The Phoenix Mercury were one of the most-hyped teams coming into the Wubble thanks to the formation of their new big three. Their championship aspirations were derailed when Brittney Griner went down, though they had struggled to a .500 record with Griner. Phoenix is flying under the radar to a large degree this season despite getting Griner back and adding former All-WNBA player Kia Nurse. With those four, Phoenix has a chance to contend, though we said that last season.
2020 Results
13-9 Record, Fifth in the league. Lost to the Minnesota Lynx in the second round.
Offseason Moves
Traded the No. 6 overall draft pick and their 2022 first-round pick to the New York Liberty for Kia Nurse and Megan Walker.
Re-signed Shey Peddy
Re-signed Diana Taurasi
Draft Results
Phoenix did not have a pick until the third round and used that on Texas A&M center Ciera Johnson, who they later waived.
Offseason Breakdown
The Mercury bought low on Kia Nurse while also bringing in 2020 ninth overall draft pick Megan Walker. Nurse was miscast in New York as a top-two offensive option thanks in part to Sabrina Ionescu’s season-ending injury, but she should be a perfect fit in Phoenix. She will guard the opposing team’s best perimeter player every night while spotting up for threes and attacking closeouts. She will have a much easier time on offense playing next to Skylar Diggins-Smith, Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner. Bria Hartley filled that role incredibly well last season, and Nurse was much better in New York than Hartley was. Phoenix found the best possible replacement for Hartley while she recovers from a torn ACL.
That was basically Phoenix’s only move of the offseason, and as a result, there will be a lot of pressure on their young bench players to show some growth from last season.
Projected Starting 5:
PG Skylar Diggins-Smith
SG Diana Taurasi
SF Kia Nurse
PF Brianna Turner
C Brittney Griner
This has been the easiest starting lineup to construct by far. Diggins-Smith, Taurasi, Turner and Griner started every game they played in the Wubble, with Sophie Cunningham and Shatori Walker-Kimbrough splitting time at the three. Walker-Kimbrough is gone and Nurse is a better two-way player than Cunningham, especially considering Cunningham shot just 23.5 percent on threes last season. I suppose maybe Megan Walker could start at the three if they wanted Kia Nurse to run the second unit, but that seems like a stretch considering Walker couldn’t even get a start with New York last season.
2021 Outlook
Assuming Kia Nurse bounces back as I expect, Phoenix’s starting lineup is as good as anyone’s. They have shooting, playmaking, defense, rebounding, size and athleticism. Where Phoenix could be in trouble is the bench. The Mercury have never had an effective backup for Brittney Griner, and that remains the case. Kia Vaughn has had a long career but has rarely ever stood out, with just one season over 10 points per game. She hasn’t averaged 5.0 rebounds per game since 2014. Phoenix cannot afford for Griner to get injured or have foul trouble or get suspended, all of which have been issues for her at various times in her career.
The rest of the backups are a bit more interesting. Megan Walker wasn’t great last season, but that was true of all of New York’s rookies after Sabrina Ionescu went out. She has the size to fill in at either forward position, and she could fit well next to Alanna Smith. Smith’s three-point shot is still a work in progress but she doubled her minutes from her rookie season and was far more effective on two-point shots. You could do worse than a bench unit of Smith, Walker, Vaughn and Sophie Cunningham. The problem is that those four need someone to run the offense and break down defenses, and with Bria Hartley out, that player does not exist. Shey Peddy will probably be the other rotation member, and I think Phoenix will bring either Diggins-Smith or Taurasi out of the game early so that they can come back to play with the bench unit. That can work, but there isn’t much margin for error for either unit. There are plenty of teams like Connecticut, Washington and New York who are one star injury away from potentially missing the playoffs, but what sets Phoenix apart is they really can’t afford for anyone to miss time.
Betting Outlook
Phoenix has fallen to +1100 to win the championship as bettors have finally caught on to how good Chicago and Minnesota are. I think any of the top eight teams have a legit chance to win it all, and I think Phoenix is better than Connecticut and possibly even Washington, so I could definitely be talked into this bet. I think I’m probably staying away from their over/under 51.5 win percentage as well. Phoenix was 6-6 last season before Brittney Griner left the Wubble, and while I think this team is better, I don’t know if they have improved enough to keep up with the rest of the league.
If I had to pick one of the big three to bet for MVP, it would be Skylar Diggins-Smith at +4000. You could make an argument she is the best point guard in the league, and it isn’t much of a leap from there to MVP, though it may take an injury to Griner or Taurasi for Diggins-Smith to get real consideration.
Fantasy Outlook
Kia Nurse has been my fantasy kryptonite for a couple of seasons now, and if she doesn’t have a Bria Hartley-Esque breakout in Phoenix, I may have to finally give up on her. Hartley proved there is room on this team for a third guard to break out, and Nurse should get some rebounds, assists and steals to go with whatever scoring she gives you.
At some point, Diana Taurasi has to show some signs of slowing down, but she was one of the best players in the league last season. Now that teams are traveling again, we just have to keep an eye out for the back injuries that have hampered her in previous seasons. Until then, though, Taurasi should be one of the safest guards in the league. That also applies to Skylar Diggins-Smith. Diggins-Smith is more prone to the occasional poor shooting night, but you can pretty much count on at least 5-6 assists per game, which gives her an awfully high floor.
Brianna Turner was brilliant last season with Brittney Griner out, and is a bit overpriced now that Griner is back. Turner showed she is a must-start when Griner sits, and once her price falls some, I think she will be useful in games Griner plays.
Barring an unforeseen breakout or a couple of injuries, it is difficult to imagine anyone else on this team will be consistently relevant for fantasy. That being said, Sophie Cunningham should be a better shooter than what she has shown thus far and Alanna Smith and Megan Walker both have some upside.