2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Tyler Glasnow

Once a heralded prospect in the Pittsburgh Pirates organization, Tyler Glasnow was shipped to Tampa, along with Austin Meadows , in a deal that netted Pittsburgh right-hander Chris Archer . The change of scenery was needed for Glasnow as his career wasn’t appearing to pan out as hoped in the Steel City. The expectation was that he could be the headliner of the team’s rotation for the foreseeable future, but by the end of his time in Pittsburgh, he was serving as a reliever. Despite being the first overall pick in the fifth round by the Pirates back in 2011, no one would argue that from a statistical standpoint, the move to the southeast greatly benefitted the 6-foot-8-inch righty.

Before delving deeper into things, we’ll scratch the surface by quickly looking at his numbers in 2018, both as a member of the Pirates and his current Tampa squad.

The big knock on Glasnow, and perhaps the biggest inhibitor to becoming a dominate ace, was the fact that he was erratic on the mound, routinely dealing with command issues. In 2017, his BB/9 was a putrid 6.39, but when he joined the Rays, that mark dropped to an acceptable 3.07 BB/9. Sure, fantasy owners lost a few strikeouts, but 10.35 strikeouts per nine innings are still exceptional and comparable to the likes of Carlos Carrasco (10.83) and Luis Severino (10.35) from last season. Also, for what it is worth, his ERA as a member of the Rays was inflated from a brutal shellacking by the Blue Jays in early September (7 ER in 0.2 IP).

His pitch usage didn’t change too much, but honing his slider would be really nice to his arsenal that is dominated by a hard fastball and devastatingly wicked curveball. Glasnow has always been electric on the mound, and in 2018, he pleased the Statcast darlings with a few of his metrics.

As a starter with the Rays, he posted an ugly 1-5 record across 11 starts, but as you know from prior editions of the draft guide, don’t look too much into a pitcher’s win-loss record. It’s not indicative of a pitcher’s effectiveness on the mound that season. Sure, Ryan Yarbrough won 16 games for the Rays last season, but his ERA was nearly 4.00! He won more games than the National League Cy Young Winner Jacob deGrom .

With the Rays likely to utilize the “opener” strategy in 2019, Glasnow could be the ideal candidate to come in after some other reliever starts the contest. In fact, Glasnow’s fantasy value could be at its highest in this role. Like many starters, he tends to lose some effectiveness as he gets deeper into ball games. See for yourself:

Primarily as a reliever in his final appearances with the Pirates, he was more effective, as he experienced limited opportunities facing the opposition for a third time. The Rays didn’t utilize Glasnow in their “opener” scheme last season, but simply put, he could be utterly dominant in this scheme. Giving him four or five innings out of the pen, starting in the second or third inning wouldn’t be farfetched, or something to which he isn’t accustomed. In 11 starts with the Rays last season, Glasnow pitched more than five innings in just six of his 11 starts. His command issues oftentimes leads to inflated pitch counts, but he was able to harness his walk rate with his new club last season.

Yarbrough threw 147.1 innings last season in this role, making six starts in the process, and that sort of workload seems reasonable for Glasnow in 2019. However, don’t discount him too much on that, because at his current ADP, he could rack up quite a few wins and a repeat of his 10.35 K/9 would come out to a strikeout total in the low 170s. Pretty good, eh?

Steamer projects Glasnow to be working primarily out of a starter’s role, and while he will get a few traditional starts throughout the season, fantasy owners should be open to the fact of him being the long reliever in this “opener” strategy. In fact, for his career, his ERA as a starter (5.95) is much higher than when he operates out of a relief role (4.24).

At his current ADP, Glasnow has plenty of appeal, and he can be a valuable member in improving your team’s counting stats and ratios, especially if he continues to strikeout more than a batter per inning, harnesses his control and keeps that WHIP closer to 1.10 than 1.30.

Is there some risk with Glasnow? Absolutely there is, especially his command returns to his Pittsburgh days and he’s walking closer to four or five guys per nine innings. However…

In the Rays’ revolutionary pitching strategy, Glasnow has a ceiling of 10+ wins with 155+ strikeouts in 130-135 innings of work.

Statistical Credits
Fangraphs.com
BrooksBaseball.net
thebaseballcube.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com