We’ve had full slates all week after the awesome weekend, and today takes that to the next level. We have TWO doubleheaders across the afternoon and evening 17-game slate, so there are so many opportunities for MLB home run picks. However, it also means that it can feel overwhelming to break it all down and find the absolute best spots. Not to worry - that’s what we’re here for! We’ve checked everything out and hooked you up with the best MLB home run predictions for today!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

So many games all day long means that many fans will want to go beyond MLB home run picks as well, which is why we’ll also make sure to share our MLB expert picks. For even more beneficial tools, make sure to also bookmark our exclusive MLB home run prop tool. That will help you enjoy even more MLB home run predictions than the ones below…

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 7/22: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

If you’re wondering what we consider to lock in our best MLB home run picks, there are virtually countless factors. That said, we have to start somewhere, and that’s with our very own MLB weather report. From there, it’s all about starting pitchers, and a day after multiple postponements, that is even more important with teams moving around rotations.

Also contributing to MLB home run predictions, of course, are the hitters themselves. Some guys perform better against righties rather than lefties and vice versa, not to mention expected numbers (some guys are simply unluckier than others) and performance against certain pitch types. Along with bullpens, let’s see exactly what the most important factors for today’s MLB home run picks are.

Andy Pages (+530)

The marquee series of the slate is Dodgers vs. Phillies, and after the delay last night, it was a low-scoring 2-1 game. With it featuring Justin Wrobleski and Zack Wheeler, that doesn’t come as a huge surprise, but the pitching matchup today should allow multiple dingers. That’s why we’re starting at Citizens Bank Park with our MLB home run picks.

It’s a solid hitter’s park, and let’s be honest, Kyle Schwarber is the most likely to homer. However, we’re simply not in the business of giving out home odds in the +100’s. Not only are we pivoting, but we’re swapping teams entirely to pick on Aaron Nola. While he does love throwing curves, which aren’t always the best for homers, it’s not so bad with Nola.

He’s allowed 19 dingers this year, and the Dodgers center fielder is hitting .455 vs. such pitches this year, albeit a small sample size. It’s still enough for us to lead off our best MLB home run picks for today with Andy Pages hitting a HR (+530 at DraftKings).

Mike Trout (+345)

The Angels superstar apparently doesn’t mind being in a lineup without much help around him by always staying in LA, but that said, teammate Jo Adell has gone yard in back-to-back games. Meanwhile, Trout hasn’t homered since July 8, which means we know that he didn’t crush one when we targeted him in our MLB home run picks less than a week ago.

We aren’t going to let that streak cause hesitation given his track record and the fact that this season, he still has a 98th percentile xwOBA at .401, 97th percentile xSLG at .540, and 99th percentile barrel rate at 19.4%. Perhaps the best part about this season specifically is his 97th percentile chase rate at just 19.8%.  

Cards starter Hunter Dobbins is still trying to get into form with just one or two outings in each month of the season, so we’re adding to our top MLB home run picks today with Mike Trout hitting a HR (+345 at FanDuel).

Ben Rice (+255) - GAME 1 

Rounding out our top three is actually spinning things back to the first game of the day. The Pirates vs. Yankees postponement last night gives us a doubleheader today, so make sure that you note the Game 1 specification above. That’s because we want to pick on Pittsburgh Pirates starter Mitch Keller with our MLB home run picks.

The New York All-Star is looking to join the 30-homer club after six homers in July, but none over the past six games. We’re picking on Keller thanks to his low metrics across the board from his xBA, whiff rate, K rate, hard-hit rate, and more. Lefties also have a .500 slugging against the righty, which is the best news of all.

We love the first baseman’s .530 xSLG as well, so let’s lock in Ben Rice to hit a HR (+255 at bet365) as part of our best MLB home run picks for today.

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Three top targets AND an exclusive bonus pick are awesome, but why not keep the good times rolling? After all, longshot odds make things even more exciting. Here’s how we’re adding to our best MLB home run picks above…

Let’s circle back to Angel Stadium and root for the home team getting dingers from more than just Trout. Again, Dobbins has hardly been on the mound this year, and the second baseman actually has a solid xSLG of .430. It’s still an MLB home run longshot pick, but at these odds, it’s a valuable play.

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

There are even more ways to enjoy the longball, including round robins, but we prefer a for-fun parlay angle. This way, you also have more individual names worth playing if you want to go that route. Either way, here’s yet another way to add to our top MLB home run picks today…

Not only could you make a different parlay with the first three names, but you could also just target the games these guys are in rather than the specific players. Again, it’s entirely up to you, but it’s a monster day on the diamond; make the most of it with our best MLB home run picks for today!