After our +700 longshot winner and a Bobby Witt, Jr. solo shot, we’re back to needing to start a new streak with our MLB home run picks. That hasn’t been a problem for us whatsoever, and with a full, all-day-long Saturday slate, we’ve got plenty of targets to pick from. We may not have Coors Field on deck, but the Great American Ball Park has been a fan favorite this season. From Chicago in the afternoon to Dodger Stadium at night, let’s lock in the best MLB home run predictions for today!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

For more targets for MLB home run picks today, our exclusive MLB home run prop tool is where you want to be. For more market coverage, then our MLB expert picks tracker is where you want to be. As much as we love the plus-money that you’re going to see below, having more ways to enjoy the slate is always better. In terms of our top MLB home run predictions today…

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 7/11: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

So, what factors went into making those our best MLB home run picks for today? The answer to that would be a full laundry list, but first up is our MLB weather report. That way, we can see the best hitting conditions while also making sure that we don’t provide you with a pick that has a high likelihood of getting rained out.

Of course, MLB home run predictions also hinge on starting pitchers and bullpens. Everything from expected slugging to pitch type percentages and everything in between have been broken down for you. As for hitters, we start with their righty/lefty splits and get into more nuanced metrics like their barrel and hard-hit rates. For even more factors, just check out the breakdowns for each of our best MLB home run picks today!

Tyler Stephenson (+505)

The Great American Ball Park let us down last night with two Reds that we didn’t target going yard, but that’s not going to keep us away from that game. After all, Elly De La Cruz and JJ Bleday have each cashed for us multiple times before! Cinci will keep getting our love with MLB home run picks, and today’s is going to be the biggest surprise yet.

This is borderline longshot territory, but we’re still willing to make it a top three target. Sal Stewart is your safer swap here, but we love the catcher against Javier Assad today. The Chicago Cubs righty throws sinkers to righties at an extremely high 61% clip, and Stephenson is hitting .441 with four homers against such pitches this season!

Along with his 10.5% barrel rate, 45.2% hard-hit rate and 40.1% sweet-spot rate, this price is too valuable. So, we’re leading off our best MLB home run picks for today with Tyler Stephenson to hit a HR (+505 at FanDuel).

Trent Grisham (+365)

Our second favorite location for homers today is Nationals Park, where Ben Rice cashed a YRFI pick for us yesterday. He did so with a round-tripper in the first, which came after his two-homer day the previous game prior. The first baseman is getting into HR Derby form, and we’re rolling with one of his teammates today.

As much as we love James Wood and much of the Nats lineup, taking on Cam Schlittler is zero fun. What is extremely fun is taking on Washington starter Miles Mikolas and their extremely poor bullpen. The one positive metric for Mikolas is his low walk rate - sounds good, keep things in the zone for us!

Both lefties and righties eat vs. Mikolas, so let’s get a dinger even earlier than Rice’s if the center fielder leads off; we’re adding to our best MLB home run picks for today with Trent Grisham hitting a HR (+365 at DraftKings).

Seiya Suzuki (+285)

You can’t say that we haven’t provided you with value thus far, so as we head back to the Cubs vs. Reds NL Central rivalry, we’re going to be taking the guy with the shortest odds to homer. He’s far from the biggest guy across the two lineups, but it still makes sense facing Nick Lodolo, which is only the start of why the outfielder is part of our top MLB home run picks today.

You’ve seen us say it before - Cincinnati has one of the MLB’s worst bullpens. Even still, we expect this one to come early after Chicago got shut out last night with Suzuki’s prowess vs. lefties. Not only is he hitting .307/.547/.947 against them over the season, but last month specifically, he crushed them to the tune of .360/.680/1.118!

We simply can’t ignore those numbers, so we love continuing our best MLB home run picks for today with Seiya Suzuki hitting a HR (+285 at bet365).

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Those are our top three targets, and we’re already getting awesome potential payouts from them. As great as those plus-money prices are, there are even juicier ones. For example, this longshot addition to our top MLB home run picks today…

Is the Reds center fielder known for power? Nope. However, simply being a lefty is great news against Javier Assad. Again, we expect more fireworks in Cincinnati today, so we love this price for our best MLB home run longshot pick today.

 

 

 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

That huge potential payout still requires us to bank on a guy without the best homer metrics. However, we can still create an even bigger potential payout using guys more likely to come through for MLB home run picks in a for-fun parlay…

Of course, we’ll need them all to hit, but you could also just play one of those guys by themselves and still get solid odds! Our MLB home run picks are yours to use in any fashion, including mixing and matching any of the names above in a round robin!