Fireworks for the 4th of July are a given, and with how we’ve been with our best MLB home run picks, they have been as well more often than not; Rafael Devers homered for us last night so there was no gap between our last streak and starting a new one! We’ve got prime targets like the Great American Ball Park AND the nation’s capital, which are perfect for 4th of July picks, not to mention windy Wrigley Field and classic Coors Field. In other words, we have plenty to break down for the best MLB home run predictions today!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

So many great targets for MLB home run picks could also mean other hitter props, not to mention strikeout candidates like Drew Rasmussen and Hunter Brown in the same game! Therefore, always keep tabs on our MLB expert picks by having it bookmarked.

Furthermore, our exclusive MLB home run prop tool will hook you up with other options for your top MLB home run predictions today. As for our top three candidates…

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 7/4: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

We’ve already linked a ton of can’t-miss tools for you, but there is still one more that is bookmark-worthy: our MLB weather report. That’s because it’s where we start before making any of our best MLB home run picks. From there, we’ve got starters to consider, and preferably, not the ones mentioned thus far. Of course, the hitters themselves matter with how they perform against certain types of pitchers and individual pitches, not to mention bullpens on top of all that. With so many factors to consider, let’s just start breaking down our best MLB home run picks for today!

Cody Bellinger (+309)

Yankees fans - rejoice! You scored five runs in last night’s win, Trent Grisham homered in his first game back and Ben Rice got one back over the yard as well! As it turns out, Yankees Stadium is rivaling Sutter Heath Park in Sacramento as the best environment for dingers today, so we’re leading off our MLB home run picks in NY on the 4th.

This time, we’re rolling with a different lefty to homer besides the ones just mentioned (and Rafael Devers for us last night). Against Twins starter Zebby Matthews, they’re set up for success, and it wasn’t long ago that Cody Bellinger cashed for us as well. We’d also like to mention that since Paul Goldschmidt isn’t facing a lefty, you can get some valuable odds there.

Even still, we certainly don’t hate the ones for the left fielder, so we’re locking in Cody Bellinger to hit a HR (+309 at Novig) as one of our best MLB home run picks for today.

Griffin Conine (+365)

Ok, NOW we get to head to Triple-A. Well, at least in terms of the stadium. Actually, some A’s fans may also tell you that’s where Aaron Civale belongs. His metrics are bad across the board from his xERA and xBA to hard-hit rates, barrel rates, ground-ball percentage, whiff and K rates and more - it’s all perfect for cashing MLB home run picks.

In fact, what you’ll see that he does do well is have a lower walk rate. Great - keep things in the zone for a Marlins lineup that FIVE homers last night! Kyle Stowers hit two of them and Owen Caissie showed off his power. However, we’re going to go with ANOTHER lefty left fielder, but one that is far less of a household name than Bellinger.

It’s a small sample size, but his 54.1% hard-hit rate is ridiculous, so we’re adding to our best MLB home run picks for today with Griffin Conine hitting a HR (+365 at bet365)

Casey Schmitt (+325)

A trifecta that you’ve seen us refer to is the Great American Ball Park, Brady Singer and the Reds bullpen. Well, today, we’ve another one with Coors Field, Tomoyuki Sugano and the Rockies bullpen. We know that the Great American Ball Park would be perfect for the 4th of July, and you can make some MLB home run picks there, but we’re targeting Colorado.

The Rockies are pretty American too if you ask us, and again - Rafael Devers smacked a dinger last night by the mountains. He very well may again, as Sugano gets smashed by literally everyone. Do we need to go into more advanced metrics once we say he has a 7.07 xERA? Also, could it be any more fitting than to target ANOTHER left fielder?

This time, it’s a righty, but we can’t ignore a 12.7% barrel rate, 43.9% hard-hit rate AND 39.9% sweet-spot rate. Therefore, we’re adding to our best MLB home run picks for today with Casey Schmitt to a hit HR (+325 at FanDuel).

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

What better way to fully capitalize on a 4th of July slate than with a longshot? Beyond the MLB home run picks that you’ve seen already, consider this name for an even bigger potential payout…

Ok, you can call this one a homer pick too, and not in the dinger sense, but in a fan-favorite sense. We just love this switch hitter for the Marlins, and while he’s not a power guy by any means, he’s in Sacramento! Let’s see him hit one alongside team Conine above to cash our best MLB home run longshot pick for today!

 

 

 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Believe it or not, we have not only had crazy streaks of cashing MLB home run picks, but we’ve also had a day cashing all three of our top targets! So, while you could piece those together, here is a four-pack approach for you…

With that being our best MLB home run parlay for today, you are now locked and loaded with all types of ways to approach some dingers. Add some fireworks to the ones that you already know are coming tonight for the 4th of July!