UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos. The UFC returns to the Meta APEX in Las Vegas as a ranked bantamweight contender bout headlines between two fighters at very different points in their careers. Raul Rosas Jr. is just 21 years old and already a ranked prospect, while Raoni Barcelos is a 39-year-old veteran on a five-fight win streak looking to stay relevant in a division that favors youth and speed. The fights kick off at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+ with the Prelims, and the Main Card starts at 8:00 PM ET.

Check out all the latest UFC odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos

8600/7600

-

Stackability: Moderate

-155/ +130

200/380

Rosas is the younger fighter and pushes a hellacious pace, which will be tough for Raoni to match. On the feet, Raoni has the advantage, but I don’t think it is going to stay standing for too long. Rosas will eventually wear down Barcelos over the five rounds and win the fight either by submission or decision. Either way, Rosas has a huge ceiling because he has shown he can land 10+ takedowns in a fight.

Expensive Fighters

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Rinya Nakamura

9400

Brady Hiestand

Somewhat-Safe

-350

-105

Nakamura is powerful and has great wrestling as well.  Hiestand is a huge question mark since he has been out for nearly two years with a torn ACL. I wouldn’t be surprised if this was Hiestand’s retirement fight.

Rodolfo Bellato

9100

Christian Edwards

Somewhat-Safe

-180

125

Bellato normally takes a little while to get going, but he has a winnable fight this week. He has a big advantage on the ground if it gets there.

Montel Jackson

9000

Ricky Simon

Somewhat-Safe

-200

200

He has size and power that an aging Ricky Simon won’t be able to deal with. He doesn’t land much volume, but he does have upside with his finishing ability.

Mehemmedeli Osmanli

8800

Ilimbek Akylbek

Moderate

-250

110

Mehemmedeli is a great athlete, but this is a matchup of two unproven fighters. He has a great ITD line for his price, but we haven’t seen him against UFC level competition so I’m not as confident in him as I would normally be for this price and odds.

Mid-Range Fighters

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Rodolfo Vieira

8500

Robert Bryczek

Moderate

-160

130

This fight likely ends inside the distance, but it is a tight fight. I don’t love playing Vieira, but he does have great submission skills if he can get the fight on the ground early.

Ailin Perez

8400

Norma Dumont

Moderate

-135

200.0

Perez has great cardio and wrestling, and she’ll need to get the fight on the ground if she wants to win this matchup.  She has big upside even in a decision thanks to how she relentlessly chases takedowns.

Josiah Harrell

8200

Elves Brener

Somewhat-Risky

-130

240

I like both sides of this fight.  Harrell has decent wrestling, and if he gets to the ground, he wins the fight, but he has a very suspect chin. He also has major brain issues, so I don’t love how he is cutting extra weight this week to try out a new weight class.  High risk or high reward.

Elves Brener

8000

Josiah Harrell

Somewhat-Risky

+110

240

Brener is a dog and has shown that he can fight for fifteen full minutes.  This will be very competitive on the feet, and as long as he avoids the ground, he should win this fight.

John Castaneda

8700

Alateng Heili

Moderate

-300

330

Castaneda throws way more volume than Heili and should be able to win a decision pretty easily.  I like his chances to win, but don’t like his upside since this likely won’t finish inside the distance.

Paydown Fighters

Pay-Downs

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Robert Bryczek

7700

Rodolfo Vieira

Risky

+135

215

Vieira will tire out at some point, and that is when Bryczek will be able to take advantage.  If he keeps it standing early on, then he will be able to dictate the fight. The floor is lava for the first round of this fight for Bryczek.

Ricky Simon

7200

Montel Jackson

Risky

+170

700

Simon used to be a volume and wrestling guy, which was the way to beat Jackson, but he hasn’t wrestled recently.  If he decides to wrestle, he has a chance to win this fight.

Norma Dumont

7800

Ailin Perez

Risky

+115

600

She needs to keep it standing and actually has better odds to win inside the distance than the favorite Perez.  I don’t like her upside on DK, but she is an underdog who can win.

Ilimbek Akylbek

7400

Mehemmedeli Osmanli

Risky

+200

450

This is a very volatile fight.  Both of these fighters are new to the roster, so I won’t be surprised at all if he wins this fight quickly, especially after seeing Gable Stevenson lose as a -2500 favorite last week.

Brady Hiestand

7000

Rinya Nakamura

Risky

+275

600.0

Brady can wrestle a little bit and throws up volume.  He is two years removed from an ACL tear, so he may come back looking like a completely new fighter.  He’ll need to have a career-best performance to win this fight.

Sample Lineup

Live Dogs

Barcelos, Simon, Bryczek, Hiestand

Picks and Stats

Raul Rosas Jr.

vs

Raoni Barcelos

$8,600

DFS Salary

$7,600

12-1-0

Record

22-5-0

2

Knockouts

8

6

Subs

3

-155

Vegas Odds

+130

 

Rinya Nakamura

vs

Brady Hiestand

$9,400

DFS Salary

$7,000

10-1-0

Record

9-2-0

6

Knockouts

3

1

Subs

3

-350

Vegas Odds

+275

 

Rodolfo Vieira

vs

Robert Bryczek

$8,500

DFS Salary

$7,700

11-5-0

Record

18-7-0

1

Knockouts

12

9

Subs

1

-160

Vegas Odds

+135

 

Montel Jackson

vs

Ricky Simon

$9,000

DFS Salary

$7,200

15-4-0

Record

22-7-1

8

Knockouts

7

1

Subs

4

-200

Vegas Odds

+170

 

Rodolfo Bellato

vs

Christian Edwards

$9,100

DFS Salary

$7,100

13-3-1

Record

8-5-0

8

Knockouts

4

4

Subs

2

-180

Vegas Odds

+150

 

Luis Hernandez

vs

Sedriques Dumas

$9,300

DFS Salary

$6,900

8-0-0

Record

10-5-0

4

Knockouts

5

2

Subs

1

-230

Vegas Odds

+190

 

Mehemmedeli Osmanli

vs

Ilimbek Akylbek

$8,800

DFS Salary

$7,400

12-1-0

Record

10-3-0

2

Knockouts

2

8

Subs

6

-250

Vegas Odds

+200

 

Ailin Perez

vs

Norma Dumont

$8,400

DFS Salary

$7,800

13-2-0

Record

13-3-0

4

Knockouts

0

2

Subs

2

-135

Vegas Odds

+115

 

Josiah Harrell

vs

Elves Brener

$8,200

DFS Salary

$8,000

11-1-0

Record

16-6-0

6

Knockouts

3

4

Subs

11

-130

Vegas Odds

+110

 

John Castaneda

vs

Alateng Heili

$8,700

DFS Salary

$7,500

21-8-1

Record

17-10-2

6

Knockouts

5

4

Subs

3

-300

Vegas Odds

+240

 

Yazmin Jauregui

vs

Vanessa Demopoulos

$9,500

DFS Salary

$6,700

11-2-0

Record

11-8-0

5

Knockouts

3

2

Subs

4

-900

Vegas Odds

+600

 

Melissa Amaya

vs

Valesca Machado

$7,900

DFS Salary

$8,300

8-0-0

Record

15-4-0

3

Knockouts

5

2

Subs

1

+180

Vegas Odds

-220