My second crack at “stacking the deck” will be taking a look at Friday’s 15 game DFS MLB slate. There are a lot of 13 to 15 game slates throughout the season, but Friday is the one night in the week where 13+ games will consistently be played in one big night slate.
There are going to be some really big GPP tournaments tonight, including the $33 $800k Guaranteed Sweet Spot on DraftKings, and the $4 $200k Guaranteed Squeeze on FanDuel. Keep in mind, the size of the tournament you’re entering makes a big difference in what you might want to do with your lineups. I go into detail in my GPP tournament strategy article from the Fantasy Alarm MLB Draft Guide, Draft Guide subscribers can view the article by clicking here.
In my article, I mention a few different ways to be contrarian. Sure, you can stack players from an underdog. But there’s different levels of stacking from an underdog. It’s one thing to stack a slight underdog with a 4+ expected run total, but Is it wise to be ultra-contrarian and stack five guys against Clayton Kershaw? No, because it’s not a profitable play that lacks any form of upside.
I will be providing you with my five favorite stacks of the night. Keep in mind, I am not going to include anything in Minnesota because as of right now, I highly doubt that game is getting in. It does feature a decent run total, so if you have the nerve or the weather miraculously changes for the better, it’s something to consider.
PREFERRED STACKS (ARRANGED IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE)
SEATTLE MARINERS
The Mariners get a date with Martin Perez, who they have absolutely owned over the past few seasons. Perez has had a decent start to his 2017 season and a good amount of the peripherals actually show Perez as a different player. He has more velocity, an increased strikeout rate, and has less control. He has a BB/9 of 5.56, which is extremely high compared what we’re used to from him. In fact, only 33.7% of his pitches are in the strike zone.
If the Mariners stay patient, this could be disastrous for the Rangers. Seattle has had a rough start to their season, but it is mainly a product of their atrocious pitching, and not their hitting. They’ve scored five runs or more in three of their last four contests. Nelson Cruz is still a bit cold, but has a great history against the Rangers, batting .299/.360/.580 with 12 homers over 157 at-bats over the past three seasons. There’s also a reverse splits situation with Kyle Seager batting .400/.438/.833 with four homers throughout his career against Perez.
Players to consider: Mitch Haniger, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager, Danny Valencia, and Mike Zunino
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
This might be one of the more popular secondary stacks (not completely sure if people will be on them). The Nationals weren’t able to do much against Nola this past Saturday, but psychologically speaking, it would have been tough for any team to muster any offense after spotting the opposition with 12 runs in the first inning (thanks, Jeremy Guthrie).
Two Nationals batters in particular have a good history against Nola, and that’s Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth. Harper is 8-for-14 (.571 AVG) with two homers and five RBIs against the young right-hande, while the veteran Werth is 6-for-17 (.353 AVG) with two homers and seven RBIs against Nola.
On top of that, you have someone like Daniel Murphy who has been on fire, leading the team .420 wOBA, two homers, and nine RBIs.
Players to consider: Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth, and Matt Wieters
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
I wouldn’t worry too much about Scott Feldman’s first two starts. His 12 strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings is close to double what we have seen from Feldman throughout his career, and it definitely helped him strand 98.2% of runners on base. That is an absurd percentage that really shows how easily that 2.53 ERA could have ballooned to 6.00.
The Brewers may not be as popular as they were last night with the shorter slate, but they have just as much upside. Eric Thames has looked outstanding in a Brewers uniform, seemingly out on a quest to prove those numbers in South Korea were no fluke. Believe it or not, you also have Jonathan Villar tied with Ryan Braun for the club lead in home runs with three. That average is going to eventually even out and best of all, those stolen bases are going to increase as well.
Players to consider: Jonathan Villar, Eric Thames, Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, and Travis Shaw
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
The Dodgers are coming off of a tough series against the World Champion Cubs and return home to Chavez Ravine to meet Zack Greinke and the D-Backs. While Greinke has gone off to a pretty good start, a matchup against the Dodgers doesn’t really bode well for him. He has faced the Dodgers three times since signing the huge contract with the D-Backs, and he has gone 1-2 with a 5.60 ERA. This includes allowing SIX home runs over those three games.
The most impressive line against Greinke comes from Corey Seager who has reached base safely seven out of 10 times against his former teammate, hitting two homers, a double, walking twice, and driving in four. Seager also currently leads the club in RBIs with eight.
Players to consider: Andrew Toles, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Adrian Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal, and Joc Pederson
FAVORITE SUPER-LOW OWNED STACK
LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Even though the Halos have dropped their last two, there’s something about this year’s club that definitely has Angels fans like myself feeling very hopeful. The last few seasons, the Angels just could never overcome deficits. For the first time in club history, the team came back to win from two consecutive five run deficits.
It certainly helps when they have a good core of hitters who are all hitting above .300, including Yunel Escobar, Kole Calhoun, Mike Trout, Andrelton Simmons, and C.J. Cron. They’ve also been able to hit the long ball, which also happens to be one of the things that Danny Duffy is prone to giving up. While most of his other statistics took a huge leap last season (e.g. ERA, wins, and K/9), he definitely gave up his fair share of homers. There’s too many “better” options on paper for a large amount of players to be in on the Halos tonight, making them an interesting option in large-field GPPs.
Players to consider: Yunel Escobar, Kole Calhoun, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Jefry Marte, and Andrelton Simmons.
If you have additional questions, please feel free to reach me via Twitter @kle18. Good luck!