July closed out with a bang thanks to us cashing two of our top three MLB home run picks, so it’s time to close out this weekend in the same way. The start of August has featured prime targets like Coors Field and Sutter Health Park, and now we’ve got plenty of afternoon weather to capitalize on. While we may want to avoid the likes of Zack Wheeler, we’ve also seen Jacob Misiorowski allow some MLB home run predictions to cash with the heat of his four-seamer. Let’s break it all down to see who is worth targeting!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Along with breaking down the full slate for MLB home run picks, we also do the same for other markets, which is why you’ll also want to check out our MLB expert picks. It pairs perfectly with the longball action, as much as we love the prices for these plays. Speaking of the longball action, if MLB home run predictions are all you care about, then also bookmark our exclusive MLB home run prop tool! As for our favorite names today…

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 8/2: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Don’t worry - we have endless tools for you to take advantage of for the best MLB home run picks, which includes our MLB weather report. We mentioned afternoon conditions to break down, and we also already mentioned our next big factor - starting pitchers. Paired with those are their bullpens and how well they do at allowing/preventing dingers.

Of course, MLB home run picks are actually cashed in by the hitters themselves. So, it’s then time to see how they match up against the opposing starter in terms of lefty/righty splits, pitch types and some expected numbers like slugging and hard-hit rates. We also love seeing high barrel rates, average exit velocities and more.

There is a ton that goes into making sure that we’re hooking you up with the absolute best MLB home run picks, so let’s break down today’s top three targets!

Mickey Moniak (+301)

We’ve cashed in with Royals round-trippers at Coors Field the past two nights and had Hunter Goodman in our parlay, so now it’s time to show the home team a bit more love. The catcher went ahead and homered twice last night to close in on Yordan Alvarez’s league lead, but for our best MLB home picks today, we’re on Colorado’s lefty.

Mickey Moniak isn’t always in the lineup due to being such a different hitter vs. fellow lefties and righties, but with KC starting Seth Lugo today, this is a matchup in which he can shine. Multiple homers are absolutely on the table not only against Lugo’s 44.9% hard-hit rate, but also the Royals bullpen and their league-worst ERA.

On top of all that is the southpaw’s .605 slugging vs. righties, so let’s lead off our best MLB home run picks today with Mickey Moniak hitting a HR (+301 at Novig).

Nathaniel Lowe (+445)

After dealing with Paul Skenes and Braxton Ashcraft to start the series, we finally get a much better matchup for the Cincinnati Reds so that we get to enjoy the Great American Ball Park. It’ll be Mitch Keller toeing the rubber for the Pittsburgh today, which means we are all about lefties coming through with MLB home run picks.

Elly De La Cruz is more than a viable target here, but we’re going to go with a guy who has some of the most drastic splits in all of baseball. This Reds lefty has a .509 slugging vs. righties (great news!) while having a .083 slugging vs. lefties (wait, what?). Unsurprisingly, all 12 of his homers are against right-handed pitchers this season.

Let’s ride his 39.2% sweet-spot rate and amazing matchup and add to our top MLB home run picks today with Nathaniel Lowe hitting a HR (+445 at DraftKings).

Alec Burleson (+405)

We could easily finish off the trifecta of Coors Field, Great American Ball Park and Sutter Health Park to take the low-hanging fruit, but we have a different angle for you. Not only are we heading north of the border to Toronto, but we’re not even going with the current HR Derby king with our MLB home run picks, but rather his teammate.

Look, both sides of the plate are absolutely mashing Max Scherzer, but with the slightly more ridiculous .638 slugging to lefties, we’re going with Burleson over Jordan Walker. Righties still have a .531 slugging as well, so go with Walker if you prefer, but we love the first baseman’s .543 slugging vs. right-handed pitching.

That’s led to 12 of his 15 homers coming against such pitching, so let’s exploit the old man on the mound and add to our best MLB home run picks today with Alec Burleson hitting a HR (+405 at Caesars).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

That’s a top three AND a bonus target, but let’s keep our MLB home run picks going with the most valuable potential payout yet. In other words, our best longshot option…

Anytime we can get this price for a guy at Coors Field, we’re going to be interested at the very least. Not to mention this is a leadoff man who gets to face Seth Lugo and the terrible KC bullpen, so now we’re beyond interested. We love the value for this MLB home run longshot pick and could see this lefty cash it in the first inning!

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

If you still want more skin in the game, we’ve got you covered. A for-fun parlay is a way to get another longshot payout of sorts while relying on guys known for dingers rather than a non-power hitter. So, here are more top MLB home run picks for today…

If you don’t want to sweat out all three of those guys going yard, they are also great individual targets as well. We’ve gone above and beyond just the best MLB home run picks for today, so make sure that you utilize it all to close out your weekend with as much value and excitement as possible!