No longer hidden in fantasy circles, Franmil Reyes finished last year on a high note. After his second promotion on August fourth, Reyes slashed a robust .318/.385/.548 with 22 runs, six doubles, 10 home runs and 24 RBI in 157 at-bats. He also hit safely in 20 of his last 25 games for the Padres. However, San Diego’s outfield enters 2019 crowded with Wil Myers moving back to the position along with Hunter Renfroe , Manuel Margot and Franchy Cordero . It’s a spoil of riches, however, it could make at-bats for Reyes tough to accrue without an injury or collapse by one his teammates.

On the season, Reyes did finish with a respectable .280/.340/.498 line which shrouds his tepid first 104 at-bats during which he only hit .221 with a .693 on-base plus slugging percentage. Within this time frame, Reyes recorded 42 strikeouts against only seven walks. After being sent back to Triple-A, Reyes rebooted his plate discipline walking 14.8 percent of the time at the level with a 23.6 strikeout percentage. Hope lies in Reyes carrying over his 9.7-and-9.7 walk rates in August and September respectively.

Reyes also cut down on his strikeout percentage his last two months of 2018 finishing with percentage of 23.6 in August and 20.6 in September. In both May and June, his strikeout rates reached or exceeded 40 percent. Overall, Reyes appeared in 87 games last season with 36 runs, 16 home runs, 31 RBI and a .280/.340/.498 line. At Triple-A, he scored 50 runs with 16 home runs, 52 RBI and a .324/.428/.614 slash line. Armed with a long swing, it remains to be seen if Reyes lies somewhere between his debut last year and his hot finish to it.

Breaking down the two samples, it almost looks like two different players:

In order to establish a baseline for 2019, xSTATS assessed Reyes with 12.7 expected home runs along with a .268/.330/.465 expected slash. His expected BABIP of .346 seems high and he also recorded a .344 expected on-base average. When looking at Statcast, here’s where the helium arises. Reyes owned a 96.4 MPH average exit velocity on his fly balls and line drives. Very enticing, but, he only generated a 33.3 fly ball percentage in August and 23.9 fly ball rate in September last year. In fact, he’s yet to finish with a fly ball percentage above 40 percent at any level since his debut season in Rookie Ball back in 2012.

Reyes produced ground balls at a 45.8 percent rate in August and 53.5 percent in September during his hot streak. This quells some of his potential home run upside. Make no mistake, when Reyes does get lift on a baseball, he does damage. It’s a matter of marrying his ground ball lean to his swing, which can get long.

In terms of his batted ball data compared to league average, Reyes rates very well. His hard hit percentage of 44.2 percent sits almost nine points above the league, his home run per fly ball rate of 29.6 percent more than doubles the league (12.7 percent) but his fly ball percentage of 29.8 percent resides below the league (35.4 percent). If a player records more ground balls, it can inflate his home run per fly ball percentage as a result. Numbers can reveal a weakness, but Reyes does own the ability to hit fly balls and line drives with great exit velocities, it’s just a matter of how many will he produce.

Digesting all of this, here’s a look at his projections for this year:

They seem to agree Reyes will struggle to replicate last year’s slash line over a full season. His projections also suggest there are 25 home runs lurking with enough at-bats. Which brings this back to the beginning, how many will Reyes get in a crowded Padres outfield? There’s a chance Wil Myers could get hurt, he does not stay healthy playing the outfield, or Manuel Margot does not rebound. But, Reyes could be the worst outfielder of the group. This remains a factor in trying to determine how much he will play.

Franmil Reyes remains a work in progress, but with power upside coming off of a season when home run numbers regressed. This makes him a worthy upside target in drafts, but with the caveat he could hit for a lower average and needs to find at-bats in a crowded outfield. Bake these concerns into his draft day price and invest with reasonable expectations. Seeing the FANS projection of 32 home runs in 141 games with a .284 average suggests someone else will pay full retail on him in a draft based on Reyes’ strong finish. Recency bias can be a heck of a drug.

Use the projections above along with the expected numbers to set a reasonable projection set. If an injury or trade occurs by the Padres, then Reyes stock will rise. Until then, hope he carries over his plate discipline and he improves upon his launch angle going forward.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.com

MLB.com

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

Depth Charts courtesy of Roster Resource

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski

MiLB.com