The start of the 2026 MLB Wild Card Round featured some top arms like Chris Sale and Cam Schlittler, and as the series go on, we should expect more MLB home run picks to cash (we hit with the FREE newsletter bonus pick of Fernando Tatis, Jr. last night)! It’s far from a certainty that we should expect more, but the deeper into rotations that teams go, in theory, the weaker the pitchers will be. We’re still only at Game 2s, but we’re still here to capitalize on the postseason action! Let’s add to more all-day action with our best MLB home run predictions for today.

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⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

While we may not have the first options in rotations on the mound, there are still big names like Cristopher Sanchez and Max Fried toeing the rubber. So, if you want more than just MLB home run picks, check out our MLB expert picks! Even though we find value for homers, there is just as much value for K props, game markets, and more. That said, for even more MLB home run predictions for today’s Wild Card games, utilize our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 9/30: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

The playoffs keep things consistent in terms of the matchups (for a little while), and what also stays consistent are the factors that impact MLB home run picks. That starts with our MLB weather report, especially since we have early action in warm, humid Atlanta and late action in cooler San Diego.

As we’ve been reiterating, we do still have strong starters on the mound, but we’ll still dive into things to see which are the best to attack in terms of the power they allow (ISO) to each side of the plate, hard-hit rates, and more. Hitters have many of the same factors plus barrel rates, launch angles, and more.

Bullpens also become more and more of a factor as the postseason progresses, so those units are also a must when it comes to locking in the best MLB home run picks for today.

Kyle Schwarber (+280)

We led off with Yordan Alvarez yesterday, which was as prominent a name as we could have possibly targeted. Perhaps the only one that could have been chalkier is this one, but now’s the time to go with him. After having to deal with Chris Sale yesterday, the league-leader (tied) for cashing MLB home run picks gets a better matchup.

That would be Atlanta Braves starter Tyler Mahle. By no means is he the worst starter in the league, but he’s one that scares us far less than Sale. His .170 ISO allowed to lefties also isn’t record-breaking, but it’s higher than his power allowed to righties, and we know that Schwarber can generate power against anyone.

Against right-handed pitching, it’s an incredible .279 ISO, so let’s enjoy the hot, humid Atlanta afternoon with our best MLB home run picks and see Kyle Schwarber hitting a HR (+280 at BetMGM). 

Seiya Suzuki (+500)

Frankly, adding Yordan Alvarez to your card here is a very strong play. That series is still one that we like for homers, but we’re actually going to double-dip in San Diego tonight. After all, it’s where we had last night’s winner, so let’s buck the trend at Petco Park once again. We’ll start with the road team cashing MLB home run picks.

They may be the more difficult ones to support here given last night’s performance, but that can change in a hurry against Nick Pivetta. He’s only been back for four starts after five months on the IL, and even during his prime, we’ve seen him have a HR problem. For tonight’s HR problem, we’re swapping to a righty vs. righty crime rather than PCA.

This also means getting more value with our top MLB home run picks today, so let’s lock in Seiya Suzuki hitting a HR (+500 at bet365). 

Jackson Merrill (+495)

As for our other target in the Cubs vs. Padres series, it’s one where you could pivot back to Fernando Tatis, Jr. going back-to-back. That’s because Chicago is starting Kevin Gausman. As a splitter-pitcher, he has reverse splits, which means that he actually allows more MLB home run picks to cash to fellow righties rather than lefties.

That said, he’s not immune to allowing them to either side of the plate, and let’s be honest, the Cubs bullpen is NOT why they were able to make the postseason. We also love seeing this lefty when he gets to face a righty, as he has a .196 ISO against them with a .237 expected ISO. We’re expecting him to start cashing some MLB home run picks, so let’s round things out with Jackson Merrill hitting a HR (+495 at DraftKings). 

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Having to navigate some strong starters with our MLB home run picks already provides some great potential payouts, but there are plenty of higher ones out there as well. That includes our top longshot spot for today…

It’s back to the White Sox vs. Astros matchup in this spot, and there are a few Chicago hitters that have some extremely valuable odds. Houston starter Hunter Brown has been VERY up-and-down since his return from injury, even if he is a well-known starter. So, let’s ride the Chicago southpaw with our best MLB home run longshot pick for today! 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Hitting our FREE newsletter bonus pick last night was awesome, but how about a bigger hit? In fact, our winner from last night’s MLB home run picks is involved in our top trio…

You likely could have seen those guys coming, even with Yordan not being a direct pivot from the Schwarber pick. Either way, this is the stack we’re liking for tonight. Let’s continue cashing MLB home run picks during these playoffs!