While he may not be the sexiest pick in the bunch, there is safety in security and stability, and Arizona right-hander Zack Greinke provides just that. He’s logged 200 or more innings in four out of the past five years, and he’s won at least 15 games in all but two seasons (2010, 2016) in this decade. From 2014-2016, the strikeouts were teetering, declining after each season, but in his second and third season in the desert, he’s back closer to one batter per inning, including 9.56 K/9 in 2017. Last season, that mark fell to 8.62, but still solid for a multitude of reasons. He fell one strikeout shy of 200 last season and, while the strikeout numbers aren’t off-the-charts good, his volume of work allows him to continuously add to that category.

The big concern with Greinke is just how much longer he can be effective with a fastball that is declining by the year, and rather noticeably in recent seasons. The veteran right-hander has been a workhorse throughout his career, and for as good of a career as he’s had, the diminished velocity on his fastball will eventually catch up to him. At 35-years-old, this just might be the season. Take a look at his fastball velocity over recent seasons.

Yikes. That’s a rather steep decline. With the fastball losing steam as its making its way to the plate, the opposition have seen their average exit velocity go up against that pitch, and while the hard hit percentage declined a bit in 2018, it had increased the previous two seasons.

In 2015, opponents hit .202 off Greinke’s fastball. In the past three seasons, however, that mark has been north of .285 each season. While the fantasy community as a whole shouldn’t bank on a rebound of effectiveness with Greinke’s fastball, there is optimism that his secondary stuff can prove to be lethal. Last season, his changeup and curveball exceeded 10.0 in the wCH and wCB metrics respectively over at Fangraphs. His 10.6 wCB was fifth-best in the league, while his wCH was third-best, trailing only Kyle Hendricks and Jacob deGrom . For what it’s worth, Greinke is one of just six players in the league to have at least two pitches with weighted metrics above 10.0. The others are deGrom, Max Scherzer , Blake Snell , Aaron Nola , and Corey Kluber .

Since the start of the 2016 season, the opponents are hitting .293 against his fastball, but the success against the other pitches has been minimal. In that span, against his changeup, slider and curveball, opponents are hitting .202, .205 and .186 respectively. Additionally, the whiff rates on each of these three secondary pitches over the last three seasons has been at least 13-percent, with the slider generating a 22.5-percent whiff rate.

It’s not necessarily all about the fastball for Greinke this season, but assuming that it stays at the same speed of last year, or even declines again, it will come down to his secondary stuff in 2019. He used his fastball more in 2018 than recent seasons, but we’ll see how long that trend continues, as perhaps his pitching profile changes, and he embraces throwing his secondary stuff closer to 60 percent of the time. As long as these pitches, notably the changeup and curveball, remain effective, Greinke will be a reliable SP2.

As mentioned earlier, Greinke isn’t going to be the sexiest SP2 you can get, with a lot of the allure going to be more upside arms like José Berríos , Jack Flaherty and Jameson Taillon . However, stability is key, and Greinke will continue to put up consistent numbers despite the declining juice on his heater. He boasts a full repertoire that keeps the opposition off balance and he doesn’t hurt himself with unnecessary walks. The movement and effectiveness of his secondary pitches provides reason to believe that last year’s 23.7-percent strikeout rate is sustainable this season, but banking in a slight decline in that category might be the safe play.

Despite lacking the upside of other starters and a potent offense backing him, Greinke is a proven 200+ inning workhorse and ratio stabilizer.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
brooksbaseball.net
baseballsavant.mlb.com