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  1. 🎯 New to Chalkboard? Double Your Deposit Today
  2. Steven Matz Chalkboard Pick'em — More 5.5 Strikeouts
  3. Yordan Alvarez Chalkboard Pick'em — More 1.5 Total Bases
  4. Lock In Your Chalkboard Entry Today

Looking for the best Chalkboard MLB picks today? Fantasy Alarm breaks down Thursday's top More/Less selections on the Chalkboard platform, targeting the lines where the matchup, the data, and the player profile all point in the same direction. Chalkboard consistently offers some of the sharpest lines in the pick'em space, and today's MLB card gives us two strong paying picks built around one of the hottest arms and one of the hottest bats in the American League. Check out Fantasy Alarm's MLB picks and predictions page for daily matchup analysis and expert projections all season long. Here are the top Chalkboard MLB picks for Thursday, April 16, 2026.

🎯 New to Chalkboard? Double Your Deposit Today

Sign up with promo code ALARM and get a 100% deposit match up to $100. Every dollar you put in comes back to you in bonus funds. You also get a free player card for your first lineup, which is essentially a projection set to near zero, giving you a near-guaranteed winner on that leg. Click here to sign up for Chalkboard with promo code ALARM.

 

 

 

Steven Matz Chalkboard Pick'em — More 5.5 Strikeouts

Three starts, three wins, and a 2.97 FIP. Matz is quietly one of the best-performing starters in the American League, and today's matchup is set up to extend that run. His last two outings against Minnesota and New York produced 15 combined strikeouts across 11 innings, and his 9.56 K/9 on the season is backed by an 88.5 mph average exit velocity against, which confirms that hitters are consistently getting the worst of the matchup.

The White Sox are last in the AL in batting average at .191 and last in baseball in OBP at .280. Against left-handed pitching specifically, they are punching out at a 28.2 percent rate this season. Matz is a lefty in the best stretch of his career. There is no better spot on today's board for a strikeout prop. More 5.5 is a floor, not a ceiling.

Yordan Alvarez Chalkboard Pick'em — More 1.5 Total Bases

The Rockies are going opener-bulk today with Juan Mejia starting before Chase Dollander takes over for the middle innings. Dollander went 2-12 with a 6.52 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP as a rookie, has struggled to command the strike zone throughout his career, and is now being asked to handle the best lineup in the American League at a hitter-friendly Daikin Park. That is a bad combination for a pitcher with his profile.

Alvarez enters today slashing .333/.488/.762 with seven home runs, a wOBA of .515, and an xwOBA of .529 through 84 plate appearances. He is walking in over 20 percent of his trips to the plate against a strikeout rate of just 10.7 percent, and his ISO of .429 tells you every swing carries legitimate extra-base upside. He homered against Colorado yesterday and there is no reason to think that trend reverses against Dollander today. More 1.5 Total Bases is the most straightforward play on the board.

 

 

 

Lock In Your Chalkboard Entry Today

Matz, exploiting a lineup with a 28.2 percent strikeout rate against lefties, and Alvarez teeing off on an opener-bulk approach headlined by Chase Dollander, give you two of the cleanest plays on Thursday's slate. Sign up with promo code ALARM to claim your 100% deposit match and free player card before first pitch.