Yes, injuries have always had a massive impact on the outcome of many a fantasy football season, but have we seen anything as brutal as we’ve seen this year? We saw a major wave of injuries strike earlier in the year, but these last two weeks have thrown potentially playoff-bound owners into a waiver-wire frenzy. Recovery may not be impossible, but picking up the pieces sure isn’t going to be easy.

The running back position has been in shambles all season long and took another casualty this week in Target Watch favorite Dion Lewis. He was the fourth most-targeted running back in the league and had finally given Tom Brady and the Patriots that added dimension to the passing game they hadn’t had since the days of Kevin Faulk. But with Lewis now on Injured Reserve with a torn ACL, the Patriots now have to either look at other pass-catching back options or go back to the way things were before Lewis.

The early speculation is that James White, a healthy inactive in Week 9, will see the biggest increase in work while Brandon Bolden, who saw the extra targets when Lewis went down, will remain in his complementary role. How much we can trust that speculation, though, is still a bit up in the air. White hasn’t done much to impress this year and Bill Belichick is notorious for his random and unpredictable use of running backs. White may get the first look, but one mistake and he could be headed to his coach’s doghouse immediately.

But the injuries don’t stop there. Allen Hurns is battling a foot issue and Malcom Floyd is likely done for the season with a torn labrum in his shoulder. But where the injuries are really going to impact fantasy owners is at the quarterback position. When the dust finally settled on Week 9, Ben Roethlisberger was back on the shelf with a foot sprain, Teddy Bridgewater was concussed and Andrew Luck was handed a 2-to-6 week timetable to recover from a lacerated kidney.

We discuss the on-field rapport between quarterback and wide receiver all the time and how it affects the target distribution on each team, so when these QBs hit the shelf, there’s a serious ripple-effect to be felt among the likes of Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant,  Stefon Diggs, and T.Y. Hilton. We’re not saying they’re all going into the tank, but let’s face it – would Brown have racked up 284 receiving yards with Landry Jones under center all game? If Bridgewater is out, will Shaun Hill be able to get the ball to Diggs downfield? Maybe Matt Hasselbeck can be serviceable for the Colts, but in his two starts, Hilton had a total of 12 catches for 155 yards with no touchdowns and only one catch for more than 20 yards.

The Colts have a bye this week so they can at least regroup and Hilton and Hasselbeck can spend two weeks preparing for their Week 11 matchup with the Falcons, but the Steelers and Vikings are going to have to attack this one on the fly right now. Jones and Brown have a long way to go this week with regard to building a rapport and the Vikings will sit with bated breath and hope the NFL concussion protocol is kind to Bridgewater. These are factors you’re going to have to take into account this week and in some cases, there may be some tough start/sit choices to make. Perhaps a look at the target numbers from Week 9 can help you along.

Week 9 Target Leaders

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Antonio Brown, PIT – Obviously we have to acknowledge the performance as it was certainly one for the ages. But as we just said, things are likely to be a lot different once again with Big Ben on the shelf. He did have a 124-yard performance with Landry Jones under center in Week 7, but in the four games without Roethlisberger, Brown collected just 17 catches for 235 yards with no touchdowns. In fact, during that stretch, Brown never even saw double-digit targets in a game.

Mike Evans, TB – Since coming out of the Week 6 bye, Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston has been locked onto Evans game in and game out. Sure, it helps that Vincent Jackson and Austin Seferian-Jenkins have been out with injuries, but even when they return, with the rapport even more solidified, Evans is going to continue seeing the heavy target load come his way. If you didn’t already assume he was a must-start regardless of matchup, you can be assured that he is the rest of the way.

Jordan Matthews, PHI – It only took nine weeks to get there, but finally, Matthews posted the type of game fantasy owners had been expecting all year long. Perhaps the hand injury we were alerted to two weeks ago is now a non-factor and we can happily move forward, but don’t go putting all your eggs into his basket just yet. There are still plenty of offensive weapons on the Eagles and the work can certainly shift elsewhere, but with a matchup against a soft Bucs pass defense this week, Matthews is definitely worth starting and seeing how things end up.

Randall Cobb, GB – Another welcomed sight for fantasy owners as Cobb finally delivered his first legitimate fantasy performance in five weeks. With the ground game continuing to falter, you can probably expect Aaron Rodgers to simply take matters into his own hands and start chucking the ball around the field. Minnesota’s pass defense should be a nice test in Week 10, but our money remains on Rodgers and Cobb to rekindle their bromance and keep putting fantasy points up on the board.

Cole Beasley, DAL – Enjoy it while you can. Once Tony Romo returns to the Cowboys, you can expect a whole lot more Dez Bryant with a nice splash of Terrance Williams and Jason Witten.

Stevie Johnson, SD – Coming into this week, Malcom Floyd was expected to be Philip Rivers’ primary target in the absence of Keenan Allen. Now with Floyd hurt, Johnson steps in as the likely top-target. Antonio Gates will still see plenty of action, but Johnson’s value now gets a legitimate increase.

Overall Targets Leaderboard

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Target Percentage Leaders

Jamison Crowder, WAS – He’s been under the radar throughout most of the season and with 16.8 percent of the targets, he’s obviously been a decent option for Kirk Cousins in the Redskins' passing game. But now with two weeks of a healthy Jordan Reed, he’s slipped to third on the team and with DeSean Jackson working his way back into the mix, Crowder is likely to start disappearing from the leaderboard.

Jacob Tamme, ATL – It looks like Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has finally realized he is better off relying on the tight end than he is secondary receivers. Roddy White has been M.I.A. all season and Leonard Hankerson is having a really tough time getting healthy. While Julio Jones will continue to dominate the looks, Tamme’s increasing 14.8-percent target rate is going to keep him in the conversation for tight ends to start each week.

Red Zone Target Leaders

Tyler Eifert, CIN – This week was another big one for Eifert and it, once again, solidified him as a major red zone target for Andy Dalton. He had just three red zone targets which resulted in three touchdowns in the two games leading up to the Bengals' bye week and when they came back in Week 8, he was completely absent. If there was any doubt creeping into your fantasy mind, you can bury it deep down as he looks for his very first double-digit touchdown season.

Travis Kelce, KC – Don’t go sleeping on Kelce here, even with a tough matchup against the Broncos in Week 10. He’s been a little on the quiet side lately with just one touchdown in his last seven games, but once teams start to fixate on stopping Charcandrick West, Alex Smith is going to have to start airing it out a little bit more. With a 26.5-percent red zone target rate still, Kelce should start to put more points up on the board.

 

Potential Risers

Stevie Johnson
Marvin Jones
Stefon Diggs
Zach Ertz
Shane Vereen

Potential Fallers

Jamison Crowder
John Brown
Anquan Boldin
Coby Fleener
Theo Riddick

Week 10 Matchup to Watch

New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins – The Saints have the worst pass defense in the NFL and have now given up 83 points in the last two games. Cousins may not be the be-all, end-all of quarterbacks, but with both Jordan Reed and DeSean Jackson rejoining Pierre Garcon and Jamison Crowder, the Redskins have more than enough weapons to keep the Saints' secondary running around like chickens with their heads cut off. On the other side, Drew Brees has been very much in-sync with his receivers and while the Redskins' secondary is a little healthier this week than it’s been recently, we’re still talking about the 21st-ranked pass defense. Willie Snead, Brandin Cooks and, hopefully, Benjamin Watson, continue to be heavily targeted throughout the game. With an over/under of 50.5, you can expect some serious fireworks.