Unlike the other major sports, the MLB Amateur draft happens mid-season every June and this year it runs from June 3-5. All told there are 40 rounds to the major league draft with a few compensatory rounds in between the first five to make up for free agents that were lost by a team in the previous year. This week we will do a draft preview of sorts and cover some of the top names that will likely be at the top of the draft and go over the draft order. If you are interested in more draft coverage, yours truly will have the pick-by-pick analysis of the first 41 picks (all the picks before the second round starts) on Monday night.
Draft Order
Draft Prospects
Adley Rutschman, C Oregon State – Rutschman has been the consensus top pick for this year’s draft since the gavel dropped to start last year’s draft and why shouldn’t he be? The only tool that doesn’t grade as a plus skill is his speed, but even for a catcher his 40-grade speed is better than most, giving him four 60-grade tools plus he’s a switch-hitter too. At 6’2” and 216 lbs. he has a great frame to remain behind the plate and the big frame allows him to be a better blocker of balls as there is simply more of him to use to stop the balls with. He is a great receiver and has a surprisingly quick pop time that combined with his plus-arm strength allows him to throw out would-be base stealers at a good clip. Offensively, his bat has improved every year at Oregon State going from a .234/.322/.306 line as a freshman to a .419/.580/.765 line as a junior in 2019 with 57 RBI, 56 runs, and 17 home runs in 55 games this year. His plate discipline is what’s remarkable as he has 153 walks in 183 games in his college career while striking out 116 times. As an overall package, Rutschman has more total tools than any catching prospect in the minors currently and if he doesn’t go first overall, he won’t fall past second.
Bobby Witt Jr., SS Coleyville Heritage HS – The only other prospect sneaking up the prospect board into the top overall pick conversation is Witt. He is a rare five-tool, projectable, shortstop coming out of the high school ranks of Texas who also has an MLB pedigree with a father, Bobby Witt, who played 16 years in the majors. Clearly, high school stats can’t be taken too seriously but they do show his talent as he put up a .506/.569/1.054 slash line in his 51-game career with 17 home runs, 19 doubles, 10 triples, 81 runs, 70 RBI, and 24 steals. The raw skills are there for him to a be a feature 20-20 shortstop at the highest level while playing a stellar brand of defense at the most important defensive position. His quick hands and speed give him great range and the fact that he can pump in mid-90s fastballs on the pitching rubber indicates he has a very strong arm. At 6’0” and 180 lbs. he has the frame to stick at short but, can also move elsewhere given his athletic ability. Witt has committed to Oklahoma already but given his draft stock and the likely slot value of the pick, it’s expected he will turn pro.
Andrew Vaughn, 1B Cal – Vaughn is another rare prospect in that he’s a right-handed fielding, right-handed hitting first baseman who also happens to be a bit undersized at 6’0” and 214 pounds. That would be a problem and ordinarily would drop his draft stock a bit, but it’s his bat that keeps him this high as he could very well be the best bat in the entire draft class, college or prep. In the last two seasons at Cal, Vaughn has played 104 games, had 372 at-bats, slashed .395/.540/.777 with 38 homers, 112 RBI, 108 runs, and five steals in that span. That line explains the 60-grade Hit and Power tools he possesses but it belies the 30-grade Speed tool he has. The defense is solid enough to not be a hindrance at first base as he moves forward but it’s clearly the bat that will carry his profile going from level to level. Vaughn is a college bat that will move quickly once drafted given his 102 BB to 50 Ks in the last two years at college showing his advanced approach at the plate.
C.J. Abrams, SS Blessed Trinity HS – If there is a prospect at the top of the first round that has a definitive tool that just jumps off the page, it’s Abrams and his speed. At a 75-grade tool, it’s about as close to the top of the chart as you get and puts him in a league all his own in that tool. He comes out of the Georgia prep ranks and a school that has produced major leaguers before. Abrams played 142 games of high school ball over four years with a .418/.482/.606 slash line with eight home runs, 158 runs, 100 RBI, and 100 steals. The 18-year-old shortstop has a quick stroke from the left side of the plate which helps with his ability to get down the line even faster and don’t be surprised if drag bunting becomes a big part of his game at points. That being said though, he does have the strength and pop in his stroke to develop into a 10-15 home run hitter along with 30-plus steals. Defensively he more than likely moves to second or center field rather than staying at short since his fielding actions are a bit blocky and aren’t that fluid.
