If you’re bummed that last weekend is well in the rearview and we still have a few days for the next one - don’t be; we’ve got our best MLB home run picks for today, that are going for NINE straight winning days thanks to Jordan Walker last night! Not only do we have a full slate to choose from, but we’ve also got plenty of afternoon action. With the NFL season right around the corner, these monster plus-money plays are the perfect way to get ready for it. After going through each matchup on the board, we’ve locked in the top MLB home run predictions for today!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

While we’ve found three spots (and more) that we love, there are also some aces on the mound to avoid, like Chris Sale, Jacob Misiorowski, Dylan Cease AND Cam Schlittler. With that type of loaded slate, you’ll want to go beyond MLB home run predictions with our very own MLB expert picks. As for the aforementioned top three spots…

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 9/2: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

There is a ton that goes into choosing our MLB home run picks, but there is one place that we always start - our MLB weather report! No one wants a target that ends up having the game postponed or has 25 mph winds blowing in, so be sure to check that out as well. After that, it’s about the guys actually on the mound and at the plate.

Starting with the mound, starters influence MLB home run picks with their allowed barrel rates, hard-hit rates, expected slugging, ISO, and more. Hitters have more of the same metrics to analyze, plus launch-angle sweet-spot rates. As for bullpens, we can check out their overall performances in terms of both overall contact and actual HRs allowed.

Each factor creates a recipe for MLB home run picks, and after determining which of those look best to us, we’ve decided upon the spots that we’ve broken down below!

Coby Mayo (+285)

Our favorite trifecta is on the board, so it’s only fitting that we start there, especially because it’s one of the afternoon matchups. It’s the trio of Tomoyuki Sugano starting, the Colorado Rockies bullpen coming in after him (likely early), and the game at Coors Field. It truly is the perfect recipe for MLB home run picks, and therefore, the O’s lineup.

We expect far more fireworks to close out the series than how it began in that 2-1 O’s victory. When it comes to Sugano, we really don’t have to be picky, as both sides of the plate can smash the righty. That said, it is still an overall better spot for lefties, and Baltimore has options with Coby Mayo, Gunnar Henderson, Samuel Basallo, and more.

You could even consider more value with Colton Cowser, but we’re leading off our best MLB home run picks for today with a guy who cashed for us recently - Coby Mayo hitting a HR (25.97%, so +285, at ProphetX). 

Jackson Merrill (+456)

Another combo that we’ve loved is the Great American Ball Park and the Cincinnati Reds bullpen, so let’s head there next. We were here to start their series, and while there are other popular names to target like Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis, Jr. for San Diego, we’re spinning things back to a guy who was part of our MLB home run picks recently.

That’s because we have the interesting case of Brandon Williamson. The Reds southpaw made just six starts to start this season after missing all of 2025, so that means early bullpen usage. The interesting part is that it’s fellow lefties crushing him in what is a drastic split - a massive .350 ISO allowed to lefties compared to just a .134 ISO allowed to righties.

Meanwhile, Merrill is a strong lefty vs. lefty hitter with a nearly identical slugging percentage against them compared to his slugging vs. righties. Tatis still looks great, especially once that bullpen comes in, but we’re adding to our top MLB home run picks today with Jackson Merrill hitting a HR (18%, so +456, at Novig). 

Yordan Alvarez (+300)

After two southpaws, why not round things out with another one? This one is far better known than the ones above, and is arguably the best hitter on the planet. That said, he still has work to do to catch Kyle Schwarber for the HR lead. Thanks to Davis Martin starting, he can do so and help us keep cashing MLB home run picks.

The Chicago White Sox righty has fallen off a cliff since a solid start to the season, especially most recently. He’s coming off the IL after lasting just three TOTAL innings across his last two starts, and in his three August starts, recorded five TOTAL strikeouts. On top of that, he has an eighth-percentile hard-hit rate vs. Yordan’s 97th-percentile hard-hit rate.

Houston’s superstar also has several 98th to 100th percentile metrics, but we’ll save you from the laundry list and just tell you that we love adding to our best MLB home run picks for today with Yordan Alvarez hitting a HR (+300 at FanDuel). 

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

It wasn’t long ago that we added to our MLB home run picks with a +910 longshot that cashed for us, so let’s go big once again with today’s target…

It’s always nice when we can get longshot odds for an afternoon Coors Field game, and yes, this guy has cashed MULTIPLE longshot picks for us. That’s crazy in itself, and he’d have 15 homers if not for the Colton Cowser robbery on Monday. Regardless, he’s an excellent lefty vs. lefty (.500 slugging) taking on Trevor Rogers, so let’s enjoy his 92nd percentile launch-angle sweet-spot rate for our best MLB home run longshot pick today.

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Speaking of going big, we can do so without having to rely on a guy not quite as known for homers. That’s by combining some MLB home run picks into a for-fun parlay…

We’ve got two guys in the first two games of the day plus one to root for along with the aforementioned Yordan Alvarez. Root for each of our MLB home run picks and make the most of this all-day baseball!