Welcome to tonight’s MLB best bets for this slate of MLB action here at Fantasy Alarm on this Friday, July 11th, 2025! Not the best of weeks for me on the MLB betting front, or at least the winning weeks you all have been accustomed to. We trust the process, though, that has made us all money over these weeks and months, and with 15 games on the slate tonight, it's time to get back to the winning ways. Good luck, everyone, and enjoy the weekend!

In this MLB Best Bets Today article, you will find a wide array of choices from some Money Lines to game totals and, on occasion, some player props! Check out the rationale and if you agree with me, make sure to tail and good luck!

Now, let's dive into my expert MLB Best Bets today!

  • Season Record: 183-126-5
  • Bankroll: +28.7 units

Follow me on twitter @jwaggs10

 

 

 

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 7/11

Cubs vs. Twins Predictions

Happy Paul Skenes Day to all who celebrate as the young ace takes the hill to take on Joe Ryan and the Twins! It's hard to pick a winner with these two on the mound, but how can we make some money betting on these pitchers? Let’s dive into it. 

Skenes hasn’t been getting the wins thanks to a poor offense backing him, but that’s the only poor stat he has on his resume as we approach the All-Star festivities. In his last 40.2 innings pitched dating back to the start of June, he’s given up just 7 earned runs and has struck out 48 batters while allowing just 26 hits. I realize the Twins' bats have played well of late, but this is going to be a tough ask for them. They strike out the league average amount, but their team BABIP is also low since June 1st at just .276, which is the 6th lowest average in MLB. This, coupled with the fact that the Pirates' offense scores only 2.87 runs per game, makes it a must to bet on the under in the opening 5 frames while Skenes and Ryan are on the mound. 

In addition to that wager Joe Ryan has been racking up Ks of late with 7 strikeouts or more in 4 of his last 5 starts, and tonight his number sits at 6.5 once again. You’ll be eating a bit of chalk to play the wager, but given the trends of the Pirates, it's worth your while. Pittsburgh has a team K-rate of 24.5% since early June, which is the 4th highest average in the majors, and it's hard to see them turning it around against Ryan, who is locked in, so give me the over on his K prop tonight. 

Pick: Pirates & Twins Under 3.5 Runs 1st 5 Innings (-140 on DraftKings)

Pick: Joe Ryan (MIN) Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-130 on DraftKings)

 

 


 

Nationals vs. Brewers Predictions

The Brew Crew should be on everyone’s radar right now after sweeping the Dodgers, but in case they aren’t, I am highlighting their game today for your betting purposes! They come in tonight hosting the Nationals, winners of 5 of the last 6 games, and they’ve done so with timely hitting and great defense/pitching. They’re in another great spot again tonight to keep things rolling, so let’s get into it!

Quinn Priester will pitch for Milwaukee tonight, and he’s had a great summer, as over the past 32 innings pitched, he’s allowed just 10 earned runs, 30 hits, and has 33 strikeouts! The Nationals' offense being inconsistent should help him out today as they rank middle of the pack in runs scored at 4.39 per game, but recently they’ve hit a snag with just 20 runs scored in the past 6 games and 2 series. 

On top of that, the Nationals are sending out Mitchell Parker, whose ERA is okay, but the deeper stats are not! He’s given up 22 hits in his last 3 starts while collecting just 8 total strikeouts over 17 innings pitched. This means he’s putting the ball in play a lot, and that’s bad news with the Brewers boasting a team BABIP of .314 against lefties this season. As you can likely guess, I am betting big on Milwaukee tonight, and I think they cover the Run Line of -1.5. 

Now we need a batter’s prop to prey on Parker here, and Jackson Chourio is going to be the man for the job. On the season, he’s hitting .356 against the southpaws with a .991 OPS and 5 home runs. Over the past 7 days, he’s remained hot as well with a .364 average and .991 OPS! Things are aligning perfectly for the young star, and his hits/runs/RBIs prop is a big one for me to hammer today. 

Pick: Brewers Run Line -1.5 (-105 on DraftKings)

Pick: Jackson Chourio (MIL) Over 2.5 Hits/Runs/RBIS (+120 on DraftKings)
 

 

 

Best MLB Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 7/11

Pick: Tarik Skubal (DET) Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+115 on DraftKings)

Pick: Orioles Money Line (-135 on DraftKings)

Pick: Mets & Royals Under 9.5 Runs (-120 on DraftKings)

Pick: Brent Rooker (ATH) Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-140 on DraftKings)

 

Â