The MLB trade deadline is just hours away, so let’s add to some upcoming breaking news with the best MLB home run picks! The only bummer is a light slate, but it’s our job to still be able to find spots worth targeting and that provide you with value, just like last night’s longshot winner at +800 with Jake McCarthy! We get to see more divisional rivalries in the NL along with plenty of lefty arms on the mound plus an ace like Cam Schlittler; let’s break it all down and come up with the best MLB home run predictions for today! 

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

The rivalries we noted above are Nationals vs. Phillies, Pirates vs. Brewers, and Padres vs. Diamondbacks, so make sure that you see what else we have in store beyond our MLB home run picks with our MLB expert picks. That said, we’re all about round-trippers here, and to add to the three names below, feel free to take advantage of our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 8/3: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

So, why are those our best MLB home run picks? Well, that’s a loaded question given how many factors go into them, but everything starts with our MLB weather report. After all, we’ve got windy Wrigley Field on the menu (again) leading up to Coors Field.

Also factoring into the best MLB home run picks are, of course, the pitchers on the mound and the hitters at the plate. We’ve analyzed how they match up in terms of righty/lefty splits, pitch types, and more advanced metrics like expected numbers. You’ll see exactly what we mean as we fully dive into each of our top MLB home run picks today!

Jonathan Aranda (+435)

With another series at Coors Field on the menu after the weekend saw us cash multiple dingers there, how could we not start a new week at the same location? Rather than the Kansas City Royals in town, it’s the Tampa Bay Rays making the long trip, and our pick may surprise you. That’s because it’s Junior Caminero that has been cashing MLB home run picks the most.

However, the Colorado Rockies are starting Michael Lorenzen. If there is a guy that is the epitome of having a lefty problem, it’s him - southpaws have a .610 slugging against him! That’s while primarily throwing them change-ups, making that even more embarrassing. Speaking of embarrassing, the Rockies have had a bottom-five bullpen all season.

With that in mind, take Caminero since it could come later in the game as well, but to exploit the Lorenzen matchup specifically, we’re going to lead off our best MLB home run picks for today with Jonathan Aranda hitting a HR (+435 at bet365).

Kyle Schwarber (+245)

There is no denying that the Philadelphia Phillies lineup (not their rotation) has given their fans plenty to groan about. Thankfully for the Philly faithful, facing the Washington Nationals is the perfect remedy. The aforementioned Colorado bullpen is awful, but no bullpen has allowed more MLB home run picks to cash than the one in the nation’s capital.

They’re approaching 80 on the season, and before we even get to capitalize on their relief staff, Zack Littell is expected to be the long man after an opener (Trevor Williams for now). That’s incredible news given his abysmal numbers across the board (15th percentile or worse in nine major categories we look at), and lefties have been the biggest beneficiaries.

That’s with a .552 slugging and 18 of his 25 homers allowed, and we know that Philly has some big southpaws. After Bryce Harper went yard last night, we’re adding to our best MLB home run picks for today with Kyle Schwarber hitting a HR (+245 at DraftKings).

CJ Abrams (+415)

That’s right - we’re just going to stick with the same Nationals vs. Phillies NL East rivalry. With it being the first game of the slate, it means we could end up cashing in multiple times nice and early! While Littell has some awful numbers, Phillies starter Aaron Nola is right alongside him in terms of allowing MLB home run picks to hit, having given up 26 homers this year!

The two are trying to catch Jeffrey Springs for the most in the MLB, and that’s with Nola loving to throw his curveball to both sides of the plate. It clearly isn’t fooling anyone or preventing hard contact, and with Washington’s lineup, it’s a classic pick-your-poison situation. Well, not as much anymore - Curtis Mead has been gone, and Luis Garcia, Jr. is now a Yankee!

Therefore, as you’ve already seen, we’ll be adding to our best MLB home run picks for today with CJ Abrams hitting a HR (+415 at FanDuel).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Don’t let the light slate have you thinking that those are the only worthwhile targets. For even more value to tack onto our best MLB home run picks above, here’s our favorite longshot play!

As mentioned, we hit yesterday’s top spot with Jake McCarthy, so why not go right back to Coors Field? We’ve seen plenty of non-power guys hit dingers there, so we love making the right fielder our best MLB home run longshot pick for today!

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Speaking of value, let’s keep it coming. We can do just that with today’s for-fun parlay as a monster way to continue adding to our MLB home run picks!

We were all about players in East divisions as a theme for our top three targets, and now it’s just all about guys that have been top targets for dingers overall. By piecing them together, we’re getting much more value compared to their relatively short odds. It’s not the craziest parlay, but you’re now set up with our best MLB home run picks for today and more!