Our best MLB home run picks were as hot as ever over the weekend, and after a very light Monday that also featured extra variables with the MLB trade deadline winners and losers, let's get back to that. After all, the biggest MLB trades 2026 will be possible targets, including the Tarik Skubal Dodgers debut! Ok, we may not want to target him with our top MLB home run predictions today, but we’ll break it all down to see who makes the cut.

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

We know the big question right now: is Tarik Skubal starting for the Dodgers today? So, to help you add to our best MLB home run picks today, make sure to check in with our MLB expert picks. Given the moves made over the past couple of days, there could be some serious spots to take advantage of. That said, since we’re all about MLB home run predictions here, also keep our MLB home run prop tool bookmarked!

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 8/4: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Yet another tool that you’ll want to keep bookmarked is our MLB weather report, as it’s where we start with our MLB home run picks. That’s especially true given the rain that we’ve seen in the Northeast the past few days and windy Wrigley Field on the menu. After that, it’s all about the starters on the mound - yes, there is more than just Tarik Skubal pitching tonight.

Then, it’s time to check out bullpens; it’s not only the starters that will be on the mound to impact MLB home run picks! Ok, a complete game here or there happens, but still, it’s hitters that are next up. We want to see their righty/lefty splits, expected numbers (such as slugging), performance against specific pitch types, and more.

There truly is so much that goes into cashing these MLB home run picks, so let’s start breaking down our top three targets!

Max Muncy (+340)

We burned ourselves last night by swapping OFF Bryce Harper for Kyle Schwarber given how “due” he is since the HR Derby, so we’d be remiss to avoid telling you the other target on our mind here - Freddie Freeman. In other words, yes, we expect several MLB home run picks to cash for LA to give Tarik Skubal some run support.

While the lefty is making his debut and there isn’t the crazy Wrigley Field wind blowing out, we still love some lefty bats vs. Javier Assad. That’s who is starting for the Chicago Cubs tonight, who gave up multiple homers in four of five starts shortly after returning from the IL. Even without that, the LA lineup is simply matchup-proof.

Freddie gets you a higher payout, but this one is still valuable enough for us to lead off our best MLB home run picks today with Max Muncy hitting a HR (+340 at Caesars).

Kody Clemens (+450)

The location that we’ve discussed for quite some time that is the sneaky spot for homers this season is Kansas City. It wasn’t on the board yesterday, but now we get to see it on the menu for Twins vs. Royals. Joe Ryan hasn’t been himself, but we still prefer to target the KC starter for MLB home run picks, as it’s Randy Dobnak.

We don’t get to target Byron Buxton, but we will see a lefty that hit a homer when these AL Central rivals met just two series ago. Like Kauffman Stadium, the first baseman has been under the radar when it comes to homers, but he’s going for #20 tonight. He’s also hit 14 of his 19 against righties, which is great vs. Dobnak.

Along with his elite 93rd percentile average exit velocity, we’re adding to our best MLB home run picks today with Kody Clemens hitting a HR (+450 at bet365).

Yordan Alvarez (+233)

It’s not often that we can say that targeting arguably the best hitter in the world is against the grain, but tonight, it is in a way. That’s because we’re not targeting Coors Field or the Great American Ball Park to round out our trio or one of the worst starters on the board. Instead, we’re picking on Trey Yesavage for our MLB home run picks.

He’s actually a guy we’ve cashed K props for, but he can be very inconsistent (he had just four last start). The one prior, he allowed multiple homers, and while it’s not a classic lefty vs. lefty matchup for Yordan, there is another key factor. Yesavage is a splitter thrower, and Alvarez loves seeing those - he’s hitting .476 against such pitches this season.

Along with 100th percentile metrics virtually across the board, the chalk play from our best MLB home run picks today is Yordan Alvarez hitting a HR (+233 at Novig).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

We’re just two days removed from cashing our lofty longshot, so let’s go beyond that bonus pick with some supreme value to add to our top MLB home run picks!

Ok, NOW we’ll head to Coors Field. Remember, this guy is no longer a Marlin, and we also just saw Luis Garcia, Jr. homer for his new team last night. Hicks has hit 13 of his 14 homers vs. righties and gets Gabriel Hughes and the Colorado Rockies bullpen, so we love this as our best MLB home run longshot pick for today!

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

If you’re looking for a for-fun parlay angle, you can absolutely just combine our top three targets. That said, if you’d also like some new names in the mix, consider adding to our best MLB home run picks with a Dodgers vs. Cubs HR SGP…

In total, you’re now armed with seven - eight once you sign up for the FREE newsletter - for you to consider. All that's left now is to lock in what you love most from our best MLB home run picks for today!