It’s time to get the weekend started, and there is no better way to create our own Friday night fireworks than with our best MLB home run picks for today! There are no afternoon games, so that means a jam-packed evening of targets to break down, including many new series getting underway. From Zack Wheeler in the early window to Drew Rasmussen as far from Tampa Bay as it gets in Seattle, we’ve got so much to dive into and provide you with the top MLB home run predictions today!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

We may not want to target Wheeler or Rasmussen for MLB home run picks, but we may want to for K props or the like, so make sure that you check in with our MLB expert picks for more market coverage. That includes basic game markets for those that want to keep things nice and simple. Of course, that’s all on top of MLB home run predictions, and for more targets in that regard, just utilize our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 8/7: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

It’s not just avoiding aces that we have to consider to lock in the best MLB home run picks. We’ve also got our MLB weather report to check in with, and thankfully, that can knock out quite a bit with so many games in the Northeast this weekend. It’s also great to check in on how well the hitting conditions have been in Kansas City this season.

Also affecting MLB home run picks are, of course, the hitters themselves. We’ll see how they match up with today’s starters in terms of righty/lefty splits, pitch type performances, and their hard-hit rates, barrel rates, and more. We also can never forget bullpens, as it’s not only starters on the mound (usually). You’ll see even more factors below as we fully break down each of our best MLB home run picks for today!

Brice Turang (+555)

For us to enjoy yet another four-day streak of winners, we’re going to start with a location that isn’t a classic for us. American Family Field in Milwaukee is one that may or may not be open, which you can check on as first pitch approaches, but it’s not like it will become Wrigley Field. It’s more about the Minnesota Twins starter for our MLB home run picks.

That would be Zebby Matthews. We’re not going to tell you that he’s DFA-worthy by any means, but the Brewers southpaws can mash here. Normally, it’s a pick-your-poison with Jake Bauers and Brice Turang, but the former has been banged up. If he plays, roll with him, but we love this great price for a guy who’s hit 15 of his 16 homers vs. righties.

He also just doesn’t chase pitches, which isn’t super common for guys we target here, so again, we love leading off our best MLB home run picks for today with Brice Turang hitting a HR (+555 at FanDuel).

Pete Crow-Armstrong (+414)

Ok, now we’re going to head to a location that you’ve seen us focus on this season, and for good reason. Kauffman Stadium remains a top-five ballpark for homers, so there is no need to be upset that the Chicago Cubs are on the road rather than at windy Wrigley. After all, PCA is looking to keep cashing MLB home run picks en route to an NL MVP.

He recently overtook Shohei Ohtani as the favorite, which speaks volumes in itself. For more great news for the Cubs, the Royals are starting Daniel Lynch, a reliever. That’s tough news for KC fans, as they’ve had a bottom-three bullpen ERA all season. While this is going to feel like a chalk pick, at a +400 price, what are we even doing here?

Go with Suzuki as a pivot, but we’ll ride the hot hand for almost the same price by adding to our best MLB home run picks for today with Pete Crow-Armstrong hitting a HR (+414 at Novig).

Luis Garcia, Jr. (+365)

The former Washington Nationals first baseman has already proven himself to the New York Yankees by homering in his debut, and he gets to enjoy the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium once again. The sheer fact that the Bronx Bombers snagged the first baseman proves how much they loved him - they already had Ben Rice at the position and also cashing MLB home run picks!

Rather than diving into other positions they could have addressed, let’s just focus on Garcia’s .509 expected slugging (92nd percentile) and how much he crushes righties. The southpaw has hit them to the tune of a .697 slugging, leading to 21 of his 24 homers. That’s great news with the Atlanta Braves pushing back Chris Sale’s start and rolling with Tyler Mahle.

He was also a trade acquisition (from the San Francisco Giants) to make this a matchup of two new faces in new places to cash our MLB home run picks - we’re adding to them with Luis Garcia, Jr. hitting a HR (+365 at bet365).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Longshots are always an awesome way to add to our top MLB home run picks, especially when we’ve hit a couple over the past week. Since just one winner can cover several picks, here’s one that we’d consider locking in today!

Look, this isn’t our craziest, juiciest longshot, but look at the name attached to this price. A leadoff homer is absolutely in play vs. Zebby, so this pairs perfectly with Turang. Let’s roll with the Milwaukee DH as our best MLB home run longshot pick for today.

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

You can never have too many ways to make MLB home run predictions, so how about a for-fun parlay? The names below are our favorite way to cook up a monster potential payout!

Again, Friday night fireworks are in store, so let’s make the all-evening slate as valuable as possible. Whether that means just sticking with our top three targets or mixing and matching everything above, our best MLB home run picks are now yours to use as you wish!