UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos Cheat Sheet, 9/26
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos. The UFC returns to the Meta APEX in Las Vegas as a ranked bantamweight contender bout headlines between two fighters at very different points in their careers. Raul Rosas Jr. is just 21 years old and already a ranked prospect, while Raoni Barcelos is a 39-year-old veteran on a five-fight win streak looking to stay relevant in a division that favors youth and speed. The fights kick off at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+ with the Prelims, and the Main Card starts at 8:00 PM ET.
Check out all the latest UFC odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos | 8600/7600 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -155/ +130 | 200/380 |
Rosas is the younger fighter and pushes a hellacious pace, which will be tough for Raoni to match. On the feet, Raoni has the advantage, but I don’t think it is going to stay standing for too long. Rosas will eventually wear down Barcelos over the five rounds and win the fight either by submission or decision. Either way, Rosas has a huge ceiling because he has shown he can land 10+ takedowns in a fight. | |||||
Expensive Fighters
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Rinya Nakamura | 9400 | Brady Hiestand | Somewhat-Safe | -350 | -105 |
Nakamura is powerful and has great wrestling as well. Hiestand is a huge question mark since he has been out for nearly two years with a torn ACL. I wouldn’t be surprised if this was Hiestand’s retirement fight. | |||||
Rodolfo Bellato | 9100 | Christian Edwards | Somewhat-Safe | -180 | 125 |
Bellato normally takes a little while to get going, but he has a winnable fight this week. He has a big advantage on the ground if it gets there. | |||||
Montel Jackson | 9000 | Ricky Simon | Somewhat-Safe | -200 | 200 |
He has size and power that an aging Ricky Simon won’t be able to deal with. He doesn’t land much volume, but he does have upside with his finishing ability. | |||||
Mehemmedeli Osmanli | 8800 | Ilimbek Akylbek | Moderate | -250 | 110 |
Mehemmedeli is a great athlete, but this is a matchup of two unproven fighters. He has a great ITD line for his price, but we haven’t seen him against UFC level competition so I’m not as confident in him as I would normally be for this price and odds. | |||||
Mid-Range Fighters
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Rodolfo Vieira | 8500 | Robert Bryczek | Moderate | -160 | 130 |
This fight likely ends inside the distance, but it is a tight fight. I don’t love playing Vieira, but he does have great submission skills if he can get the fight on the ground early. | |||||
Ailin Perez | 8400 | Norma Dumont | Moderate | -135 | 200.0 |
Perez has great cardio and wrestling, and she’ll need to get the fight on the ground if she wants to win this matchup. She has big upside even in a decision thanks to how she relentlessly chases takedowns. | |||||
Josiah Harrell | 8200 | Elves Brener | Somewhat-Risky | -130 | 240 |
I like both sides of this fight. Harrell has decent wrestling, and if he gets to the ground, he wins the fight, but he has a very suspect chin. He also has major brain issues, so I don’t love how he is cutting extra weight this week to try out a new weight class. High risk or high reward. | |||||
Elves Brener | 8000 | Josiah Harrell | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | 240 |
Brener is a dog and has shown that he can fight for fifteen full minutes. This will be very competitive on the feet, and as long as he avoids the ground, he should win this fight. | |||||
John Castaneda | 8700 | Alateng Heili | Moderate | -300 | 330 |
Castaneda throws way more volume than Heili and should be able to win a decision pretty easily. I like his chances to win, but don’t like his upside since this likely won’t finish inside the distance. | |||||
Paydown Fighters
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Robert Bryczek | 7700 | Rodolfo Vieira | Risky | +135 | 215 |
Vieira will tire out at some point, and that is when Bryczek will be able to take advantage. If he keeps it standing early on, then he will be able to dictate the fight. The floor is lava for the first round of this fight for Bryczek. | |||||
Ricky Simon | 7200 | Montel Jackson | Risky | +170 | 700 |
Simon used to be a volume and wrestling guy, which was the way to beat Jackson, but he hasn’t wrestled recently. If he decides to wrestle, he has a chance to win this fight. | |||||
Norma Dumont | 7800 | Ailin Perez | Risky | +115 | 600 |
She needs to keep it standing and actually has better odds to win inside the distance than the favorite Perez. I don’t like her upside on DK, but she is an underdog who can win. | |||||
Ilimbek Akylbek | 7400 | Mehemmedeli Osmanli | Risky | +200 | 450 |
This is a very volatile fight. Both of these fighters are new to the roster, so I won’t be surprised at all if he wins this fight quickly, especially after seeing Gable Stevenson lose as a -2500 favorite last week. | |||||
Brady Hiestand | 7000 | Rinya Nakamura | Risky | +275 | 600.0 |
Brady can wrestle a little bit and throws up volume. He is two years removed from an ACL tear, so he may come back looking like a completely new fighter. He’ll need to have a career-best performance to win this fight. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Barcelos, Simon, Bryczek, Hiestand
Picks and Stats
Raul Rosas Jr. | vs | Raoni Barcelos |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
12-1-0 | Record | 22-5-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 8 |
6 | Subs | 3 |
-155 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
Rinya Nakamura | vs | Brady Hiestand |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
10-1-0 | Record | 9-2-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 3 |
1 | Subs | 3 |
-350 | Vegas Odds | +275 |
Rodolfo Vieira | vs | Robert Bryczek |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
11-5-0 | Record | 18-7-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 12 |
9 | Subs | 1 |
-160 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
Montel Jackson | vs | Ricky Simon |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
15-4-0 | Record | 22-7-1 |
8 | Knockouts | 7 |
1 | Subs | 4 |
-200 | Vegas Odds | +170 |
Rodolfo Bellato | vs | Christian Edwards |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
13-3-1 | Record | 8-5-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 4 |
4 | Subs | 2 |
-180 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
Luis Hernandez | vs | Sedriques Dumas |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
8-0-0 | Record | 10-5-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 5 |
2 | Subs | 1 |
-230 | Vegas Odds | +190 |
Mehemmedeli Osmanli | vs | Ilimbek Akylbek |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
12-1-0 | Record | 10-3-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 2 |
8 | Subs | 6 |
-250 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
Ailin Perez | vs | Norma Dumont |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
13-2-0 | Record | 13-3-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 0 |
2 | Subs | 2 |
-135 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
Josiah Harrell | vs | Elves Brener |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
11-1-0 | Record | 16-6-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 3 |
4 | Subs | 11 |
-130 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
John Castaneda | vs | Alateng Heili |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
21-8-1 | Record | 17-10-2 |
6 | Knockouts | 5 |
4 | Subs | 3 |
-300 | Vegas Odds | +240 |
Yazmin Jauregui | vs | Vanessa Demopoulos |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
11-2-0 | Record | 11-8-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 3 |
2 | Subs | 4 |
-900 | Vegas Odds | +600 |
Melissa Amaya | vs | Valesca Machado |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
8-0-0 | Record | 15-4-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 5 |
2 | Subs | 1 |
+180 | Vegas Odds | -220 |
