sanchez. The Jays have taken measures to keep him fresh down the stretch and so far he’s shown no ill effects from that change in routine. At a +62% RPVPD, he’s a no brainer in GPP and cash game lineups alike as a foundation builder.
Chris Tillman carries plenty of appeal, but there are concerns regarding his recent shoulder issue. When you run the risk of starting a pitcher whose day could be cut short prematurely, you must take pause. This will certainly enter the minds of many DFS players tonight and depending on your style of play you may or may not have the stomach for this risk. Personally, in a secondary tournament lineup I’d take the chance based upon the upside of Tillman who’s been consistent all year. His ownership percentage should be lower than usual which created separation opportunity.
Hector Santiago has been dreadful since joining the Twins so he doesn’t crack the desirable group, despite his value. The same can be said of the inconsistent Mike Fiers. Jeremy Hellickson however bears witness. He’s taking on a talented youngster in Luke Weaver, but one who will most assuredly struggle to go six innings. This could lead to an advantage for Hellickson in terms of bridging the gap to a potential win. The other quietly intriguing choice is Chad Kuhl of the Pirates. He’s 3-0 in 6 starts with a decent 3.73 ERA. Kuhl isn’t a strikeout specialist, but so far he’s been able to keep the Bucs in ballgames. At $6.8K in salary, he definitely can be considered a rotation contender with some of those big salary bats in demand.
Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the seven-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football and hosts Fantasy Sports Tonight on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio.