At just 24 years young last season, Kyle Freeland enjoyed an excellent campaign in one of the more unlikely scenarios. Not only is his home park a hitter’s haven, but he managed to win 17 games last year as a member of the Colorado Rockies, but 10 of those wins came at Coors Field. WHAT!? In fact, he was much better at home than on the road. For more reasons than one, Freeland was exceptional last season and his career trajectory is pointing upwards, however, there are some concerns for some regression in 2019.

In his 24-year-old season, Freeland was one of 13 starters in the majors to throw at least 200 innings last season. Of those 13 starters to eclipse the 200-inning threshold, Freeland’s 2.85 ERA was sixth-best and he managed to post a better HR/9 (0.76) than Cleveland’s Corey Kluber (1.05), Washington’s Max Scherzer (0.94) and Houston’s Gerrit Cole (0.85).

For starters, Freeland can eclipse 200 innings yet again in 2019, and at his current ADP, that could be room for fantasy value in and of itself. Since being drafted in 2014, Freeland has served just one stint on the disabled list, and that was for a groin strain back in August of 2017, but he served the minimum amount of time. Furthermore, he has a pretty effortless motion that can deceive the hitter without putting extra strain on his arm, shoulder, etc. While the southpaw may not have the curveball of Clayton Kershaw or the changeup of a Stephen Strasburg , his pitches have enough movement to generate weak contact and swings-and-misses. In fact, he made great strides in terms of generating swings-and-misses last season.

PITCH

2017 SwMs%

2018 SwMs%

Four-Seam Fastball

6.65%

5.64%

Two-Seam Fastball

4.63%

7.35%

Slider

10.92%

13.74%

Changeup

9.72%

10.95%

Curveball

9.46%

7.65%

The noticeable jumps on his two-seam fastball, slider and changeup in particular helped his overall SwStr% jumped from 7.5 percent in 2017 to 9.0 percent in 2018. Furthermore, his K/9 jumped nearly a batter and a half, and while he likely won’t ever be a strikeout per inning guy over the course of an entire season, he did strikeout 81 batters over his final 86.2 innings of the season. Continuing his deception on the mound and maintaining the whiff rate from last season could signal another jump in whiff rate in 2019, leading to an increased K/9 yet again this season.

However, at just 25-years-old, Freeland has yet to enter the prime of his career, but he is a likely regression candidate in 2019, at least in terms of WHIP and ERA. He’ll still be better than his 2017 numbers, but expecting a repeat performance from last season (2.85 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) might be a bit far-fetched. Additionally, despite posting that 2.85 ERA, his 3.67 FIP, 4.22 xFIP and 4.35 SIERA signify that maybe Freeland’s skills and metrics aren’t indicative of a sub-3.00 ERA arm.

Despite generating fewer ground balls and allowing more fly balls, his HR/FB ratio actually dropped four percent from his 2017 mark. When a pitcher’s fly ball rate increases, but the HR/9 and HR/FB ratio drop substantially, it’s something to note. If that evens out, a few more balls likely fly out of the park, increasing Freeland’s ERA a bit. Interestingly enough, however, there’s more concern away from Coors with Freeland in terms of HR/FB regression. See for yourself:

HOME

 

AWAY

YEAR

FB%

HR/FB%

 

YEAR

FB%

HR/FB%

2017

25.5%

10.3%

 

2017

30.2%

14.7%

2018

33.7%

12.6%

 

2018

35.2%

5.3%

Given the Jetstream in the Colorado air, it’s no surprise that the HR/FB ratio at home jumped a bit, but despite allowing more fly balls on the road, that HR/FB mark dropped over nine percentage points last season! Sure, there are some pitcher-friendly parks in his division, but that low of a HR/FB ratio screams regression in 2019.

Steamer is on board with the regression in 2019 for the Colorado southpaw, to the tune of a 4.62 ERA and 1.19 HR/9 across 195 innings. While I don’t quite think the ERA gets that extreme, Freeland should win double-digit games for the third-straight season, but that ERA will be in the 3.90-4.00 range this season. He will be valuable in terms of eating up innings for fantasy owners, but drafting Freeland with comparable metrics from 2018 is a recipe for disaster heading into 2019.

Freeland is a candidate for significant regression in 2019, as his increased fly ball rates and advanced metrics don’t lend itself to another sub-3.00 ERA campaign.

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Statistical Credits

Fangraphs.com, BrooksBaseball.net, thebaseballcube.com, baseballsavant.mlb.com