Watching Luis Severino navigate a strong Red Sox lineup along with hitting 99.5 MPH on the radar gun his last pitch in the seventh inning harkens how to value him for in the upcoming 2019 fantasy season. Presently, Severino leads the majors in wins with 13, ranks second overall in ERA (1.98) but leads the American League, he’s sixth in WHIP (0.95) and seventh in strikeouts with 138 in 118.1 innings prior to his 25th birthday next February. His next win will match last year’s total. Severino’s commanding his fastball while throwing his slider for strikes and out of the zone for swinging strikes.
Sometimes it takes the fantasy community a bit longer to be proactive when targeting pitchers, but who would you take over Luis Severino in a draft for next season? Jacob deGrom if he’s traded? Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw will be a year older, there’s still lingering concerns regarding Corey Kluber ’s back. With the second half looming, more answers will emerge to these questions but it’s time to accept Severino’s not only the Yankees ace, but one in fantasy as well.
That Just Happened
In an effort not to overlap the tremendous Closing Bell Justin Vreeland did on Sunday night, here’s a look at the trends from Sunday for the fantasy week ahead avoiding his highlights on the recent power surge by Nick Castellanos (swoon) and hot hitters from June carrying over into July.
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Opposing Severino last night was David Price . Of fortnite fame missing his last start versus the Yankees due to a sore forearm, Price did not fare well under the spotlight in the Bronx giving up five home runs, of his nine hits allowed, in 3.1 innings resulting in eight earned runs with no walks and three strikeouts. Against the rest of the majors, Price owns a 3.31 ERA with nine home runs in 92.1 innings. Versus the Yankees, a 24.92 ERA with the numbers above.
Aaron Hicks launched three home runs on Sunday night, the first three home run game since Alex Rodriguez on July 25th, 2015. Of course, Rodriguez witnessed it first hand at the stadium as an announcer, but it’s time to take notice of Hicks. Through 64 games, he’s scored 39 runs with 14 home runs, 38 RBI, six stolen bases and a .258/.346/.502 slash line. With the Yankees reaching the midpoint of their season, it’s easy to extrapolate the numbers by doubling them. However, if Hicks continues his power surge evidenced by his .245 isolated power and 43 hard hit percentage, he could finish the year with 30 home runs and double digits in steals. Last year, 11 players accomplished this feat with some interesting buy low candidates among them. Segue.
It’s tough to imagine Charlie Blackmon mired in a slump, but here we are. Since June sixth, Blackmon’s hitting a paltry .216/.269/.309 and received a mental day off on Sunday. When speaking to reporters, Blackmon insists he’s close to turning around his season. He could be correct since his BABIP sits 30 almost points below his career average, his hard hit rate has collapsed while it’s almost universally up around the league and Blackmon did register a 27.4 line drive percentage in June. Slumps happen, even to the best of players and a simple tweak to his launch angle could produce more home runs than line drives in the second half. Feeling lucky? If so, kick the tires with the frustrated Blackmon owner in your league. Remember he hit 37 home runs with 14 steals last year.
With the All-Star break approaching, it’s time to target Brian Dozier , right? Currently, Dozier’s hitting a measly .221/.311/.397 with 12 home runs and 33 RBI in 79 games. But, in 2016 and 2017, he’s hit a combined 45 home runs with a .987 on-base plus slugging percentage in the second half. Could another strong second half be in the offing? His career numbers indicate it’s probable so teams looking for an enema can take a flier on a repeat for Dozier, just do not pay full retail for the struggling second baseman. Dozier’s another member of the 11 player club above hitting 34 home runs with 16 stolen bases in 2017. He homered on Sunday among his two hits with three runs and two RBI.
Targeting Wil Myers felt so right in the preseason, until he transitioned back into the outfield which led to an inevitable injury. Myers returned to the Padres and could be primed for a nice second half. He hit 30 home runs with 20 stolen bases last year which he will not match. But, he’s recorded a hit in three straight games with five runs, two doubles, a homer, five RBI and a steal during his first 10 games off the disabled list. Steamer projects Myers to play 66 more games with 36 runs, 12 home runs, 34 RBI and eight steals. Of course, Steamer does not predict injuries. Keep your fingers crossed.
