As if a 16-game MLB slate (yes, there’s a doubleheader!) wasn’t exciting enough, we’re coming off a night in which we cashed TWO of our best MLB home run picks! Today, we’ve got Jacob Misiorowski on the mound to scare us away, but that’s just the afternoon game. We also have other guys to consider targeting, like Seth Lugo and Zac Gallen, not to mention HR-friendly ballparks like the one in Cincinnati. So, let’s start getting into some top MLB home run predictions!

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⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

For even more MLB home run picks beyond our top spots, simply utilize our exclusive MLB home run prop tool! For even more market coverage than homers, simply take advantage of our MLB expert picks! Now that you’ve got a plethora of tools, here’s who we love for our top MLB home run predictions today…

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 7/7: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Ok, there is actually one more tool that we want to share with you - our MLB weather report, as environmental conditions are ones that you see us note for dingers all the time. Of course, that’s only where we start for our MLB home run picks.

From there, it’s all about the starters on the mound, and we certainly prefer to target guys NOT like The Miz. From HR/FB and HR/9 ratios to pitch types, we break it all down. The same can be said for hitters with metrics like the righty/lefty splits, expected slugging, and more. Rather than just providing a laundry list of stat types, let’s just get into the breakdowns for our best MLB home run picks today.

JJ Bleday (+345)

If, for some reason, you haven’t believed us that the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati hasn’t been great for homers, Kyle Schwarber has odds at around +170 to go yard today. That’s painfully low, which is why we’re swapping to the home team. We also gave out Bryce Harper as part of our MLB home run picks, but he’s still a great target today.

Cinci is starting Andrew Abbott, so a few Phillies bats should go deep. With this approach, it’s riskier, as it appears that Philly is no longer slotting Zack Wheeler in as the starter today, as was originally planned. That means we’re playing this a bit dark, but this is yet another lefty that has cashed for us multiple times this season and is due in a big way.

He’s got the third-shortest odds in this game for a reason, so we’re comfortable with leading off our top MLB home run picks today with JJ Bleday to hit a HR (+345 at FanDuel).

Yordan Alvarez (+340)

James Wood’s grand slam cashed one of our picks last night AND helped us hit the over 9.5 for that game (23 runs were scored), and we’re back at National Stadium to cash in again. We won’t get to pick on Houston starter Mike Burrows again, and now, we’re focused on the Astros lineup with our MLB home run picks.

The target comes as zero surprise, and after getting leap-frogged by Wood in terms of the league lead for HRR, we’re on the lefty putting in work to get it back. It will make this not only a lefty-on-lefty crime (which is what he’s known for), but also an Alvarez-on-Alvarez crime! Let’s also not forget that Washington has the 3rd-worst bullpen ERA!

It’s all a great recipe for us, adding to our best MLB home run picks for today with Yordan Alvarez to hit a HR (+340 at FanDuel).

Freddie Freeman (+365)

The only one of our top three targets that DIDN’T cash last night was Max Muncy, so you already know what we’re going to say - he’s going yard tonight FOR SURE. Thankfully, several LA guys can do so, especially lefties, when we see Michael Lorenzen on the mound. He’s one of the worst starters, period, so we’re picking on him to cash more MLB home run picks.

He’s particularly terrible against lefties (like Muncy and Shohei Ohtani) with his 2.14 WHIP and colossal .640 slugging percentage allowed. Freeman is among those who can smash him, as he’s hitting .314 against right-handed pitching this season, which includes 11 of his homers, a .541 slugging, and .944 OPS. Those numbers are right alongside Ohtani, so it’s difficult to refute the first baseman being a top target today. Along with Colorado’s awful bullpen, we love adding to our best MLB home run picks for today with Freddie Freeman hitting a HR (+365 at BetMGM). 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Those same factors above can be used for an even bigger potential payout, even if they aren’t as prominent. It’s why we get such longer odds, but here’s an awesome way to add to our MLB home run picks above…

Well, we said that the Phillies lineup looked strong vs. Abbott, and if there’s one guy that can smash lefties that is under the radar, it’s Stott. He’s doing so with a .300 average - the best on the team - making him our best MLB home run longshot pick for today.
 

 

 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

There are countless ways to make the most dingers, including pairing multiple guys together to hit a round-tripper! That’s how we can get a truly monster potential payout, so here’s a for-fun play along with our top MLB home run picks…

Those guys are also great names to target for individual picks, and you can also just combine our top three picks together for a parlay angle. Everything above is yours to use to lock in the best MLB home run picks possible!