It’s finally Friday! To add to the start of your weekend, we’re here to hook you up with some Friday night fireworks courtesy of our best MLB home run picks. Not only is it the last day of July, but it’s also the final weekend before the trade deadline, so we’re going to see both pitchers and hitters making their final cases for either new teams or for their current ones to keep them. So, let’s see how we can use that factor to provide you with the top MLB home run predictions today.

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Some guys who we know won’t be moved at the deadline are Paul Skenes and Hunter Greene, who are on the mound against one another in the same game! Since they may not be ideal for MLB home run picks, make sure that you still check out our MLB expert picks for more markets to target. That said, for more longball options, just keep our MLB home run prop tool bookmarked!

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 7/31: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Sure, Skenes vs. Greene may not be a matchup you want to target for MLB home run picks, but there are other starters worth keeping in mind. However, before we even dive into those, we always start with our MLB weather report so that we know which locations are set up with the best hitting conditions.

Speaking of hitting, the hitters themselves are the ones cashing our MLB home run predictions, so their metrics are just as important as any other factor. We love seeing high slugging values, barrel rates, and more as opposed to high walk rates and on-base percentages. What we also love to see are terrible bullpens.

Even that aspect deserves diving into, as high ERAs don’t necessarily translate to a lot of MLB home run picks cashing. So, let’s start fully diving into our top three targets!

Yordan Alvarez (+240)

Hopefully you read through our breakdowns yesterday, as we referenced Nathan Eovaldi being like Gerrit Cole - a guy that can rack up K’s but also allow plenty of homers. Well, the Rangers righty is on the mound today with his 22 homers allowed, which is tied for the fifth-most this season. That alone leads to MLB home run picks cashing, as does the matchup.

That’s because the Astros host the league leader in dingers, and the ones he hits are no-doubters far more often than not. That’s what makes this such a chalk pick, but we’re not going to pass up this spot. Lefties have the better slugging vs. Eovaldi as well, so it’s all a perfect recipe for us leading off our best MLB home run picks for today with Yordan Alvarez hitting a HR (+240 at Caesars).

Dillon Dingler (+301)

Well, we just mentioned that Eovaldi’s 22 homers allowed are among the most in the MLB, so let’s just go ahead and target the pitcher that tops that list. That would be A’s lefty starter Jeffrey Springs, who remains at 27 after not allowing a round-tripper last time out, but he’s back pitching at home, which is fantastic for MLB home run picks.

The Sacramento Triple-A ballpark has been a favorite all season for good reason, and Springs hasn’t had to pitch there the entire month of July. The entire Tigers lineup should be licking their chops, but righties even more so. With most of Detroit’s targets being lefties, that means that the catcher is the obvious one left.

It’s certainly not just by default of being a righty - he’s been mashing this year, leading to a 95th percentile .511 xSLG. Therefore, we love adding to our best MLB home run picks for today with Dillon Dingler to hit a HR (+301 at Novig).  

Carter Jensen (+323)

You’ve seen us discuss the ultimate trifecta before, and it’s back on the menu today! That would be the combination of Coors Field, starter Tomoyuki Sugano and the Colorado Rockies bullpen. We know that the Kansas City lineup is far from royal, especially without Bobby Witt, Jr., but it doesn’t take much to cash in MLB home run picks against the trifecta.

When it comes to Sugano, it’s lefties that are crushing him to the tune of a .593 slugging. That sets up extremely well for a guy that has come through for us before by hitting a leadoff homer. It was quite some time ago, but the KC catcher is still a guy that can get the job done. That said, grab Jac Caglianone if you're comfortable with the shorter odds.

For a bit more value, we’re going to add to our best MLB home run picks today with Carter Jensen hitting a HR (+323 at Novig). 

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

As great as it will feel to cash the plus-money plays above, it’s an even bigger dopamine hit when we land a longshot. So, here’s how we’re going to add to our best MLB home run picks today.

Getting this price for ANYONE at Coors Field is awesome, whether they’re known for power. In fact, it’s not just that - the Bobby Witt, Jr. fill-in gets to face Sugano and the Colorado bullpen just like teammate Carter Jensen! Let’s see several bombs hit by the mountains tonight, including our best MLB home run longshot pick!

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

What will also feel great is coming through with a for-fun parlay slip on top of all the above! So, here’s yet another way to enjoy our top MLB home run picks today.

We’ve covered a ton for you here, not to mention our newsletter bonus pick, so what’re you waiting for? Kick off your weekend with the best MLB home run picks and make it as valuable and exciting as possible!