Two second basemen continue to make waves in fantasy and could have been teammates. Javier Báez racked up three more hits on Sunday with two doubles, two runs and two RBI. He’s the third Cub to reach at least 15 doubles, five triples and 15 home runs prior to the All-Star break joining Ernie Banks (1958) and Billy Williams (1962). Baez has hit 17 doubles, five triples and 16 home runs in 80 games with a .290 average which many feel should drop but Baez keeps on hitting. The other? Just Gleyber Torres who became the first player to hit 15 home runs in his first 60 games at Age-21 or younger last night. Although Torres did not display this type of power through the minors, it’s difficult to argue with his .164 isolated power so far but his 25.5 strikeout percentage hints an adjustment in average could ensue, but it’s been fun to watch.
Matt Harvey won his third straight start, for the first time since 2015. He’s recorded a 1.47 ERA, 2.40 FIP and 0.82 WHIP in these outings with 14 strikeouts against two walks. Since joining the Reds, Harvey’s seen an increase in his pitch velocity. Can one safely buy in to him going forward? Remains to be seen but if he’s on waivers, it could be worth a shot.
While Blackmon’s been struggling, Gerardo Parra ’s been hot of late hitting .339 since April 22nd and .392 his last 23 games. Parra tied for fourth in the National League in RBI with 22 in June and has hit for a higher average away from Coors, .319/.372/.451, compared to his home split of a .283/.298/.384 slash line. Could it be we were a year too early on Parra?
Edwin Díaz added to his team record with his 32nd save striking out the side on Sunday. Seattle’s 22-0 in one-run games when Diaz pitches and he’s 20-for-22 in one run save conversions with a 0.81 ERA and 40 strikeouts in 22.1 innings. He’s also whiffed 42.3 percent of hitters this year with 71 strikeouts in 44 innings.
Other hot closers include: Kenley Jansen who converted his 20th straight save in a clean ninth with two strikeouts. Felipe Vázquez notched his seventh straight save and has been scoreless his last 7.2 innings with 14 strikeouts against zero walks.
It could be time to worry about Adam Ottavino . He’s allowed runs in three of his last four outings giving up five earned his last 5.2 innings. Of more concern, Ottavino’s walked five during these games with reduced velocity and a lower vertical release point. An injury could be lurking. Tread lightly.
What To Watch For
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St. Louis announced Jose Martinez will see more time in right field as opposed to first base. Martinez currently has a negative six rating in fielding above league average at first and a matching negative six in defensive runs saved. But, he’s hitting .299/.367/.496 with 13 home runs in 76 games. If there’s a cover boy for the designated hitter in the National League, it’s Martinez.
Which Brewer outfielder would you rather have the rest of the season, Domingo Santana or Keon Broxton ? By the way, Lorenzo Cain hopes to be activated on Wednesday so this may be moot, but it’s worth consideration since the Brewers could move one of the Santana or Broxton in a trade.
Pittsburgh will be starting Nick Kingham in Los Angeles tonight. Kingham started hot then struggled but owns a 3.37 FIP with 35 strikeouts in 35.1 innings so far. He’s an intriguing dart throw going forward.
After going toe-to-toe with Max Scherzer at home for a win with nine strikeouts, Nate Eovaldi will make two starts in Miami and at the Mets this week. If he’s still on the wire in your league, he’s a worthy add for these games.
Over the last 14 days, Mark Trumbo ’s hit six home runs, second to only Nolan Arenado ’s eight in this time frame, with a .391 isolated power and .652 slugging percentage.
Trade winds continue to swirl around Raisel Iglesias and the Reds roster. It’s interesting to see how they handle it, but Iglesias has a 3.21 ERA and 1.36 WHIP his last 13 games off of the disabled list, could they be selling high? Stay tuned.
Although yesterday was Canada Day by date, it’s observed today. So be sure to set rosters by 1:07 when Toronto will host the Tigers this afternoon. There’s a half season left with the trade deadline rumors heating up. Stay ahead of your competition by sticking with Fantasy Alarm.