Welcome back to a full slate of games for Tuesday night on the Major League Baseball schedule and another round of MLB best bets and baseball picks. Tonight's slate offers up plenty of matchups to target as we dive into top MLB picks and MLB bets today. The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians face off in an AL Central battle with plenty of playoff implications on the line. Plus, the Detroit Tigers take on Gerrit Cole and the New York Yankees. Be sure to check out the latest MLB weather report and the confirmed MLB lineups when placing those MLB bets today. Plus, the MLB daily projections will help you find the best matchups for MLB betting picks and MLB DFS lineups. Let's dive into the top MLB bets and baseball props today for Tuesday, September 5th.
MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for September 5
Last night, we saw 26 combined runs from these teams as the Minnesota Twins throttled the Cleveland Guardians in a 20-6 final. We should see a much lower-scoring game between the AL Central rivals tonight with a stronger starting pitching matchup. Twins right-hander Sonny Gray continues to pitch well with a 2.04 ERA and 2.53 FIP over his last six starts. He just faced Cleveland in his last outing and tossed seven shutout innings. The Guardians offense has struggled against right-handed pitching lately with a .290 wOBA and 83 wRC+ in the split over the past two weeks. With yesterday’s blowout win, the Twins were able to save their top relievers to be ready to shut things down once Gray exits.
On the other side, we should get Guardians rookie pitcher Tanner Bibee limiting the run-scoring as well. Bibee is having a strong second-half with a 2.63 ERA since the All-Star break spanning nine starts. Overall this season, the righty’s advanced metrics are very encouraging. Per Statcast, Bibee’s Pitching Run Value is in the 92nd percentile and his 6.1% barrel rate is in the 78th percentile of MLB pitchers. While the Twins did just explode for 20 runs, this offense had been struggling against right-handed pitching previously. Minnesota had a .306 wOBA and 27.2% strikeout rate vs righties over the prior week before last night’s outburst. The Guardians also have all of their top relievers rested and available to keep this one lower-scoring behind Bibee.
Let's grab both the full-game under and the first five innings under for this Twins vs Guardians matchup. The starting pitching of Gray vs Bibee should anchor a low total early on and carry through when the relievers take over.
PICK: Twins/Guardians UNDER 8 (-115 DraftKings)
PICK: Twins/Guardians 1st 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-135 DraftKings)
Whenever Gerrit Cole is on the mound, we usually see the New York Yankees more overvalued in terms of betting odds. That’s what we have tonight with the Yankees as sizable home favorites on the money line over the Detroit Tigers. Of course, the first instinct would be to back Cole – no matter the matchup. However, we’re looking in the other direction with some value on the Tigers to make this a closer game. Cole has actually sputtered at times lately with just a 4.40 ERA and 4.56 FIP over his past five starts. Yes, a home matchup against the Tigers should be a favorable spot for him. This also might be sneaky-tough. Cole just faced Detroit in his last outing (and gave up two runs over six strong innings). That recent familiarity with Cole’s stuff could give the Tigers an advantage here.
Though the Tigers offense has struggled against right-handed pitching all season, their recent splits vs righties are actually better than the Yankees’. Over the past two weeks, Detroit has a .310 wOBA and 95 wRC+ against right-handers while New York has a .296 wOBA and 86 wRC+. Yes, it’s only slightly worse, but it’s a stat point we can’t ignore here. Meanwhile, we have to put our trust in Tigers righty Alex Faedo matching up with Cole. On the surface, Faedo’s 4.89 ERA doesn’t offer much confidence. Yet, Faedo is sporting a decent 3.38 ERA and .188 batting average against since the start of August. It’s obviously risky, but Faedo has been serviceable in the right matchups and, again, the Yankees have weak numbers vs right-handed pitching recently. Plus, Faedo is rocking a 2.87 ERA on the road this season compared to a 5.66 home ERA.
One final interesting stat to consider is the Yankees’ lack of consistent winning even when Cole is on the mound. New York has gone just 4-5 in his nine starts since the All-Star break. Furthermore, the Tigers are actually 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 instances as +1.5 underdogs on the runline. Meanwhile, the Yankees are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as -1.5 favorites on the runline. Overall, there’s value here in taking the Tigers to at least cover and make it more interesting than Vegas sees.
Pick: Detroit Tigers +1.5 Runline (-105 FanDuel)