J.J. Bleday, OF Vanderbilt – Bleday has been on the radar for a while know as he became an immediate starter at Vanderbilt, you know the college baseball powerhouse that routinely turns out multiple picks a year. In 2018 he became the Commodores best hitter as a sophomore and then won the best prospect honors in the Cape Cod League last summer. In 2019 he paced D-I baseball in home runs with 25 in the regular season while playing a very good defensive right field and showcasing his plus Arm tool. Bleday has started to tap into the big-time power within his 6’3”, 205 lbs. frame and in the Cape Cod League showed he can hit well with a wood bat which only boosts his projectability in scout’s eyes. The left-handed hitting outfielder is the second-best college bat in the draft and the top position player outside of Rutschman likely making it a short wait on Monday night for the Vandy Junior.
Riley Greene, OF Hagerty HS – Greene is another high school kid out of Florida who is described as a pure hitter after his high school days and his showcase circuit showings. Greene also played on the Under-18 Team USA Pan-American Games team that won Gold and he led that squad in RBI. In the 235 high school at-bats Greene had, he slashed .391/.538/.740 with 13 home runs, 94 runs, 61 RBI, and 30 steals. While he might be a pure hitter and a high school bat with some projectability left in the power side of his game, the defense needs work as he is a slightly below average runner and has a fringy arm. If there is no improvement in the defense, a left field spot is likely awaiting him in the majors where his bat is a perfect fit if the power develops as the swing plane and raw bat speed indicate it should.
Nick Lodolo, LHP TCU – Lodolo was drafted back in 2016 as the 41st overall pick of the Pirates but turned them down to go to Texas Christian instead and after three years, he may just have improved his draft stock into the top-10. The southpaw sits 90-94 with his fastball and touches 96 while using his tall, lanky, frame to get a steep downhill plane on the pitch. Lodolo backups the fastball with a tight slider and a nice late-fading changeup. All of the pitches grade as above average offerings and have each improved since his freshman and sophomore campaigns when he was mostly a dependable starter rather than dominant. In 2019, over 15 starts and 98 innings, Lodolo posted a 2.48 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, .202 BAA, and 125:21 K:BB ratio. He is not the typical ace-caliber pitcher that fits in the top of the first round but as the best pitcher in the draft, he will be taken this high and still projects as a number two starter.
Alek Manoah, RHP WVU – The first thing that will stick out about Manoah, when watching the clip, is his size. Manoah is 6’6” or 6’7” depending on where you look and 260 pounds. The other thing that stands out are his stats from his Junior year at West Virginia during which he pitched 102.1 innings over 15 starts posting a 1.85 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, .186 BAA, and 135:23 K:BB ratio. The big right-hander leads his arsenal with a 94-97 mph sinking fastball, a plus slider, and a solid changeup. There aren’t many innings on his arm despite him being a college starter for three years meaning he has projectability left and development in his pitches while already showing number two starter stuff with the possibility of being an ace if he adds a fourth pitch.
Recent MLB Call-ups
Mitch Keller, RHP PIT – Keller, who I mentioned in the past few weeks, was called up for his debut on Monday in the second game of the doubleheader as the 26th-man on the roster. The debut went decent after the first innings as he showed moxy to fight through the rest of his start without top quality stuff. With Jordan Lyles hitting the IL there is a chance that Keller could be called back up after sending him to Triple-A following his start Monday. He is the top pitcher for the Pirates and has ace-caliber stuff, he just needs more fine-tuning in the upper minors before being really ready.
Génesis Cabrera , LHP STL – The Cardinals made a pitching move earlier this week in calling up Cabrera from Triple-A Memphis to start against Philadelphia. There was some banter earlier this year that he could fill a fifth starter role for the Cardinals and now it looks as though he will get his chance after two quality starts against the Triple-A affiliates for the Brewers and Rangers. The lefty has a big fastball that sits mid-90s but routinely touches 98 with run. His slider is his best secondary pitch as it sits upper-80s with tight break that at times looks like a cutter with late break. The changeup is an average pitch that works well as a swing-and-miss pitch against right-handers while the Curve is a get me over curveball that is below-average right now. His biggest issue is his violent delivery that isn’t repeatable from a release point perspective and has led to troubles with control as his career 3.7 BB/9 rate shows. Cabrera does have the ability to strike out at least one an inning but if the walks don’t drop expect him to move to the pen where his fastball and slider combo can play up in short bursts from the left side of the pitching rubber.
DJ Stewart , OF BAL – Stewart was kind of an unexpected call-up by the O’s since their outfield has been pretty solid this season and they just made the acquisition to get Keon Broxton last week. He has shown that he can hit though and that’s always a valuable tool to a major league team. At 25 years old, he’s a bit older than your typical call-up though. In the last 159 games at Triple-A Norfolk, spanning 2018 and 2019, he’s slashing .256/.356/.440 with 20 homers, 90 RBI, 88 runs, and 15 steals which is a pretty solid stat but belies his overall profile. Stewart is a fringy defensive outfielder and has fringy arm strength but he is capable of being a fourth outfielder type at the major league level and an everyday starter in a pinch.