After Sabrina Ionescu was injured in her third WNBA game, I don’t think anyone would have blamed the Liberty if they simply added the number one pick in the draft, let Ionescu get some experience with the rest of New York’s young players and added another high draft pick in 2022. Instead, New York traded for one of the best veterans in the league. The result this may be largely the same, but it will certainly be more interesting to watch.

2020 Results

2-20 Record, last in the league. Won the WNBA Draft Lottery for the third consecutive season.

Offseason Moves

- Traded the number one overall pick for Natasha Howard and Sami Whitcomb.

- Signed free agent Betnijah Laney.

- Signed free agent Rebecca Allen.

- Signed Kiah Stokes to a contract extension.

- Traded Kia Nurse and Megan Walker to Phoenix for the 6th pick in 2021 and Phoenix’s 2022 first-round pick.

Draft Results

The Liberty selected Michaela Onyenwere from UCLA with the sixth overall pick in the draft. Onyenwere has talked about working on shooting threes in the preseason, and if she can do that effectively, she could emerge from among the glut of young forwards on this New York Liberty roster. There are plenty of minutes available on this team for anyone who can be a two-way player, and if Onyenwere plays well initially, she could easily lead this rookie class in minutes.

Offseason Breakdown

I have gone back and forth over the Liberty’s trade for Natasha Howard. I think I would have liked to see what a team with Sabrina Ionescu, Charli Collier, Betinjah Laney and Kia Nurse could do. I think Nurse would have been a great fit with Ionescu, and she is five years younger than Natasha Howard.

That being said, I have come around on this trade. If you can get an MVP candidate for a reasonable price you should probably do it, and at 30 years old, Howard should still play at a high level for at least the next four to five years. If you keep the number one pick, you would hope she would become Natasha Howard in a few years. Now they have that player locked in. When you don’t make this kind of move and just keep picking high in the draft year after year, you wind up like the Indiana Fever. At the very least, not being like the Fever is a good thing.

The downside to this trade is New York still has a long way to go to put a good team around Howard and Ionescu. Betnijah Laney is a good two-way player, assuming the offensive gains she made last season are real. Beyond those three players, there is no one on this roster who is definitely a rotation player on a playoff team.

There was a lot made on Twitter of the Rebecca Allen signing, and at first blush, I thought the signing was overrated. Allen has averaged just over 12.2 minutes per game in her five WNBA seasons, and if she couldn’t play more than that with New York the last three seasons when the team was terrible, it was hard to see how she would make a difference now that the team has more talent. That being said, Allen and Sami Whitcomb should get a lot of open looks spotting up with Ionescu and Howard drawing defensive attention. Their floor spacing is quite valuable on this team, even if they do not provide much else.

Projected Starting Five

PG Sabrina Ionescu

SG Sami Whitcomb

SF Betnijah Laney

PF Kiah Stokes

C Natasha Howard

The Liberty have said they are going to shoot a bunch of threes this season, so I think it makes sense to start Sami Whitcomb. They have other options on the wing, but I think Layshia Clarendon, Jazmine Jones and the others are better for the second unit. Betnijah Laney can take the toughest defensive assignments and Sabrina Ionescu can handle the ball while Whitcomb just stands at the three-point line.

Ionescu, Laney and Natasha Howard will definitely start, and Kiah Stokes is probably a good bet to start as well. Stokes led the Liberty in minutes played and games started last season, and while I don’t think she is a starter on a playoff team, none of New York’s second-year players did enough in the Wubble to take her starting job. That could change this season, but it should be Stokes’s job to lose.

2021 Outlook

As was pointed out on the WNBA draft telecast, the Sabrina Ionescu/Natasha Howard pick-and-roll should be lethal. They will have shooting around that pick-and-roll with Sami Whitcomb, Rebecca Allen and Betnijah Laney. The problem for this team is that Laney is the only player who is above-average both defensively and shooting threes. Whitcomb and Allen are shooting specialists, while none of New York’s first or second-year players have proven they can shoot.

If some of those young players can emerge as average or above-average rotation players this season, New York could contend for a playoff spot. Otherwise, this team will probably finish 11th.

Even in the best-case scenario, I think this team will struggled offensively when Ionescu and Howard are on the bench. Jazmine Jones flashed at times as a rookie and Layshia Clarendon is a good ball-handler and passer, but neither is going to break down a defense consistently.

Defensively, this team could be a disaster. Stokes and Howard are both good, but I don’t think they’re slowing down the best post players in the league. Laney could win Defensive Player of the Year some day, but she can only guard one wing player at a time. Young teams typically struggle defensively and I expect that to be the case for New York this season.

Betting Outlook

Of the four lottery teams from 2020, I think New York has the highest ceiling. They have two MVP candidates, and if they can get enough from their young players and some other teams have bad injury luck, I could see New York sneaking into the playoffs. That being said, I cannot tell any story that ends with them winning the WNBA title. Even at +6000, I am purely staying away from this bet.

If I am going to bet on this team, it will be Natasha Howard or Sabrina Ionescu +3000 to win the WNBA MVP. Of the two I think I would bet on Howard. She finished fifth in MVP voting in 2019 and I think she has an excellent chance to lead the league in usage after she was fourth in 2019. That being said, this is likely the best price you will get on a Sabrina Ionescu MVP bet for a long time. Her name recognition helps her case as well.

Fantasy Outlook

Natasha Howard led the league in fantasy points per game in 2019 with Breanna Stewart out, but Howard never really got it going after Stewart returned in 2020. Howard may find that it is more difficult to score when the defense only has to worry about stopping one other player, but her usage and fantasy production should be through the roof once again. She should be a nice fantasy value to start the season.

Speaking of that other player, Sabrina Ionescu should benefit from not having to do everything herself. He shot 4-17 from the floor in her first WNBA game and 11-20 in her second. I think the 4-17 games will be less frequent with Howard around to help shoulder the offensive load. That being said, I doubt I’ll play Sabrina much for fantasy unless her price falls or she proves she is the best guard in the league. I see no reason to pay up for Sabrina when I can pay the same or even less for DeWanna Bonner, Arike Ogunbowale or Diana Taurasi.

Aside from Ionescu, the only Liberty player I am definitely fading is Kiah Stokes. Every once in a while Stokes will grab 10+ rebounds or make a few shots, but she will never be the focal point of an offense or make enough plays on defense to be useful for fantasy.

I could be talked into Betnijah Laney, but like Ionescu, I think Laney is too volatile for her price. She was great in Atlanta but she hasn’t proven she can be productive outside of that environment. I would much rather play one of the proven commodities in her price range than take the risk that Laney struggles initially with her new club.

The rest of this team is full of potential bargains, assuming one or two players can consolidate playing time and take a step up from last year. The best bet in that regard is probably Michaela Onyenwere, if for no other reason than we haven’t seen her fail at this level yet. That being said, it wouldn’t shock me if Kylee Shook, Joyner Holmes, Leaonna Odom or Jazmine Jones broke out in their second seasons.