Welcome back to another Saturday of MLB picks as we take a closer look at all of today’s games. Let’s dive into MLB Best Bets and Props as you enjoy the weekend action!

Our top MLB predictions today feature the Nationals vs. Phillies and Padres vs. Rockies matchups. Plus, we wrap up our Saturday baseball betting card with some top MLB props. Enjoy the afternoon and night baseball as we cash our plays! 

 

 

 

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 8/17

As always, be sure to shop around for the best Vegas Odds and Lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing. 

Without further ado, let’s check out my MLB best bets and props for Saturday, August 17th.

 

 

 

Nationals vs. Phillies Prediction Today, August 17th

Our first MLB pick today takes us to the NL East with a divisional matchup between the Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies. Over the past few weeks, the Phillies have been playing in high-scoring games with the over hitting in 11 of their last 17 contests. We’re looking at the over again on Saturday for a few reasons. 

First, Mackenzie Gore is on the mound for Washington against this dangerous Philly offense that’s capable of putting up plenty of runs in any given game. They did it on Thursday against the Nats with 13 runs and the night before vs. Miami (9 runs). Though the Phillies have been inconsistent lately from a win-loss perspective, the offense has started to wake up. 

Gore has been getting knocked around recently with a 7.67 ERA and 5.84 FIP over his past 7 starts. The Nationals left-hander has allowed 5+ runs in three of his last four outings as well. Now Gore has to face a Philadelphia offense that’s been the league’s best against lefties since the All-Star break (.406 wOBA, 163 wRC+, .325 BA, .955 OPS). The Phillies are also the top lineup vs. southpaws overall this season (.345 wOBA, 122 wRC+). Gore, meanwhile, has a 5.35 ERA in his career against the Phils (33.2 innings). 

As Philly puts up runs, the Nationals can add to the total as well in their own matchup. Christopher Sanchez has not been the same pitcher as he was in the first half of his All-Star season. The left-hander has struggled since the start of July with a 6.63 ERA and .323 BA allowed over his past 7 starts. Sanchez just got rocked for 7 runs on 12 hits last time out vs. Arizona and he coughed up 6 runs to the Yankees three starts ago. 

The negative regression is here for Sanchez, whose ERA now sits at 3.63 ERA after being at 2.41 at the end of June. The Nationals can give him fits as they’ve been hitting lefties well recently. Since the All-Star break, Washington has a .336 wOBA, 116 wRC+, .293 BA, and low 16.9% K rate against southpaws. The Nats will make Sanchez earn it and should help the over hit – for both the full game and first five innings. 

Expert Nationals vs. Phillies Picks

  • Over 8.5 Total Runs (-120 FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • 1st 5 Innings Over 4.5 Runs (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

 


 

Padres vs. Rockies Prediction Today, August 17th

In case you haven’t paid attention to the MLB playoff picture lately, the San Diego Padres are surging fast. The Padres were a .500 team less than a month ago but have since gone 19-3 over their past 22 games. Before Friday’s action, they sat 2 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West and look very live to win the division. San Diego is showing no signs of cooling off – so let’s lean right into the hottest team in baseball with today’s pick.

Dylan Cease starts for the Padres today and that immediately gives them an edge. The right-hander was shaky earlier this season but he’s now looking like the Cy Young contender we know. Cease has a 1.33 ERA over his past 7 starts and he’s allowed only 3 earned runs over his past 6 outings combined. He had an injury scare two starts ago but appears to be all good now. 

The Rockies, meanwhile, have some poor numbers against right-handed pitching this month. They have a .298 wOBA, 78 wRC+, 30.0% K rate, and .235 BA vs. righties since the start of August. Colorado is a bottom-tier lineup in the split over this stretch and Cease can certainly take advantage of the matchup. It’s worth noting that he faced the Rockies in Coors earlier this year and tossed 7 innings of one-hit ball with 8 strikeouts. 

On the other side, the San Diego offense should provide enough run support and then some. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has a 5.75 ERA this season and gets a very tough matchup here. The Padres are hitting left-handers well since the All-Star break with a .345 wOBA, 126 wRC+, .813 OPS, and .270 BA. The offense is rolling right now and should get to Freeland here. 

Oddly enough, Freeland has a 3.06 ERA at home in Coors this year compared to a 8.23 ERA on the road. However, this seems like an outlier because the Colorado southpaw had a 4.94 ERA at home last year and a 6.00 ERA at home in 2022. Take the Padres on the runline for the full game and first five innings as they stay hot. 

Expert Padres vs. Rockies Picks

  • Padres -1.5 Runline (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • 1st 5 Innings Padres -0.5 RL (-130 BetMGM)

 

 


 

Best MLB Player Props Today, 8/17