When it comes to light days on the diamond, Thursdays are exactly that; today features just seven games! Not to worry - our best MLB home run picks for today are here to make it feel far more exciting, especially after making it back-to-back winning days with a Matt Olson homer AND hitting our longshot on Kaelen Culpepper at +880! Even without Coors Field or Sutter Health Park on deck, there are some pitchers we can take advantage of. We’ve done the digging for you so that you don’t have to do any of the work while still being able to lock in the top MLB home run predictions for today!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

While there are spots we like for MLB home run picks, since we also have Cam Schlittler and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, if you want more types of predictions, then check out our MLB expert picks. That’s right - even more ways to make the small slate even more valuable! With that in mind, you can also uncover more MLB home run predictions with our exclusive MLB home run prop tool.

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 8/27: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

You’ve already seen that we don’t have Coors Field or Sutter Health Park to target, but that doesn’t mean that weather won’t be affecting MLB home run picks tonight. Other than Toronto, that can be the case, which is why our MLB weather report is a great first stop. Beyond that, we’ve analyzed the starters on the mound beyond the aforementioned big names.

This means looking into what we’ve actually seen from the righty/lefty splits and some metrics that are expected so that we can predict if regression is in store or not. We take that same consideration into account for hitters with metrics like ISO vs. expected ISO as well as their barrel rates, hard-hit rates, and more.

Even if starters vs. hitters aren’t perfect matchups, bullpens can sway the needle, and you’ll see exactly what we mean with our top MLB home run picks below!

Mickey Moniak (+350)

When it comes to the Colorado Rockies, it’s all about Hunter Goodman and Mickey Moniak when you’re looking for homers, and that’s just fine. Both guys have cashed for us this season, and we even enjoy a Jake McCarthy longshot homer pick. As for where we’re leading off our best MLB home run picks for today, it’s all about this lefty.

That’s because with the Washington Nationals starting Jake Irvin, southpaws are the way to go. The righty has allowed a .186 ISO to lefties, but the expected is a .234 ISO. Irvin also has a fourth-percentile chase rate, which perfectly alleviates Moniak’s biggest issue - chasing. We also love seeing Irvin’s fourth- and fifth-percentile barrel and hard-hit rates, respectively.

Let’s enjoy the very first game of the light slate with our MLB home run picks cashing thanks to Mickey Moniak hitting a HR (+350 at ProphetX).

Jac Caglianone (+420)

We’re heading from the nation’s capital to Canada for the Royals vs. Blue Jays series. It’s been all about KC’s hot streak as of late rather than the team trying to avoid last place in the AL East, and we’re going to pile on Toronto. That’s because they’re featuring Spencer Arrighetti again, which is great news for MLB home run picks.

For his team debut, he was given an opener, so you can already see the faith that they have in him. When he did enter the game, he gave up a homer as well. We said to expect regression from righty, and even with him prioritizing his curveball, he’s still a guy we want to pick on, especially from the left side of the plate.

That’s why we’re not going with Bobby Witt, but rather the 2026 HR Derby contestant with our best MLB home run picks today - we’re rolling with Jac Caglianone hitting a HR (+420 at ProphetX).

Jackson Chourio (+480)

Jacob Misiorowski headlines the Brewers vs. Mets series, and rightfully so, but Milwaukee’s lineup is still on the board for locking in dingers. They’re taking on a lefty in Sean Manaea, who has a fifth-percentile barrel rate, so say less. One of our favorite under-the-radar guys (Brice Turang) cashed MLB home run picks with his three-run bomb, and he’s in the +900s tonight!

That would make this a lefty-on-lefty crime, but against Manaea, we want to focus on a righty. They have a .495 slugging percentage against the southpaw, so it’s all about picking our poison between Jackson Chourio and William Contreras. We like not only the slightly higher power with the former, but also the fact that Manaea’s lack of swing-and-miss ability alleviates Chourio’s biggest issue.

Contreras will give you the bigger price tag, but we’re adding to our best MLB home run picks for today with Jackson Chourio hitting a HR (+480 at ProphetX).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

While the menu may not be huge to choose from, there are always still spots for extreme value. That means adding to our best MLB home run picks above with today’s longshot option…

Well, we already alluded to it, so why not just lock it in? We’ll continue to love these odds for a guy who has 13 homers on the year and gets to leadoff against Jake Irvin and then face the bullpen that has allowed the most dingers this year. It’s not often we can say that our best MLB home run longshot pick for today is a no-brainer!

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Of course, longshots aren’t the only way to find extreme value with huge potential payouts. We’ve also gone beyond just our top three MLB home run picks with today’s for-fun parlay action…

You could also just pair our first three names into their own parlay and double down for a potentially monster Thursday. Again, make this small slate as valuable as possible and get prepared for a huge weekend ahead with our best MLB home run picks for today!