Welcome back to the MLB Best Bets Friday edition! That's right the weekend is just about here and while its reaching the upper 90s here in Virginia and I am planning on sitting in the air conditioning for most of it there will still be plenty of heat in my Friday with these wagers I am looking at! We came out even yesterday as the the Guardians were +100 and the Cubs went bonkers on the Cardinals so no harm done on the small slate that was. Full action packed day of MLB tonight though and I have plenty of bets that I will be tracking between a game total, strikeout prop and some Cleveland love once again. Enjoy the weekend everyone and make sure to check back Saturday and Sunday for the MLB Best Bets as I will be here to dish out some more picks!

  • Thursday's Record: 1-1
  • Season Record: 54-47-1
  • Bankroll: +0.98 units
 

MLB Best Bets for July 28

Texas Rangers at San Diego Padres  

Time is running out for the San Diego Padres if it hasn't already and every game from here on out is critical as they begin this series against the Texas Rangers. The matchup is a fairly even one in my mind although the Padres are pretty large favorites on the Money Line but I am instead looking at the game total for this matchup. Dane Dunning and Joe Musgrove will get the starts for their respective clubs tonight and both have been impressive with ERAs in the low threes but I see some runs coming tonight as both of these offenses have major talent. Texas still leads the MLB in runs per game at 5.87 and the Padres are trickling upward with 4.51 runs per game but 26 runs over their last 5 games. The Rangers have also hit the over in 56.8% of their games this season and hit well against anyone, especially right handed pitchers. The line for the game respects the pitchers that are starting but I think that given the lineups the number of 8 runs is just too low so give me the over. 

Pick: Rangers & Padres Over 8 Runs (-120 on BetMGM)

Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals

As we head into August the Twins are in pole position in the AL Central with a record of 54-50 but the Guardians are right behind them so the urgency is still very much there for this ball club. Lucky for them Sonny Gray is pitching tonight and he has been one of their best all season with a 3.15 ERA, 110 strikeouts and a 1.29 WHIP. He has also held opposing batters to a .234 average on the road this season and his opponent tonight are the Kansas City Royals and boy do they stink. They average 8.86 strikeouts per game this season which is the 11th highest mark in the MLB and they score just 3.68 runs per game, the 2nd fewest in the league. That makes me think that Sonny Gray will pitch at least 6 innings tonight and should avoid being shelled and anytime you have a pitcher go that many innings his strikeout prop comes into play. The line is tricky at 5.5 but it comes at plus money so while Gray doesn't get to 6 strikeouts all the time in his starts the value makes it worth while. It is worth noting too that Gray has made 2 starts against Kansas City this season and he had 7 strikeouts in one game and just 1 strikeout in the other but both games were in April so give me the over for the 3rd start this time around. 

Pick: Sonny Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120 on DraftKings)

Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox

Heading back to my money maker over the past week in the Guardians as they've now won 5 of their last 7 games and have been doing so in rather convincing fashion. They took the first game in the series against the White Sox yesterday in a 6-3 win against Dylan Cease and today they'll face off against Touki Toussaint who has allowed 10 runs over his last 4 starts. The White Sox are basically waving the white flag on the season too as they traded away some pieces ahead of the deadline and this time of year its smart to target the teams that have nothing to play for. The Guardians have also been a very good team at home this season playing over .500 ball and scoring 6.33 runs over their last 3 games. I am also going to add a player prop on Josh Naylor today as well as he has been crushing right handed pitching this season hitting .313 with a .873 OPS that has led to 64 RBIs and 11 home runs on the season. He will be batting clean up in the 4 spot tonight too so even more reason to take the over on his 1.5 hits/runs/RBIs prop that he destroyed yesterday by the way!

Pick: Cleveland Guardians Money Line (-130 on WynnBET)

Pick: Josh Naylor Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-165 on DraftKings)

**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned.