While most fantasy owners targeted Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the fourth round in early fantasy drafts, those who speculated on Eloy Jiménez could laugh last. Jimenez agreed to a contract which will allow him to break camp with the White Sox. This translates to upside since he will accrue major league at-bats on Opening Day. He appeared in 53 games at Double-A last year and in 55 games in Triple-A. Jimenez cut his strikeout rate upon his promotion to 13.2 percent compared to 17.1 at Double-A.

As a primer, here’s how Jimenez did at each level last year with the caveat he missed in April and July to injury:

  • Double-A: 53 games, 205 at-bats, 36 runs, 10 home runs, 42 RBI; .317/.368/.556
  • Triple-A: 55 games, 211 at-bats, 28 runs, 12 home runs, 33 RBI; .355/.399/.597
  • Combined: 108 games, 416 at-bats, 64 runs, 22 home runs, 75 RBI; .337/.384/.577

Within his batted ball data from last year, Jimenez produced a 23.6-line drive rate, 41 ground ball percentage, 35.4 fly ball percentage, 19 home run per fly ball rate and pulled the ball just over 46 percent of the time. Courtesy of Prospects Live, and specifically @MinorGraphs, here’s a chart highlighting each fly ball generated by Jimenez over the last three years in the minors:

It’s easy to see Jimenez owns upside in the power department and although he tends to pull the ball, he can hit the ball for power to center and to the opposite field. This will be important during his development in the majors, especially using the whole field.

Currently projected to hit sixth for the White Sox, the cumulative hitters in the spot last year slashed .264/.312/.457 with 79 runs, 80 RBI, a 25.1 strikeout percentage and 6.8 walk rate over 608 at-bats. Given Jimenez track record in the minors, he should strikeout less than his peers from last year and given 550 at-bats, this would put him on pace for 71 runs and 72 RBI given a near repeat from last year. Here’s how three different modules see the upcoming season for Jimenez:

It’s almost a perfect three layers of outcomes. ZiPS foresees the most power, which aligns with his paces from last year in the minors. THE BAT accounts for some adjustments moving up the food chain to the majors, but not without counting statistics which will benefit fantasy owners. Personally, predicting Jimenez hits 27 home runs with a .280 average and 80 RBI. Anything more will be gravy, but could be possible. Those drafting late can take a chance on the rookie and given his arrival time, he’s atop the list of candidates for the American League Rookie of the Year honors.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

ProspectsLive.com

MiLB.com

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski